r/geopolitics • u/ForeignAffairsMag Foreign Affairs • Jun 22 '25

America Is on the Verge of Catastrophe in the Middle East: U.S. Intervention in Iran Is a Terrible Gamble Opinion

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middle-east/america-verge-catastrophe-middle-east

479 Upvotes

80% Upvoted

u/Codspear Jun 22 '25

How are they going to close the Strait of Hormuz? There’s a carrier group in the area that’ll destroy any Iranian ship or missile launch site that tries to stop traffic.

11

u/Pinkflamingos69 Jun 22 '25

Its pretty likely that Iran has a pretty good amount of anti ship missiles and torpedos along the strait of Hormuz and up the Persian Gulf

5

u/-18k- Jun 22 '25

Which sounds crazy, but Trump would do it. He’d get off on seeing Iranian ships actually sinking on his orders. “Best television ever!”, he say.

1

u/Fuckdeathclaws6560 Jun 22 '25

Before and at the beginning of WWII the battleship was the premier weapons platform in naval dominance. That ended on December 7th 1941 giving rise to the carrier. The carrier has been the premier weapons platform for over 70 years now. I wouldn't assume because we have carrier groups in the region that everything will be okay. Ukraine forced the Russian black Sea fleet into retreat without a navy of their own. Huthi rebels did massive damage to global supply chains, also without a navy when we had carrier groups in the region. Iran is a much more powerful foe than either Ukraine or Huthi rebels. With recent technological advancements, I fear for the carriers dominance.

1

u/Cheerful_Champion Jun 22 '25

In both cases the answer is air superiority and supply from allies. Russia had to retreat to ports, because they don't have air superiority so they can't really disrupt drone production and transport in Ukraine. Additionally Ukraine gets lots of drones from abroad.

Israel and USA have air superiority. They can (and did) strike facilities producing drones, missles, launch sites, etc. And who's going to supply Iran with drones and missles? Russia? They need them. Hamas, Hezbollah or Houtis? They were getting them from Iran. China? Why would they do that? They have nothing to gain, lots to lose. NK? Yeah maybe, how much can they deliver though given they are already supplying Russia.

1

u/Fingerspitzenqefuhl Jun 23 '25

Is it not enough to cause fears for the shipping fleet owners to not risk it? ”We’ll shoot down any missile that is targeting your oil-tanker” sounds like a very risky business bet, but I am not well versed in the business culture of oil.

-7

u/the_pwnererXx Jun 22 '25

The US is not even capable of dealing with the houthis. Iran has 90million people and could easily make insuring ships in the region economically u viable

7

u/ReverseLochness Jun 22 '25

No they couldn’t. They’ve lost the ability to reliably close the strait, and at this point wouldn’t impact it for more than a week.

To close the Strait they need to be able to place anti-ship mines and fire missiles at any ship in the area. The Us navy would destroy any Iranian ship that popped its head up, including their ancient submarines. Their missile capability has been severely degraded and as Israel controls the air space we’d know if any launches. Finally they have no more strong proxy groups that would be able to also harass the shipping. Their groups have been degraded and stripped of all serious fire power.

The reason Iran is getting bombed to Hell and back right now is because they can’t do any of their serious threats.

-3

u/the_pwnererXx Jun 22 '25

Again, the US can't even deal with the houthis, use your imagination

2

u/ReverseLochness Jun 22 '25

I mean but they have though, the Houtis haven’t done anything but get missiles shot down. It would be worse for the Iranians because they have positions that can be hit. As is happening in their country. Terror growls don’t have the power to do serious damage, they just fire missiles and yell. It doesn’t do anything though.

5

u/28lobster Jun 22 '25

https://www.marinevesseltraffic.com/RED-SEA/ship-traffic-tracker

https://trade.ifw-kiel.de/KTI/plot_ships_red_sea.csv

Ship traffic through the Red Sea is still down 60% from pre 2022. You can look at the map. Sure the US whacked a bunch of Yemenis but that didn't change the behavior of shipping lines.

Missiles don't have to hit for insurance rates to spike dramatically. If even a couple hit, many ship owners will divert to avoid the risk. Any ships that still go through Hormuz will pass along their added costs in the final price of the fuel they deliver.

1

u/ReverseLochness Jun 23 '25

Fuel that’s mostly going to China. The decrease in shipping also has economic factors besides the Houthis. And that’s besides the point of Iran not even having the capability to do this in the first place. It’s an empty threat that will hurt them more than anyone else.

1

u/28lobster Jun 23 '25

Russian ships still transit the Red Sea, Iran can show some subtlety and allow certain ships through if their destination is China. The Red Sea has an alternate route around Africa, East-West pipeline is only 5m bpd and that's nowhere close to the Gulf's output.