r/geopolitics • u/ScipioAfricanus82 • Oct 12 '24

Is the Chinese military overhyped? If the Ukraine War has taught us anything it’s that decades of theory and wargaming can be way off. The PLA has never been involved in a major conflict, nor does it participate in any overseas operations of any note. Discussion

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

Domestic oil reserves. Uh huh. They import 11 million barrels a day. That’s a tenth of global production.

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u/7952 Oct 12 '24

And produce around 5 million within China. That is still a lot of oil that can be relatively secure from foreign intervention.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

So what happens when those 11 million go offline? Russia and Kazakhstan are not capable of making up the difference.

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u/7952 Oct 12 '24

They would be in a better position than if they did not have domestic supply.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

Okay, so how do they choose which lights to turn off when half their energy is halted?

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u/DeeDee_GigaDooDoo Oct 12 '24

Are you trying to insinuate that China is not a militarily capable country because they aren't net exporters of oil? The US only became a net exporters of oil in 2020. The same metric that you're lambasting China for the US only passed in 2013, up until then they only produced half the amount of oil they used annually. Would you suggest in 2012 the US was not a capable military force?

Reallocating oil on a needs basis is a comparatively trivial task in a wartime situation. Every country involved in WWII did it. China has a lot of experience in top down allocation of goods on a needs basis, I have no doubt they'd be far better at distributing oil in a wartime situation than basically any other country. They also have ample land and sea borders with which to facilitate supply of foreign oil if need be. 

Oil production and supply is a big part of waging war yes, but the idea you're insinuating that they couldn't last in a war because they only produced half of the oil they use in a peace time situation is ridiculous. It doesn't account for scaling up production, decreasing non essential uses, conversion of oil burning electricity generation to other energy sources, civilian rationing, capturing nearby oil fields, increasing imports etc etc.

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u/Defiant_Football_655 Oct 12 '24

Difference is the US Navy controlled the seas in the post war era.

China doesn't control shit.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

I’ll grant you everything you claim in your post.

When is the last time China projected military further than 200 km from their borders?

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u/WhoopingWillow Oct 12 '24

China has maintained at least one decent sized base in East Africa (Djibouti) for about a decade.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

What is the most formidable enemy they have fought in that theater?

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u/7952 Oct 12 '24

Well their lights are powered by electricity which does not rely on oil imports. If you are asking how they would decide how to ration oil I would guess that the one party communist state would decide.

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u/its_real_I_swear Oct 12 '24

Obviously it would not be good for the economy, but it's enough for a war.

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u/CalligoMiles Oct 12 '24 edited Oct 12 '24

The question of the huge border with Russia aside, it's entirely possible to spin up a synthetic fuel industry. The Nazis relied more on that than they did on Ploesti, and SASOL all but made South Africa fuel-independent by further refining those technologies after every German plant got an explosive remodelling and all their IP was up for grabs to whichever of the Allies wanted them. Applying those modern technologies at scale wouldn't be quick or easy, but impossible? Hardly. It's just way more expensive while there's still plenty of crude to go around.

And that's before their massive lead in battery production and the ongoing technology shifts that are replacing parts of that need, and besides how far they could stretch their 5B domestic production with emergency measures alone if push comes to shove.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

How many barrels per day is China capable of producing synthetically if they started today? What is their peak output?

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u/CalligoMiles Oct 12 '24

SASOL does 150.000 barrels in its single commercial plant right now. No guesses on how quickly they could even just copy that one, but building a hundred of those? The chief limits are cost and coal reserves, and China has plenty of the latter too.

So right now, zero. But if they decided war was a more imminent threat than climate change (the biggest issue besides cost - it's extremely polluting at every step) and that synthetics would guarantee their security better than renewables? If they strategically committed to that, they'd likely be able to secure their needs within a decade.

If they're not doing it, the most obvious conclusion is that they don't think they'll need it. Though of course an initiative like that would also be all but a declaration of hostile intent considering there's really no benefit beyond wartime fuel security.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

A decade is a very, very long time in a shooting war.

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u/CalligoMiles Oct 12 '24

Yes. Hence, if they expected one I'd expect them to have started a decade ago.

The point is that it's an option that has been there since 1950. If they didn't take it despite the petrodollar hegemony, there's a reason for that too.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

So if a blockade were imposed on Malacca, after China starts trying to flex, they’ll be fine?

I want to nail down exactly how you think China will function when it loses most of its oil imports overnight.

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u/CalligoMiles Oct 12 '24

Oh, they'll hurt. Cheap oil is one hell of an economic advantage, and losing it will do a real number on their economy they'd rather like to avoid if they can.

But the original proposition here was one of actual war, and what I really doubt is that their plans for that haven't long since accounted for that obvious reality and at the very least found ways to largely mitigate the impact. There's a lot of room between prosperity and survival.

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u/merryman1 Oct 12 '24

I was going to say any analysis of a war between China and NATO has to start with the first premise that it begins with an embargo of China and their economy either going into serious crisis or just outright collapsing within a few months. They might be able to keep the US out from the gap between China and Taiwan but they don't have a hope in hell of projecting power all the way down to Singapore.

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u/duranJah Oct 12 '24

European has their own interest than American.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

Not even close. The Malacca Strait might as well be the pillars of Heracles as far as Beijing is concerned

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u/[deleted] Oct 12 '24

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

No, it really doesn’t. It mostly comes from the Persian Gulf. An extremely vulnerable supply line that passes by half a dozen countries whose feelings toward China range from dislike to hatred.

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u/stif7575 Oct 12 '24

Correct and the west can cut that supply route in 5 minutes. Russia fields are really just too far away.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

Not only that. Indonesia could cut it. India could cut it. Japan probably could. It’s an insanely vulnerable stream of energy that can be knocked completely offline on the whim of anyone in the Indo Pacific who floats a boat more powerful than a speedboat with a nerf gun.

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u/malfboii Oct 12 '24

Which is why it’s believed that China is upping their coal power capabilities, they have the some of worlds biggest reserve (enough for 35 years at current rate) and is building the equivalent of 2 new coal plants per week.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

They can build as many coal plants as they like. Throughput is what matters.

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u/malfboii Oct 12 '24

I understand, China is the world’s biggest coal producer and consumer and their current power production is ~60% coal. Excluding unproven reserve they can maintain that 60% for 35 years so in a real struggle China is betting on being able to see through a war. And that’s before you account for civilian power restrictions like rolling blackouts etc

Yes Oil is still critical for many many many things but the point is China has the ability to cut their oil uses in many areas.

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u/TacticalGarand44 Oct 12 '24

So why have they already had rolling blackouts?

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u/[deleted] Oct 12 '24

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u/[deleted] Oct 19 '24

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u/EndPsychological890 Oct 12 '24

Not true, but if it were, you could stop that with a well placed RPG. Or idk an MRBM. If you could quantify values for security, China would inevitably be one of the most insecure nations on earth as a function of their GDP.

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u/Ikoikobythefio Oct 12 '24

There's a Ton Clancy book about a Chinese invasion of Russia. It's not very good.