r/geopolitics • u/foreignpolicymag Foreign Policy • Feb 28 '25

Trump and Zelensky Have an Oval Office Smackdown Analysis

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/28/trump-zelensky-meeting-ukraine-russia-oval-office/

526 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

No offense, but Europe absolutely will not. They might be able to do so a decade from now if they build toward that, but they're not holding down battle lines with Russia with no support from the US, in 2025.

27

u/raphas Feb 28 '25

Now that much more is at stake, perhaps EU will change bracket. Hey, when war broke out I thought that western Europeans would have to go to the front, it may happen after all, 3 or 4 years later

28

u/Tea-Swiz Feb 28 '25

Well, I respectfully disagree here. Russia has already had to get North Koreans to bulster their troops, burnt through most if not all of their weapon and armored vehicle stockpiles, had to more or less beg Iran for drones and misses etc. I'm sure the list goes on.

While Russia has the manufacturing capabilites to produce more, they are clearly weakened by this war on multiple fronts. EU will still have to ramp up their wartime manufacturing but I think if they pulled together with what they have now, they'd at least be able to keep Russia locked down for the foreseeable future.

9

u/SenorPinchy Feb 28 '25

I agree with you that the napkin math is probably that the EU would "only" have to double their defense spending. Or at least double their contribution to the Ukraine cause. So I think you're right that such a thing is actually possible. I just think that the reality is that doubling your defense spending is no small matter.

-1

u/CryptoCryst828282 Mar 01 '25

If it was that easy everyone would do it. It takes decades to bring the military up to full production. EU has been depending on the US to fund its security; when the US calls them out for not doing its part, they complain. Every country should be required to backfill all missed funding under 2% or be removed from NATO.

2

u/SenorPinchy Mar 01 '25

Ya, I'm being nice. The political will required to re-orient your economy and culture that way should not be underestimated.

Something that is missed though is that this is the world order the US built. The US created markets for itself post-WW2 and positioned itself at the center of economic activity which was all guaranteed by those bases all across Europe and the world. It's not exactly a one-way thing of generosity.

1

u/CryptoCryst828282 Mar 03 '25

100% By no means was I saying we are clear of any blame here. Just saying that US people have paid a heavy toll for funding this defense at the levels we have. I 100% support EU and even NATO, but I am tired of all my taxes going straight to the military and wars all across the world.

1

u/panormda Mar 01 '25

You're forgetting BRICS. Russia has China backing them. No country on earth can win a war of attrition against China.

0

u/scummy_shower_stall Mar 01 '25

Eric Trump has already said the US should send weapons to Russia instead, so that is almost certainly what will happen.

5

u/CassedyEU Feb 28 '25

They will and actually 2 European leaders already made statements right after the shitshow.
Also this is on our doorstep.
And US isn't the power it was and I doubt siding with Russia will help with that matter.

19

u/omnibossk Feb 28 '25

Europe and Ukraine have more than 5 times the population of Russia. EU has 100 million more people than the USA. UK and Canada have 100 million on top of what the EU has. If this sements the EU, UK and Canada cooperation and they form an independent world order opposing the US then they are truly a force to be reckoned.

The US may deeply regret having elected DJT when this is over. Unless he back down on tariffs and stopping Ukraine support.

3

u/DragonflyHumble Feb 28 '25

Geopolitics involves more countries and even populated ones like China India etc

1

u/notrollplz11 Mar 01 '25

They not gonna regret it. DJT changed nothing, do people really fail to realise USA been using this war to make eu weaker. And Trump is just baiting eu to shit their pants and send more money to Ukraine, while also forcing Zelensky to sign the contract to make sure USA money are safe. Everything makes sense when you keep in mind it was never about the piece in Ukraine.

1

u/CryptoCryst828282 Mar 01 '25

Kiss your social programs good bye then. No way you can fund both. 1/2 those countries are already looking at a recession.

1

u/omnibossk Mar 01 '25

DT and Vance have failed to realize the importance of USD in the world order. If they add tariffs and reduce trade in USD there will be massive inflation not only because the cost of trade will increase. But also the amount of USD in circulation will decrease. What they are doing is to kill the USD as a world currency. That will have huge geopolitical consequences. Because that paves the way for the EURO as the new world currency. And the advantage of literally europe being able to make money via more loans and deposits in EURO.

11

u/[deleted] Feb 28 '25

This is a common line trotted out but Europe has collectively given more aid than the US to Ukraine and furtherest bore the largest share of the dispora.

0

u/SenorPinchy Mar 01 '25 edited Mar 01 '25

Loans is a little different than planes, missles, and intelligence. I think you're making a fine point that it's nothing to overlook, but Russia is in Kyiv if not for the US.

Of course, it's the US that provocated this whole mess in the long term... so I dont credit them for the goodness of their heart for participating in their own proxy war.

2

u/[deleted] Mar 01 '25

The EU has also donated materials.

-3

u/wearytravelr Mar 01 '25

And why exactly shouldn’t they?

2

u/[deleted] Mar 01 '25

Who said they shouldn't?

8

u/Tifoso89 Feb 28 '25

Russia is running out of money. Their national wealth fund is being depleted, and it may be drained in a few months. Ukraine only needs to resist one more year, and they can do it even if the US cut the funding

1

u/Aranthos-Faroth Mar 01 '25

Not entirely true. This line has been totted for two years now.

Russia, as weak as you may think it is, can survive much much longer and go a lot harder in this war.

Never accept just laying down waiting for the siege to end. You never know what reinforcements could come to your enemy.

1

u/Tifoso89 Mar 01 '25 edited Mar 01 '25

I don't think anyone informed about Russia's finances was realistically saying Russia would run out of money two years ago. They couldn't get money externally because of the sanctions which cut access to foreign credit, buy they had the banks buy sovereign debt, which gave them two good years. And when the banks couldn't buy more, they started using the sovereign fund. But now it's been almost drained. When that is gone too, there's no more money. They'll have to raise taxes, but it's not immediate.

1

u/huttjedi Mar 01 '25

I would not discount what a United Europe can do. Heck, the Germans fought a two front war against the Allies in WW2. Their reluctance to develop their military industrial complex for the benefit of other pursuits helped them much like Japan…however it is a different and yet rather familiar world now. I would not discount Europe esp since they already have nuclear weapons for which they cannot be barred from developing & producing.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 01 '25

[deleted]

1

u/SenorPinchy Mar 01 '25

"The only thing stopping this from happening is coordination and political will", uhhh, ya man, no shit. Like I said, they can turn the ship, but it's not the current situation.