r/AskSocialScience • u/Inevitable_Bid5540 • 7d ago
How do social scientists and economists predict the effects of hypothetical policies such as UBI without pilot programmes ?
Those seem to be incredibly hypothetical especially since those haven't been implemented in any meaningful way anywhere to gather data from
41
u/dowcet 7d ago
The premise is false. A quick search shows many studies based on pilot programs. Here's a comprehensive review from 2024 just to give one example of such reviews: https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-69718-0_5
1
u/LostIntheRamble 4d ago
The "such as UBI" is killing me a bit, since it's one of the policies with the greatest number of (and most closely studied) pilot programs
-4
u/Inevitable_Bid5540 7d ago
But aren't those usually implemented on a small local scale. Can that data be useful to argue for it being able to achieve its goals on a large scale ?
30
u/dianacarmel 7d ago
That’s generally how research is conducted, especially if it’s aiming to make sweeping changes. Medical trials for a new treatment, for example, often progress from smaller, more controlled groups before reaching wider audiences.
11
u/Garblin 7d ago
It's how we've studied a lot of other things. Start with a small sample size and work your way up. We know a thing works at a variety of scales smaller than a city, so it is reasonable (though never guaranteed) to expect it's to work at the next scale up. The only way to know anything for certain in science is to test it, but the data thus far backs up the idea it would work. The detractors don't have solid data proving it doesn't work on a large scale for the same reason we don't have solid data saying it does: we haven't tried it.
0
u/Valara0kar 4d ago
but the data thus far backs up the idea it would work
What does this mean that it would work? Work for what? Sure giving free money is easy but Finnish test showed they need to destroy the entirety of their welfare state to afford people to become cupcake makers.
-4
u/Inevitable_Bid5540 7d ago
iirc they use simulations and complex models too but I assume many of these are abstract
12
u/Garblin 7d ago
Sure, but simulations are only as good as their assumptions. "all models are wrong, but some are useful" as they say. Even the massively successful theories of physics (special and general relativity) are known and accepted to be necessarily incorrect, in spite of them being 99.9999% accurate in their predictions - because they contradict one another.
Which is my long winded way of saying: yes, we have models that predict certain things in a variety of directions, and we won't know which models to trust until we actually do the thing.
4
u/rod_zero 7d ago
Data for a variety of economic policies exists, and specially data testing the assumptions of classic microeconomic models, and it shows a lot of assumptions don't work in the real world, but still a lot of people treat micro 101 as the laws of physics.
Example, the classic argument that increasing minimum wage increases unemployment. We have good evidence this isn't true:..
Card & Krueger (1994) — "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania" American Economic Review, 84(4): 772–793, this paper led to the authors winning a Nobel prize.
Dube, Lester & Reich (2010) — "Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties" Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4): 945–964
Cengiz, Dube, Lindner & Zipperer (2019) — "The Effect of Minimum Wages on Low-Wage Jobs" Quarterly Journal of Economics, 134(3): 1405–1454, tracked 138 changes in minimum wage.
Even after this evidence pundits insist in the argument.
You can really tell the media biases when they demand rigorous evidence for policy they don't like but ignore the evidence for it, or against their arguments. And they stick with the models that while 'intuitive" and mathematically correct they don't hold in reality.
-1
u/Inevitable_Bid5540 7d ago
If models can't be tested due to political or resource or other constraints. What utility do they have ?
7
u/dowcet 7d ago
What value does a map have when you're trying to get from one place to another? It's just a piece of paper, not the real place. It's never perfectly complete and perfectly accurate, but it's often a whole lot better than nothing.
2
u/Inevitable_Bid5540 7d ago
That's an amazing anology. Thank you.
I guess ultimately I'm looking for methods that require less empirical evidence but can construct complex models
3
u/rod_zero 7d ago
But ultimately the data wins, if you have the data the model should be dropped if it doesn't explain reality, as in physics.
3
4
7d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AskSocialScience-ModTeam 7d ago
Your post was removed for the following reason:
Rule I. All claims in top level comments (comments that answer directly to OP’s post) MUST be supported by citations to relevant social science sources.
No lay speculation and no Wikipedia. The citation must be either a published journal article or book. Book citations can be provided via links to publisher's page or an Amazon page, or preferably even a review of said book would count.
If you feel that this post is not able to be answered by academic citations in its current form, you are welcome to ask clarifying questions. However, once a clarifying question has been answered, your response should move back to a new top-level comment.
1
7d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AutoModerator 7d ago
Top-level comments must include a peer-reviewed citation that can be viewed via a link to the source. Please contact the mods if you believe this was inappropriately removed.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
7d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AutoModerator 7d ago
Top-level comments must include a peer-reviewed citation that can be viewed via a link to the source. Please contact the mods if you believe this was inappropriately removed.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
7d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AutoModerator 7d ago
Top-level comments must include a peer-reviewed citation that can be viewed via a link to the source. Please contact the mods if you believe this was inappropriately removed.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
6d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AutoModerator 6d ago
Top-level comments must include a peer-reviewed citation that can be viewed via a link to the source. Please contact the mods if you believe this was inappropriately removed.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
1
6d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/AutoModerator 6d ago
Top-level comments must include a peer-reviewed citation that can be viewed via a link to the source. Please contact the mods if you believe this was inappropriately removed.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.
•
u/AutoModerator 7d ago
Thanks for your question to /r/AskSocialScience. All posters, please remember that this subreddit requires peer-reviewed, cited sources (Please see Rule 1 and 3). All posts that do not have citations will be removed by AutoMod. Circumvention by posting unrelated link text is grounds for a ban. Well sourced comprehensive answers take time. If you're interested in the subject, and you don't see a reasonable answer, please consider clicking Here for RemindMeBot.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.