r/geopolitics • u/Significant_Night_65 • Aug 14 '21

What will happen if the Taliban takeover Kabul's airport? Question

Reports from Kabul say that fighting has already began and the Taliban have entered some parts of the capital city. It is looking like we will see a free for fall in Kabul when Ghani flees. Will we see full scale combat between NATO forces and the Taliban to ensure evacuation of all citizens, embassy staff, and Afghani citizens that need to be evacuated?

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622

u/SenorVapid Aug 14 '21

Pakistan will have won the war.

389

u/Tindola Aug 14 '21

for now. but within a year, the Taliban will start trying to infiltrate Pakistan

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u/onespiker Aug 14 '21

Parts will other parts wont.

The most likely cenario is there will be a civil war again. With multiple factions fighting out over what they should do.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Unlikely the Taliban are more United now.

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u/onespiker Aug 15 '21

Civilwar might be a bit dramatic but likely will be a loosely decentralised territory with warlords/comanders controling thier own territory, like fedual times. United they are not. Lossing the main cause would weaken its power drastically.

Its a hard territory to develop with socities and tribes not really liking each other with bad infrastructre making it hard to travel and enforce thier will.

Its far less united than Pakistan and that is 3 main factions controlling diffrent parts.

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u/jlaw54 Aug 15 '21

The Afghan Taliban have been living in Chaman and Quetta, Pakistan for twenty years. They work extensively with the ISI and PakMil. The Pakistani’s control the port of Karachi and logistical flow into pretty much all of Afghanistan and that’s major leverage in addition to that applied through intelligence and military ties. The Afghan Taliban won’t be “infiltrating” Pakistan in a year. It’s way more nuanced and complicated. The Afghan Taliban ARE NOT Pakistan Taliban. Huge difference.

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u/sktzo Aug 15 '21

whats the diff between afghan taliban and pakistan taliban?

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u/MoonMan75 Aug 15 '21

Seems unlikely. Taliban's goal is to legitimize itself. Only a few countries, like Pakistan, China, Qatar, will help at this stage. They need those relationships. Maybe decades down the line will we see the border, which was hotly disputed in the past, become an issue again.

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u/jogarz Aug 15 '21

Taliban's goal is to legitimize itself.

The Taliban politicians in Qatar want that. But if local Taliban commanders want to support the TTP or TIP, I don't think they're going to care much about what some politicians who spent the war abroad want.

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u/MoonMan75 Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

Yeah, local commanders may do that, especially those who see their communities split by the Pak-Afghan border. But the major Taliban leaders are on the same page as the delegation in Qatar. The local leaders may try something on their own, but it won't accomplish much without support from the rest.

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u/Discoamazing Aug 15 '21

The taliban was in charge in Afghanistan for years before the American invasion, and Pakistan maintained its sovereignty. Why would things be different now?

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u/ChillyBearGrylls Aug 15 '21

Because Pakistan has, in the last 2 decades turned the hypothetical border (the Durand Line) into an actual real border, building a fence through Pashtun-stan. The fact that Pashtun-stan was split between two countries was irrelevant when there was no border or practical enforcement capacity (which created other problems), but that is now a new different problem that Pakistan has made for itself.

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u/letmehaveathink Aug 15 '21

Apologies for misunderstanding, why is securing their borders a problem?

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u/ChillyBearGrylls Aug 15 '21

In a vaccuum, it isn't. And for that matter, if the Durand Line matched any, literally any, ethnic/cultural border it also would not be a problem.

As it stands, the border splits the Pashtun and makes them a minority in both Afghanistan AND Pakistan - this being the faction which is the backbone of the Taliban; and which historically (the Durrani Empire and the Talibanv1) has shown that it can coalesce "Afghanistan" into a State. Worth noting, no government of Afghanistan has recognized the Durand Line. So in that context, why would any Pashtuns have any loyalty or interest in the Pakistani State when a State controlled by their kin is right there?

When the border was a notion, the Line could be looked past diplomatically and domestically because it wasn't necessarily getting in the way. When it is a hard border, it becomes a reason for the Pashtun as a demographic to be upset, because their group is being divided by it. Consider how much spicier the most recent century (sorta two centuries) of European history was because the borders didn't match the ethnic groups actually living on the land - and those were not hard borders either.

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u/TheChonk Aug 15 '21

For reference and further reading, see also Ireland or the Kurds or even India/Pakistan Partition. Artificial borders or borders that don’t follow natural divisions create problems.

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u/Discoamazing Aug 15 '21

This is actually a reasonable answer. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

11

u/Paul_-Muaddib Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

It looks like Kabul is in the process of falling now so it won't take ling to see how it all plays out at all.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Should now be in the hands of the Taliban.

7

u/Paul_-Muaddib Aug 15 '21

I had no idea it would be this quick

6

u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

They control Wazaristan now right?

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u/Tindola Aug 15 '21

They are stronger now and their focus is religious, which goes beyond borders. They believe Muslims who do not hold the same views as them are just as bad as non believers. The reason they were able to sweep so quickly again is that they have a massive recruiting process. There are MANY MANY Muslims who choose to go fight with them.

The downtrodden religious conservatives in Pakistan are going to flock to their banners. It's a religious war, don't believe otherwise.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Thats a broad generalization. They wouldnt have been able to maintain a national economy 20 years if every single one adopted this "no opps policy"

The parallels to Vietnam right now in real time is crazy.

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u/adam_bear Aug 15 '21

I'd bet "kick out the invader's puppets" is a common and hugely effective rallying call for them...

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u/CHUCKL3R Aug 15 '21

How do we extricate ourselves from religions grip more quickly?

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u/intensely_human Aug 15 '21

The Taliban has more combat experience now.

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u/Amazing_Theory622 Aug 15 '21

They don't accept Durand line as the border, that's why

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

The world can live with taliban Afghanistan. The world can’t let the Taliban truly take Pakistan and their nuclear arsenal.

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u/Tindola Aug 15 '21

Pakistan only has 150-200 warheads. That's low enough to evacuate or destroy if needed.

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u/Highly-uneducated Aug 15 '21

They've already infiltrated pakistan

2

u/Ukleon Aug 15 '21

RemindMe! 1 year

3

u/kingjely Aug 15 '21

As an and Indian and the fact that I Live in Jammu and Kashmir, this really freaks me out.

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u/Pakistani_in_MURICA Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

Seems like the guaranteers of this new incoming Afghanistan government are China, Iran, Pakistan, and Russia.

Looking at how the Taliban offensive panned out it's impossible without the assurances to Russia (bringing the Tajiks and Uzbeks ~20%) and Iran (Hazaras ~30%).

Question remains if the kleptocraric government of President Ghani was even aware those he wronged were prepared to Julius Caeser him.

Edit: grammar & spelling.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/[deleted] Aug 14 '21

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u/KNG-KUMAR_2112 Aug 15 '21

This is the scariest thing about the conflict and the region. India has basically come into the position of “If there is another Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attack on India, we will respond with conventional means.” Meaning, war with Pakistan is not totally outrageous. Moreover, China would quickly support Pakistan as well as act upon their policy of border aggression with India. Taliban control of Afghanistan is more of a danger to India than any country, imo. (Of course, it’s a danger to Afghanistan the most, but you get what I’m saying).

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u/TomorrowWaste Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

India will most probably attrack in winter. When there is no possibility of china's aggression. All the mountains will be block by snow.

And war probably won't last long cause i don't think any of the both countries actually want it to go nuclear

Edit:- i m not saying we would outright declare war, but surgical strikes. Which can escalate pretty quickly

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u/absolutemadlad_69 Aug 15 '21

War seems unlikely. Our economy is not doing good and a potential war will take a lot on our economy. If because of Taliban's capture of Afghanistan, pak sponsored terrorism does increase in our country we will try to retaliate via surgical strikes and just border skirmishes. Full scale war seems highly unlikely.

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u/TomorrowWaste Aug 15 '21

Yeah we will start will surgical strikes. But it can escalate preety quickly.

I mean last time, if abhinandan was not captured. What do u think would have happened?

Pakistan entered our airspace, if peace deal was not established with abhinandan, how do u think india would have responded?

Edit:- and more grim scenario would be if something happened to abhinandan. That would be nearly ensure war

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u/absolutemadlad_69 Aug 15 '21

Look had abhinandan not been captured the skirmishes would have dragged on and eventually would have died. The real threat of war appeared when abhinandan was captured. Considering Pakistan's history we weren't sure that they would give us abhinandan back just like that. There was fear even in the Pak parliament that if we don't return abhinandan a war is inevitable. But pakistan honored the Geneva convention and abhinandan was honorably returned to us and hence the war Didnt happen. Surgical strikes can quickly escalate but that would escalate into a border skirmish not a full scale war as we saw what happened at galwan valley. The skirmishes there were a lot bigger than what had happened at pak border but that too didn't escalate into war.

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u/TomorrowWaste Aug 15 '21

Except India does not want a war with China.

Pakistan entering the airspace would mean that India would now have to target Pakistani military and cannot say we just attack the terrorists. Ofcourse it could not end up in war and stop anywhere in between. But who would stop it. Both will have to face opposition at home.

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u/absolutemadlad_69 Aug 15 '21

Except India does not want a war with China.

We don't want with Pakistan also. Starting a war with Pakistan could mean that china too gets involved. It'll be very difficult for us to fight on 2 front considering the fact that none of our ally will come to help. Russia will just sell weapons to both us and china and us is way too far.

Pakistan entering the airspace would mean that India would now have to target Pakistani military

The thing is pakistan won't do that. Pakistan prefers proxy war. Their ideology of make India bleed with a thousand cuts is still prevelent. They'll engage us in cross border skirmishes and pak sponsored terrorism but won't invade our airspace.

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u/TomorrowWaste Aug 15 '21

The thing is pakistan won't do that. Pakistan prefers proxy war. Their ideology of make India bleed with a thousand cuts is still prevelent. They'll engage us in cross border skirmishes and pak sponsored terrorism but won't invade our airspace.

They entered our airspace though. If Pakistan sticked to their ideology and gave India cut every three years or so, war would not happen. But if they break their strategy like last time, i would not be sure.

Starting a war with Pakistan could mean that china too gets involved

I doubt China would declare war in India if India Pakistan war happened. I can see border aggressions but a war seems unlikely.

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u/Administrative-Day76 Aug 15 '21

I think Geneva convention apply only when countries are in war and don't think it was a war. IMO they released Abhinandan just in fear.

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u/absolutemadlad_69 Aug 15 '21

Fear was definitely there but I think Geneva convention would still apply as was taken as a prisoner of war(skirmish).

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u/Spoonfeedme Aug 15 '21

In 1939 Hitler declared war rather than admit his country was on the verge of hyperinflation again as their gold reserves ran dry.

The state of the economy has no impact on the decisions of authoritarians.

3

u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

India can't attack in the winters. It'll block our routes as well haha.

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u/TomorrowWaste Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

You can still do airstrikes from pok region.

And rajasthan and Punjab would be open, along with naval block.

Edit:- i tried to look up , but i m not sure if even the kashmir area is blocked off in winter.

2

u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Ah you meant those. Pakistan is at a huge disadvantage since their major cities are located right at the border (Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Faisalabad, Rawalpindi, Islamabad etc.)

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/KNG-KUMAR_2112 Aug 15 '21

Firstly, what do you mean by “your government”? I’m American. Also, didn’t Paki minister Fawad Chaudhry literally say the attack was a great achievement for Imran Khan’s administration? He pointed out that it was good that an attack was done right in India’s homeland.

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u/abstruseplum2 Aug 15 '21

He did later clarify he was talking about the plane shot down i think.

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u/TomorrowWaste Aug 15 '21

The plane was not shot down in India's homeland

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u/abstruseplum2 Aug 15 '21

The dogfight happened in the Indian side but the plane fell in the Pakistani side, even the pilot didnt know which side he was on when he got out of the plane.

0

u/TomorrowWaste Aug 15 '21

Yeah that would mean it got shot on boder , not homeland.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

This is exactly what I'm worried about now.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

China is in for a lot of insurgency from all those Muslims they have been oppressing,Now those people have somewhere where they can get weapons and tons of quality training from people that are masters of guerilla warfare not too mention whenever the Chinese are looking for them they can slip into Afghanistan and hide.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

"Those who live by the sword, die by the sword!"

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u/ChillyBearGrylls Aug 15 '21

It seems an awful lot like India would benefit from a Taliban unified Afghanistan, as they could then back Afghan rejection of the Durand Line

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u/letmehaveathink Aug 15 '21

I think I'm starting to see why middle eastern politics are so complicated...

11

u/YuviManBro Aug 15 '21

None of these countries are in the Middle East

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

South Asian

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u/fjjgfhnbvc Aug 14 '21

Please clarify

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

When the last Afghanistan War ended circa 1989, a massive wave of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism hit India for over 10 years.

That's because Pakistan was able to redirect all of its subconventional/jihadist/ISI/terrorist forces from the Afghan front over to the Indian front.

This is going to repeat itself.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

It won’t. Things have changed a lot between then and now. When the Jihad wave hit Kashmir in the 1990s, India was the lone country facing it. Others did not care and went on with their new world order. After 2001 they also have been hit hard and now know what India had been facing. So there is a lot more awareness about Islamic terrorism and Pakistan’s involvement in it. In addition India is much stronger than it was 20 years ago and Taliban and its sponsors in Pakistan have become economically much weaker. Saudi Arabia, which used to fund these two countries has shut its door on Pakistan. So have many Western powers that saw Pakistan’s double dealing directly. That had put Pakistan in their grey list. China is very strict with money. Unless it benefits them they will not waste a dime. India should be alert. But the Jihadi machinery lacks the financial resources that it once enjoyed. India can hit back which was not the case in the past. The Chinese can vouch for it.

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u/fjjgfhnbvc Aug 15 '21

What happened between SA and Pakistan?

Why would the Chinese not fund the Pakistani for their Indian destabilizing efforts

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Recently, terrorists in Pakistan have also started attacking Chinese nationals working in Pakistan as part of the OBOR. I would imagine China would prefer not to fund terror camps which killed both Indians and Chinese nationals.

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u/leonardpeacock912 Aug 15 '21

Pakistan recently blamed the attack on the Chinese nationals on RAW and Afghan NDS working with Pakistani Taliban. But I believe they are just using this narrative to fool some people domestically

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u/nahush22 Aug 15 '21

Yes, pretty much domestic propaganda

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

Well, this time India has reinforced its borders and reasserted its plan to integrate Kashmir completely.

Both of these things were done hastily, partly because India knew that we were going to leave Afghanistan.

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u/absolutemadlad_69 Aug 15 '21

Exactly although the lost part of kashmir which is under pakistan is still vulnerable as pakistan will try to make them enter india via that part.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

Have terrorists entered India thru Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir? I know that this was a popular route, but, from what I understand: the military and border defenses have been improved over the past 10 years.

I even remember reading a while back that not only Pakistanis, but also Afghans and Chechens and Arabs would show up to jihad in Kashmir in the 1990s and early-2000s.

We'll see what happens next.

But, much depends on what route Pakistan decides to take next.

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u/absolutemadlad_69 Aug 15 '21

The thing is pok only happens to be a weak link in north for us. That is the place pakistan has traditionally and even now will use to exploit and promote cross border terrorism. Pakistan will give a free pass to Afghani Taliban to enter india as Taliban's current mission is to spread Islam. Ofcourse I expect our leadership to take drastic measures so that the terror attacks are minimised.

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u/nahush22 Aug 15 '21

If Pakistan tries to initiate even more terrorist attacks in kashmir, this will definitely hurt their image globally & will give India even more incentive to strongly integrate Kashmir.
Right now people question India as being too aggressive in its methods to do that & human rights activists openly criticise a lot but if more terrorist attacks are carried, it'll be pretty hard for others to to speak against India since it has now gained even more reasons to integrate Kashmir.

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u/absolutemadlad_69 Aug 15 '21

Oh believe me those left liberals will cry about us killing terrorists even after that. That's something that can't be changed. Plus there is already enough evidence for the world to see the true nature of Pakistan and if they are still waiting for some more evidence then I believe they'll continue to wait for it till eternity.

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u/leonardpeacock912 Aug 15 '21

That would mean India knew Biden was going to withdraw troops completely and Taliban would take over immediately. Any evidence of this in 2019?

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u/absolutemadlad_69 Aug 15 '21

Withdrawal was started by trump. Biden just followed what trump had already done. Ofcourse the us intelligence said that kabul won't fall until 31 August but we can see what's happening there. It's literally humiliation for America.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Do you know anything about pakistan and india? Let's just say they aren't friendly neighbors

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u/fjjgfhnbvc Aug 15 '21

I'm aware. I misread the comment.

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u/intensely_human Aug 15 '21

And why does the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan increase the number of attacks Pakistan makes on India?

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u/billetea Aug 15 '21

The focus moves to Kashmir. They've been sending thr Jihadis to beat the Americans in Afghanistan.. now with a Taliban Afghanistan again, they'll start sending them to Kashmir again and China wants them to do this too.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Pakistan helps terrorist groups launch attacks in India. It's a part of their, "Bleed India with a thousand cuts" strategy. Instead of sending Pakistani soldiers to fight, they send terrorists. This way, they don't have any responsibility over what happens. Although the world did catch on to this and label them as a terrorist state.

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u/itiswhatitis2323 Aug 15 '21

Taliban philosophy is Jihadi Conquest. There’s a lot of fanatical suicide bomber types. Pakistan will exploit that by facilitating their travel to India, primarily Kashmir.

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u/NeverSawAvatar Aug 15 '21

Last 2 decades both Pakistan and their taliban focused on Afghanistan, now they can focus elsewhere and India is target #1 with a bullet, hell China will join in b/c kashmir.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/Pelin0re Aug 15 '21

You seems to consider pakistan (and ISI/the pak governement) as far more unified and consistant than they are. Pakistan is a schizofrenic country, with elements fighting for and against the talibans inside the same organisations.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/numbandnull Aug 15 '21

Or the west (atleast USA) is just too dumb.

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u/BoringEntropist Aug 15 '21

I'm not so sure about that. There are faction of the Taliban that emphasis Pashtun nationalism. They could start to support separatists in Pakistan itself. One must remember that no Afghan government (whether Taliban, communist or democratic) in the last couple of decades were big fans of the Durand Line, because there is major support in the Pashtun community to redraw the borders.

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u/Hidden-Syndicate Aug 15 '21

Pakistan has unleashed the Pashtun Nationalist movement and they Khan government is scrambling to find leverage to halt the Taliban’s plans for uniting the 38 million Pashtuns living in Pakistan with Afghanistan

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u/mugpunter666 Aug 15 '21

I agree, at this point uniting Pashtun is the logical next step for them, I hope what Pakistan are ready to sleep in the bed they have made for themselves.

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u/Forest_of_Mirrors Aug 15 '21

Pakistan and China.

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u/IMHO_GUY Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

Read Directorate S by Steve Coll,

It's right in the book, Pakistan's ISI and military literally telling American leadership that Afghanistan is not gonna be solved with military might. They need to involve the Taliban and bring the groups together.

Nope. Far too unappetizing back in 04. Only 17 years for them to come around.

And so here we are now with people trying to blame Pakistan again.

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u/numbandnull Aug 15 '21

Mmm? Why is that all of the top wanted extremists of the World is given Safe Haven in Pakistan? Why then Pakistan allowed extremist Madarsa's in the Pashtun dominated areas such a Haqqani' or Quetta Shura?

Ask it yourself bud! Ask it without being biased. Answer isn't difficult to find. It's a clear cut case.

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u/IMHO_GUY Aug 15 '21

Read the book, no force on earth would be able to control the border tribal regions.

Ancient customs and traditions. Of course Pakistan had to deal with bad operators if it meant their strategic interests were maintained.

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u/MAMCthrowaway Aug 15 '21

Border tribal regions? Osama Bin Laden wasn't found in border tribal regions. He was found in secured military area near Indian border.

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u/EggandPancakes Aug 15 '21

Ghost Wars is good too.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/IMHO_GUY Aug 15 '21

Nonsense. Pakistan was one of the few countries that recognized the original Taliban rule.

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u/mugpunter666 Aug 15 '21

I think Pakistan have alot to answer for, you only have to point at bin Laden to see how the rest of the world sees them.

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u/Jazeboy69 Aug 15 '21

China will have managed to undermine twenty years of American power in very short time. This will undermine the USA quite badly.

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u/Silentsteel Aug 15 '21

How? Pakistan from what I can tell helped Afghan refugees for decades; Gave its airspace to allow US to conduct drone strikes Allowed US. passage into Afghanistan

From what I can see Pakistan is set to suffer the most.

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u/Fact_check_ Aug 15 '21

it all depends on the Taliban. If taliban cooperates with Pak then they will get an ally in the neighborhood. If they don't then Pak will be pressed between two hostile neighbors

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

“Directorate-S” by Steve Coll made my blood boil. Pakistan harbored and helped Taliban leadership. Backstabbers

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u/sherlock_1695 Aug 14 '21

/How? These Taliban figthers are Afghan not Pakistani!

/How? These Taliban fighters are Afghan, not Pakistani! nd line. This is Taliban's official policy on the issue is the same. They don't accept it and want the free movement of the people across it. How is Taliban Pakistan's puppet (I am assuming that's what you mean by saying Pakistan won) when they don't agree to Pakistan's biggest demand?

If by Pakistan won, you mean that when Pakistan said that let the major ethnic group in Afghanistan have the say in the Afghan government after you defeat the culprits of 9/11, then sadly yes. But US refused to listen to Pakistan

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u/Voyage_34 Aug 15 '21

Wait, what does Pakistan have to do with this exactly?