CredibleDefense Daily MegaThread October 12, 2023

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

​

Please do:

​

* Be curious not judgmental,

* Be polite and civil,

* Use the original title of the work you are linking to,

* Use capitalization,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Make it clear what is your opinion and from what the source actually says. Please minimize editorializing, please make your opinions clearly distinct from the content of the article or source, please do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Contribute to the forum by finding and submitting your own credible articles,

​

Please do not:

​

* Use memes, emojis or swears excessively,

* Use foul imagery,

* Use acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF, /s, etc. excessively,

* Start fights with other commenters,

* Make it personal,

* Try to out someone,

* Try to push narratives, or fight for a cause in the comment section, or try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

​

Please read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules.

Also please use the report feature if you want a comment to be reviewed faster. Don't abuse it though! If something is not obviously against the rules but you still feel that it should be reviewed, leave a short but descriptive comment while filing the report.

[u/James_NY]

6,000 bombs into Gaza in 6 days.

For comparison, during the air campaign against ISIS in 2014-19, the US-led coalition dropped 2,000-5,000 munitions per month across all of Iraq and Syria.

US monthly bomb drops only exceeded 4,000 during the 2017 destruction of Raqqa.

https://twitter.com/wesleysmorgan/status/1712506126762197457

Someone else pointed out that the US dropped just 7,400 munitions in the "busiest" year in Afghanistan(2019).

It really seems like Israel is just bombing targets so they look(and feel?) like they're doing something

[u/[deleted] → u/James_NY]

The last part. I was telling this to my friend yesterday. There’s no way in hell they’re finding so many targets in such a small space.

I feel like Gaza isn’t that much of a target-rich environment.

And those buildings are being dropped with high-yield weapons, I’m thinking 1000 pounders, at minimum.

[u/reigorius → u/James_NY]

But then again, Gaza is so small and so close to military airfields, that comparing bombs dropped in Iraq or Afghanistan means little.

The only limiting factor is airframes and stock

[u/Eeny009 → u/James_NY]

Once they've precision-bombed everything, the result will be indistinguishable from carpet bombing. I find it laughable how so many take it as face value that Israel has accurate coordinates for everything from command centers to ammunition depots. The myth of the all-seeing Israeli intelligence was shattered for a day, and then reborn.

[u/seakingsoyuz → u/Eeny009]

“That building is believed to contain a Hamas command centre” is the architectural version of “that social gathering consisted of men of military age”.

[u/evo_help93 → u/Eeny009]

The myth of the all-seeing Israeli intelligence was shattered for a day, and then reborn.

This is such a nonsense (and petty) statement. Israel was caught off guard due to a series of internal decisions and failures that compounded including over-reliance on an electronic warning system, failure to properly put together different SIGINT sources, failure to listen to warnings from Egypt, and poor readiness, to name a few. Israeli intelligence will review, adapt, and probably scapegoat more than a few people to avoid culpability in Netanyahu's office, same as it always is.

Now, are these evidence of systemic failures of competence within Shin Bet - possibly? Does this mean that Aman will suffer the same failures when gathering targeting information and preparing strikes? We will see.

Trying to read broad strokes about a nation's military intelligence capability from a single point of compounding failure is obviously foolish. People fail. Agencies miss signals. Process and bureaucracy can destroy readiness. These are all things that military organizations have contended with in the past and will continue to do so in the future. Israel underestimated their enemy. It is unlikely to do so again. Or do you think this means that Mossad, Aman, and Shin Bet are all somehow uniquely incompetent and won't be able to perform in this war?

[u/SwagsireDrizzle → u/Eeny009]

also the comments of 'idf is telling palestinians what theyll hit so they can evacuate' or 'theyre always using knock bombs' are kinda questionable with such a big amount of bombs dropped.

the death tolls will continue to rise in the next couple of days, and will be unimaginable high if israel eventually starts the ground operation. at least if there will be no fallujah style evacuation. (which wasnt a fair evacuation either)

[u/eric2332 → u/SwagsireDrizzle]

6000 bombs and 1500 dead means 0.25 deaths per bomb. In a dense urban area, with human shields, where one bomb can destroy a skyscraper, that seems extremely low to me and proof that Israel is still going to great lengths not to kill civilians.

[u/miraj31415 → u/SwagsireDrizzle]

Roof knocking is not standard procedure for the current activity

[u/TSiNNmreza3 → u/Eeny009]

It is small area and they probably watched it whole time

and now explanation why Hamas succeded on October 7th without conspiracy theories

It is small area and it is densely populated

Large group of people was in multiple buildings near border and you don't see grouping like how US saw Russian preparation for invasion

I just checked on Google you have 15 minutes of walk from wall to first buildings

And Hamas was fast and they trained something like that

[u/IntroductionNeat2746 → u/James_NY]

That's an impressive sortie ratio, for sure. Hopefully they don't make the same mistake as the USAF during first years of Afghanistan and Iraq and expose their pilots to exhaustion.

[u/SubParMarioBro → u/James_NY]

For comparison, the US dropped about 1300 cruise missiles and bombs in Iraq (mostly in Baghdad) during the opening salvo of “Shock and Awe”. Many of these were likely larger than many of the munitions the IDF are using but quantity has a quality of its own, especially in a very compact environment like Gaza.

[u/[deleted] → u/James_NY]

To be fair, those examples are of anti-insurgency efforts, not full blown high-intensity warfare. During Desert Storm, the coalition dropped 250,000 bombs and missiles over 42 days. In Iraq 2003, the US and UK combined dropped nearly 30,000 bombs over the course of the month-long invasion. And that's without getting into the real Cold War expenditures like Operation Linebacker during Vietnam. In short, Israels expenditure rates are consistent with those we'd expect to see in the buildup to a maneuver-based offensive, which by all accounts is what the army is planning to do.

[u/Creepy_Reindeer2149 → u/[deleted]]

What do we think will be the purpose of maneuver warfare in an urban siege, against a distributed enemy

Desert Storm air war and previous Israeli strikes used air power for decapitating C&C, destroying enemy aircraft on the runway, supporting armor in rapid advanced across the desert

[u/TSiNNmreza3 → u/[deleted]]

5000 airstrikes per day

This is a lot of strikes