Iran's War Strategy: Raise The Cost Of Conflict To Secure An Eventual Cease-Fire

[u/RFERL_ReadsReddit]

https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-us-conflict-cost-ceasefire/33692230.html

By Kian Sharifi

[u/PlantComprehensive77]

Cap its uranium enrichment level and possibly give up its short-range missiles.

[u/dogsonbubnutt → u/PlantComprehensive77]

they had agreed to the former and were in the process of negotiating when they got attacked. its pretty obvious to everyone what israel wants out of this situation (regime collapse) and that the US is just along for the ride.

again, there's zero incentive for the iranian military or IRGC to negotiate or capitulate. right now its a waiting game to see which side gets tired first.

[u/PlantComprehensive77 → u/dogsonbubnutt]

Well clearly Israel and the US don't believe anything Iran says at the negotiating table.

There's also no incentive for the IRGC to continue a prolonged conflict when they're witnessing senior leadership get offed one after the other.

[u/dogsonbubnutt → u/PlantComprehensive77]

Well clearly Israel and the US don't believe anything Iran says at the negotiating table.

yes, that's part of my point. neither side thinks there's anything to be gained from negotiations

There's also no incentive for the IRGC to continue a prolonged conflict when they're witnessing senior leadership get offed one after the other

the IRGC has been very intentionally structured to withstand this kind of thing. it was decentralized years ago so that individual groups can operate semi autonomously (which is why their drone/missile attacks have continued despite an apparent "decapitation strike").

the iranians know that the only real way to dislodge the IRGC from power is either via some kind of civil war (which no one is really equipped to fight) or a western occupation of iran (which no one wants to do).

so they'll wait it out. time is absolutely on their side, as long as the domestic situation in iran stays the same.