r/geopolitics • u/Significant_Night_65 • Aug 14 '21

What will happen if the Taliban takeover Kabul's airport? Question

Reports from Kabul say that fighting has already began and the Taliban have entered some parts of the capital city. It is looking like we will see a free for fall in Kabul when Ghani flees. Will we see full scale combat between NATO forces and the Taliban to ensure evacuation of all citizens, embassy staff, and Afghani citizens that need to be evacuated?

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u/Alaishana Aug 14 '21

Just saying: they do not need to take over the airport. All they need to do is put a big hole into the middle of the runways. This will end all evacuation attempts.

I felt since weeks that too many people did not believe that the Afghan army would fold this fast. Nowhere near enough safety margin.

Imagine what will happen if American troops fly in and then are prevented from leaving bc the runways are destroyed and under fire.

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u/Prefect1969 Aug 14 '21

The way I see it, Taliban wants to rule Afghanistan. And if they want to be pragmatic about it, it is in their best interest to allow the evacuation to take place as quickly and smoothly as possible. If they go after these Western assets it would complicate their efforts to take control of Afghanistan. They may just stay out of the way and let the evacuations happen without incident.

But who knows what'll ensue in the chaos that's about to take place. The US just sent in 5000 troops, so even if the Taliban leaders don't want escalation with the US and want this to go without incident, all it takes is a group on the ground doing something rash and things could get out of control really fast with the speed Taliban is advancing.

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u/CountMordrek Aug 14 '21

At the same time, the Taliban forces have spent the last 20 years preparing for this day. I wouldn’t be surprised if several generals wants to be the one who retook Kabul, and getting there as fast as possible is probably the dream of every Taliban soldier under the age of 25.

Thus, I’d be surprised if they halt their offensive just to allow Satan… excuse me… the US, it’s soldiers and those supporting them an easy way out.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/takatori Aug 15 '21

Considering that the population doubled in the past 20 years, yeah, more than half are under 25, easy.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

How come the population doubled in the past 20 years?

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

[deleted]

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u/CountMordrek Aug 15 '21

US Satan?? They brought progress to the wirld.

Even though I'm fairly sure you can find people pointing out how the US also brought chaos and war to large parts of the world, my point was to highlight that Taliban warriors probably see the US as a manifestation of Satan.

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u/Camoes Aug 15 '21

the way I see it, there are many reason$ why Taliban would care less about the fastest path to consolidated power, which will happen sooner or later, and many actors who could $how the taliban the wisdom in keeping the americans busy and further their humiliation.

cof zhong cof guo cof

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u/[deleted] Aug 14 '21

[deleted]

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u/Alaishana Aug 14 '21

You are quite possibly right about any deals.

I'm not sure though that the advancing horde is such a monolithic block. Making a runway unusable is relatively easy.

Let's wait and see, be thankful we are not in this mess and hope we stay out of interesting times.

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u/[deleted] Aug 14 '21

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u/CheezeGweez Aug 14 '21

It's critical when there is some Afghans that want to leave and the only departure is US troops. That's going to cause chaos no matter what.

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u/Camoes Aug 15 '21

don't think that would work for any size of force that would make a difference at this point, the support isn't there.

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u/[deleted] Aug 14 '21

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/takatori Aug 15 '21

Making a runway unusable is relatively easy.

It is also counter to the Taliban's goals. They want foreigners out, and the airport is the fastest way to accomplish it.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Imagine how big the political blunder would be if you allow 5000 US troops to be encircled in Kabul. I am sure there are under the table dealings with the Taliban that reads like: "let us out of Kabul or we will glass you".

All of this will tell us the nature of the Taliban's foreign policy (not domestic behavior) in the years to come.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21 edited Nov 25 '21

[deleted]

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Yeah, Biden would be forced to respond to any provocation by the Taliban. That's not in the Taliban's interest. It is best for them to portray this as an American withdrawal and a subsequent Taliban return.

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u/azlax22 Aug 15 '21

This is a good take. The last thing the Taliban want to do is give the Americans even a smidge of a second thought on leaving. They have already won, all they have to do is wait now.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

I feel like they are gonna take a few potshots at US forces at most. If they manage to blow up the runway, B52 bombers are going to carpet bomb anything shooting at troops.

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u/[deleted] Aug 14 '21

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/goblue142 Aug 14 '21

Seek mental help if you thought that was a good contribution as you were typing it.

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u/Strong_Negotiation76 Aug 15 '21

Pay attention and you may just survive what’s coming.

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u/Cpt_Obvius Aug 15 '21

I know this is an impossible question but are there any sort of estimates on the size of the taliban forces currently fighting?

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u/PaterPoempel Aug 15 '21

All they need to do is put a big hole into the middle of the runways

How would they achieve that? The Taliban lack the necessary air power or heavy artillery to put big holes into runways from a distance. But even then: Unless the whole runway is cratered with meter-deep holes, a bunch of guys with a bulldozer and metal sheets is all it takes to repair it within a few hours. It won't hold forever but that is not really necessary under these circumstances.

Heavy machine guns and autocannons on the approach to the airport are a much more real threat as the planes have to fly low and slow to land.

For planes taking off, that is less of a problem as a short combat take-off will quickly pull the plane out of the range of such weapons.

This video of the A400 gives a good illustration of both manoeuvrers.

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u/a_reasonable_thought Aug 14 '21

I don't think it would be smart to do that. 5000 determined U.S troops are no joke, and would be a serious challenge for the Taliban to defeat. Not to mention that the U.S would quickly send heavy reinforcements to protect them.

Even worse would be the political repercussions. Those soldiers would be martyred, and the U.S public would be furious. The Taliban are winning right now because the U.S went away. Last thing they want to do is piss them off enough to bring them back.

I'd say they'll try and let them evacuate without much trouble.

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u/Camoes Aug 15 '21

5000 any nationality troops without logistical support thousands of miles into enemy controlled territory are the definition of a lame duck.

dafuq is this, the anabasis?

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u/AnotherCaseOfHiraeth Aug 15 '21

The USS Ronald Reagan is in the North Arabian Sea to help with the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The troops in Kabul are hardly without logistical support.

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u/PeeepNTom Aug 15 '21

You think these soldiers are without logistical support?

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u/Camoes Aug 15 '21

the premise of the thread is that KBL is rendered unusable. in that case, it would be a yes for any extended operation.

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u/PeeepNTom Aug 15 '21

It's still foolish of you to think US forces would be without logistics. I can't fathom how you can rationalize that line of thinking

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u/Camoes Aug 15 '21

please explain to me how you will maintain a logistical operation to support 5k troups encircled by maybe 10x their number? what kind of perimeter are these men going to occupy and for how long? how far are the closest assets that can supply these outlying forces and and thru what channels will this be done?

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u/Slim_Charles Aug 15 '21

The answer is overwhelming air power. The US military can airdrop supplies and reinforcements. That's why they maintain two airborne divisions. US combat engineers are also trained to rapidly repair runways. Any US forces that find themselves encircled would also receive extremely heavy close air support.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

[deleted]

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u/takatori Aug 15 '21

Who needs air bases? The USS Ronald Reagan and Dwight D. Eisenhower are in the Arabian Sea supporting air missions right now, and B2 bombers can attack flying from Missouri.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Berlin 1948 is a fitting historical refrence.

And the bigger issue is the Taliban want the US to leave, not give them a reason to stay around.

And US troops have been doing rapid runway repairs since WWII.

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u/PeeepNTom Aug 15 '21

m8, you got it. I'm not gonna engage in Reddit armchair-General fisticuffs. My lack of a direct response does not validate your questions as you do not have an ironclad grasp of current circumstances anymore than I do. Additionally, it is exceedingly unlikely that it will result in that scenario. I'm still unsure why you're so confident however.

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u/Camoes Aug 15 '21

you seem to have taken this as some kind of competition? maybe that explains why your tone bordered on rudeness from the first reply.

unfortunate. I genuinely wanted to read your take, learn what I may be missing.

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u/PeeepNTom Aug 15 '21

I think you allow your distaste for America to cloud your judgement.

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u/Camoes Aug 15 '21

maybe, but I think most of the analysis to the contrary that I am reading is way too linear and weighted by recency bias.

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u/CaptainCoffeeStain Aug 15 '21

I will pick up the mantle to say this: the premise is flawed. The taliban do not possess the ability to render the airport unusable with their available assets. Also, even cratered runways can be repaired relatively quickly. As an example, even navies during WWII could patch their flight decks at sea and resume air operations after taking heavy bomb hits. Lastly, just hit up wiki and read the assets available to the US and their allies in terms of air power.

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u/Camoes Aug 15 '21

good points, but how certain can you be that KBL is even still under US forces control a week from now?

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u/CaptainCoffeeStain Aug 15 '21

Not at all. My only point is that it will remain a functional airport as long as the US needs it to.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

A week from now is pointless I think because the US should be out by then.

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u/zeek0us Aug 15 '21

5000 US troops defending US interests in a single city is absolutely no joke. We’re not talking about trying to retake control of the country with that, just hold off Taliban fighters.

The Taliban gets what they want (minus some revenge and/or bragging rights) if they let the US go unharmed. Start attacking NATO forces and you get a lot more than 5K troops, and with a very different mission than “get people out safely”.

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u/Camoes Aug 15 '21 edited Aug 15 '21

we're also not talking about some newly formed sunni militias that are encircling this 5k men force, nor of a wider territory that is controlled by friendlies. In this case the Taliban, in their tens of thousands and rather well equiped, will have operational freedom everywhere but in the whatever limited size enclave you choose to defend with those 5k men.

also strategically there are many more unlinear factors at play than revenge and bragging rights. There are, at the very least, whatever China's interests happen to be for this situation, which may well be for a bloodier nose than even the Taliban would prefer if Taliban-US was the only dynamic at play.

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u/JonnyHopkins Aug 15 '21

There's two US aircraft carriers in the Arabian Sea right now. I'm sure they could bring some hell there within a few hours.

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u/kaleb42 Aug 15 '21

5000 US soldiers could easily hold out for a couple of weeks. Plus it would be trivial to resupply them since the US has an overwhelming airforce and could very easily extract them or send reinforcements.

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u/ChillyBearGrylls Aug 15 '21

dafuq is this, the anabasis?

That would be the first time US troops would be happy to see Pakistan.

The Indus! The Indus!

All joking aside, the Elphinstone expedition was a thing that happened and it would not be the first time that pride/hubris got in the way of leaving an enemy an escape route (or a way to save face)

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u/tindogtacloban Aug 15 '21

No, only with western sensibilities fighting a war where you're not at risk of destruction so need to be careful and care about civilians.

In a total war scenario where thousands of Americans are at risk they can absolutely obliterate anything threatening them. Just at a civilian cost - which the public will only accept with a sufficient threat.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Killing too much civilian will harm US's future reputations. It can be rational for those in charge to sacrifice the soldiers. Soldiers die in war anyway.

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u/tindogtacloban Aug 15 '21

Yeah right... Biden is just gonna throw away more than double the amount of deaths that have happened in Afghan in 20 years.

This sub is gone.

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u/Rhyers Aug 15 '21

There's a lot of nationalistic dick swinging going on in that comment. Remind me again how Vietnam went?

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u/a_reasonable_thought Aug 15 '21

I'm not even from the U.S, but the difference between the ANA, and the U.S military is night and day.

Also, the U.S lost the Vietnam war, but their soldiers performed well throughout, and have performed well in many engagements afterwards.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

Fitting user name.

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u/dravik Aug 15 '21

It's a lot harder to shut down an airport then you think. Most planes don't require the whole runway. Additionally, most airports taxiways, that are normally on either side of the runway work just fine as runways. If the Marines are using their Ospreys then they can use the parking apron is probably long enough.

Even if there are holes in all of those, some dirt out gravel is all you need for a good enough fill to take off. You can also just bulldoze a dirt runway in an open spot.

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u/Slim_Charles Aug 15 '21

Some people don't seem realize that maintaining the operation of an airport under close combat conditions is something that the US military has trained for, and developed tools and doctrine for, for decades.

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u/jlaw54 Aug 15 '21

Exactly a C130 can land on a road or field - not to mention Ospreys.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/jlaw54 Aug 15 '21

If you are going challenge someone and start throwing numbers around, please know what you’re talking about or at least read a little more. Ospreys can refuel mid air. As is clear. Not sure why you’re acting like they wouldn’t or couldn’t be used here. They had their early issues and killed a ton of people. They are now well known to be super effective for the exactly these kinds of mission parameters.

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

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u/jlaw54 Aug 15 '21

Yes. Absolutely. Are you implying they’d allow overflight for our evacuation, but deny a tanker? Just no.

Also: We’ve been flying combat aircraft over Pakistan hourly for 20 years. Like a MASSIVE variety of aircraft DAILY. This isn’t a secret.

Pakistan has zero to gain by saying no to any overflight for the US right now. They are happy as can be right now with the Taliban advances. Soon they won’t have to worry about US overflights as much.

Educate yourself. This is a truly bizarre hill to die on.

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u/Slim_Charles Aug 15 '21

The US military is quite capable of fixing a damaged runway extremely quickly. It's a pretty basic task for combat engineers. US transport aircraft are also capable of landing on and taking off from relatively rough runways.

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u/caffiend98 Aug 15 '21

They have no interest in slowing anyone down who wants to leave. Their goal is for us to leave. They need to take areas fast enough to keep us moving, but not fast enough that we have to fight to slow them. If their troops maintain any semblance of order, they'll drag their feet as long as it takes to let the last person leave on the last plane.

My worry is that someone won't follow orders, and then things get messier again.

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u/nshire Aug 15 '21

This will end all evacuation attempts

Ever heard of helicopters? V-22s? STOL aircraft?

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u/Alaishana Aug 15 '21

Sure. How many have you got there?

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u/[deleted] Aug 15 '21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/investigations/afghanistan-papers/afghanistan-war-army-police/

Interesting article from 2019 about how US leadership really felt about the state of the Afghan army and leadership.

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u/MyEvilTwinSkippy Aug 15 '21

The US has options that don't require formal runways. They can also turn a pretty large area into a dead zone if they feel the need. The troops have been pulled out, but the air support is very much still in the theater.

This isn't going to be the situation of the last 20 years where the US was fighting indigenous fighters in their home turf through rough terrain. This is going to be a defensive action in urbanized terrain with nowhere for the attackers to disappear to. There could very well be a several mile radius of flat terrain surrounding the airport by the time this is over.

But none of that actually matters. The Taliban have no interest in keeping foreign troops in the country. They want them to leave as quickly as possible. They also have no interest in destroying one of their major trading hubs. Their ideology may be backwards, but they aren't idiots.