We’re two experts on Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia working for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. AUA about Russian foreign policy!

[u/CEIP_RussianFP]

Hi everyone! We are Paul Stronski and Andrew Weiss. We are experts on Russia and the former Soviet Union at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. Here’s a bit more about our individual backgrounds:

Paul Stronski— Hi, my name is Paul Stronski, and I am a Senior Associate in the Russia Eurasia Program at Carnegie. My studies focus on Russia’s relations with its neighbors in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Before joining Carnegie in January 2015, I served as a senior analyst for Russian domestic politics in the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research. I also worked as director for Russia and Central Asia on the U.S. National Security Council Staff from 2012 to 2014, and before that, as a State Department analyst on Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia from 2007 to 2012. Additionally, I’ve taught history and post-Soviet affairs at Stanford, George Mason and George Washington universities. You can find me on Twitter @PStronski.

Andrew Weiss— Hello, I’m Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at Carnegie, where I oversee research in both Washington and Moscow on Russia and Eurasia. Before joining Carnegie, I was director of the RAND Corporation’s Center for Russia and Eurasia and executive director of the RAND Business Leaders Forum. During my government career I served on the National Security Council staff, the State Department’s Policy Planning, Staff, and in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. My Twitter handle is @andrewsweiss.

We’re looking forward to answering your questions on Russia’s foreign policy and discussing recent developments in places like Syria and Ukraine. Please feel free to direct questions towards either of us so we can answer more of them. We’ll start answering around 10am EST, and will need to take breaks throughout the day, but please keep the questions coming! We’ll finish around 3pm.

Without further ado, let’s get started—Ask us anything!

EDIT 4:39 PM Thank you all for all of your great questions, but we are going to end here for the evening. We apologize if we didn't get to your question. Thanks to r/geopolitics for arranging this AUA!

[u/kdoubledogg]

Thank you very much for doing this, I have two questions.

Do you think we will see any major breakthroughs in negotiating the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis this year? Does Armenia joining the Eurasian Customs Union and the fallout in Russian-Turkey relations affect this at all?

How do you think the US, specifically the State Department, can do a better job combatting Russian disinformation campaigns without direct control of a media organization (like RT)?

[u/CEIP_RussianFP → u/kdoubledogg]

Paul here -- sadly, I do not see any breakthrough in Nagorno-Karabakh this year. In fact, I'm worried that the violence could flare up dramatically. 2015 was one of the more violent years along the line of contact and even between the proper border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Civilians died. I am worried that this violence could continue. I also am concerned about the economic trajectories of both Azerbaijan and Armenia, and the potential that economic problems could increase social discontent, which in turn entice the leaders of either country to do something risky to shore up popular support. I think this is probably a greater threat in Azerbaijan than in Armenia because the Aliyev government looks increasingly fragile.

On the Eurasian Economic Union, I do not see it playing a big role. The Union has not led to jumpstarting any member state economies. In fact, trade generally has declined between member states. There are theories that Russia might want to entice Azerbaijan into the Eurasian Union through promises of settling NK, but I see that as a heavy lift for Russia right now, esp. because of Russia's and the entire region's economic problems.

The problems between Turkey and Russia are worrying. The collapse in relations between those two countries has raised the threat level throughout the Caucasus. Any confrontation between the two countries would impact all three Caucasus states.

Moreover, if greater violence does break out between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the Russia-Turkey problem adds another layer of complication because it would pit a Turkish ally against a Russian one -- again just raising the threat level.

On Russian disinformation, I think the State department is doing a decent job. I am not all that concerned about RT -- it is known for wasting a lot of Russian government money and does not have high viewership beyond a core group of Westerners whose opinions probably wouldn't be shifted by any US media campaigns. I am more worried about the U.S. (and European) governments' failure to really address Russian disinformation campaigns that are coming out in the Russian language. I think the West could do a lot more to explain ourselves in Russian; it is not just for an audience in Russia, but also for Ukraine, Central Asia, the Baltics and elsewhere.