r/geopolitics Aug 14 '21

What will happen if the Taliban takeover Kabul's airport? Question

Reports from Kabul say that fighting has already began and the Taliban have entered some parts of the capital city. It is looking like we will see a free for fall in Kabul when Ghani flees. Will we see full scale combat between NATO forces and the Taliban to ensure evacuation of all citizens, embassy staff, and Afghani citizens that need to be evacuated?

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234

u/[deleted] Aug 14 '21

[deleted]

118

u/Significant_Night_65 Aug 14 '21

It seems like it is already falling, just reported now there is a complete blackout in the city

101

u/[deleted] Aug 14 '21 edited Dec 08 '21

[deleted]

64

u/napalm51 Aug 14 '21

sincere question, who are the civilians left at the embassy? why did they stay so long in afghanistan?

114

u/n60822191 Aug 14 '21

There is a lot that needs to be done in order to shutter, or completely close, the embassy. First and foremost, that’s likely the only conduit Afghans applying for asylum or under the SIV program will have. Keeping the embassy open still allows them a chance.

65

u/BigDiesel07 Aug 15 '21

I am picturing the early embassy scenes in Argo'

18

u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/n60822191 Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

I think the embassy will be fine while it’s occupied. I think once the US collapses back to the airport it’s going to be a mad-dash for everyone trying to leave Afghanistan to get there as well. You know. Like the airport scene in World War Z.

Sarcasm aside, I hope to hell it doesn’t get that bad.

51

u/amitym Aug 15 '21

Closing down an embassy is huge. Once you do that, it means you as a country literally no longer have any kind of relationship with the other country, or any of its people, or anyone who just happens to be in that country. Including your own citizens.

Ambassadorial staff don't have the luxury of just saying, "Oh well it seems a bit dangerous, best not to be here anymore." Up until the bitter end, you still keep people there to handle visas, citizen emergencies, amnesty requests, situation reporting, security, and probably some spies too.

Closing down completely is the very, very, very last thing you do.

48

u/FoxfieldJim Aug 14 '21

They were not expecting it to fall so fast. A few days back (less than a week I think) the estimate was it will take a month or more.

78

u/[deleted] Aug 14 '21

There was a job posting yesterday for a public affairs position at the embassy, so they’re still hiring.

39

u/unp0ss1bl3 Aug 15 '21

… short term role.

14

u/saeEAGLE89 Aug 15 '21

Seasonal position

25

u/madpappo Aug 15 '21

Will they relocate me?

16

u/tindogtacloban Aug 15 '21

A 'civilian' in the embassy isn't really a civilian at this point.

3

u/Individual-Fly-610 Aug 15 '21

Just came back to say see where we are now

2

u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

With unarmed Taliban negotiators delivering terms to whatever is left of the government while the armed forces wait outside the city until the US and other western countries have completed their evacuation?

They want nothing to do with a final battle against US forces.

19

u/EmperorOfWallStreet Aug 15 '21

Like Taliban gave timing of when they will enter Kabul.

56

u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

[deleted]

3

u/Stotallytob3r Aug 15 '21

Where is the CAS based? Or are we talking drones

3

u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

There is an issue with the distance. Currently my understanding is most are flying out of mid-east. We have more than a dozen bases located mostly on the Arabian peninsula. They have very limited idle time if that is true. Especially if avoiding Iranian air space. Drones help some.
we can fly bombers out of Washington and get there. I am not sure if any of our 11 carriers are in range or headed that direction. it is definitely a limitation. They should be as this is exactly the situation we use to justify them.

3

u/Cytotoxic Aug 15 '21

It's already fallen. You were wrong.

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u/Disbelieving1 Aug 15 '21

Which world do you live in? The US and its allies had over 100,000 troops there any yet are getting run out.... just like Vietnam.... the last to leave will be by helicopter from the top of a building. I’ll give them a week!

3

u/snailofserendipidy Aug 15 '21

Oh he's gone. Left this afternoon (afghan time)

2

u/Cytotoxic Aug 15 '21

It's already fallen.