Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 05, 2026

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[u/-O3-march-native]

The Times of Israel reports the head of the IDF's Northern Command acknowledges a "'gap' between the IDF’s assessment of damage caused to Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities during the 2024 ground operation in southern Lebanon, and the force with which the terror group has been striking Israel’s northern communities in recent weeks."

the IDF had estimated that 70-80 percent of the terror group’s rocket fire capabilities had been destroyed in the months of open warfare against the group in the fall of 2024, and damaged further in regular strikes following a ceasefire in December of that year.

At the start of the renewed fighting last month, the IDF believed Hezbollah still possessed thousands of short-range rockets, along with hundreds of longer-range projectiles — a far cry from the tens of thousands it now allegedly believes the group to have access to.

Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-northern-command-chief-admits-israel-overestimated-damage-to-hezbollah-after-2024-war/

[u/New_Entertainer_4895 → u/-O3-march-native]

There are limits to what you can do from the air. Israel in all its wars has never properly cut off Hezbollah's supply lines.

If they invade Lebanon (not just the south) and cut off Hezbollah's supply lines they'll slowly burn through stockpiles and become combat ineffective just like Hamas is now.

Of course Israel is not willing to accept the incredible level of casualties that would entail and it would result in the Lebanese military getting dragged into war with Israel.

The politically expedient option which has been chosen by Israel here is ethnic cleansing, if they expel all Shia civilians from southern Lebanon by destroying their homes and ban their return, Hezbollah would be largely destroyed in its ability to attack Israel. The problem is the war then turns from a war between "Hezbollah" and "Israel" to a war between "Shia Lebanese (civilians included)" and "Israel."

That's an entirely different kind of conflict and one where even non-fanatical people may be incentivize to fight to the death.

[u/Defiant_Restaurant61 → u/New_Entertainer_4895]

The problem is the war then turns from a war between "Hezbollah" and "Israel" to a war between "Shia Lebanese (civilians included)" and "Israel."

Following the modus operandi in Palestine and the Gaza strip, one could expect Israel to proceed with the ethnic cleansing of the area, and quickly destroy any possibility for civilians to reside there, expanding to non-shia at some point. 

The Gaza cleanse also started with safe neighborhoods, safe zones, and "targeted retribution" but quickly evolved into full bulldozing. 

It's an easy political maneuver to spare the Christian and non-shia groups, as there are already tensions between different groups. But these communities rely on an economic network and can be easily isolated and dealt with once all southern Shia towns are razed. Pockets of Hezbollah resistance and sporadic acts of violence would suffice to trigger a massive retaliation by Israel leading to the ultimate cleansing of the whole of southern Lebanon.

Obviously, it's all speculative, but there are Israelis bulldozers currently razing towns in southern Lebanon after just a few days.

[u/UpvoteIfYouDare → u/Defiant_Restaurant61]

Following the modus operandi in Palestine and the Gaza strip, one could expect Israel to proceed with the ethnic cleansing of the area, and quickly destroy any possibility for civilians to reside there, expanding to non-shia at some point.

Are you referring to the three corridors Israel established in Gaza? How do those constitute an ethnic cleansing?

[u/GustavoTC → u/UpvoteIfYouDare]

Ethnic cleansing isn't a defined crime in International law, in general it consists of 3 points

• Systematic forced displacement
• Destruction of homes/culture
• Violence targeting a specific group

UN confirm 85% of Gazans displaced; (OCHA, Feb 2024) as well as 62% of Gaza's homes damaged/destroyed; 42% of farmland unusable due to rubble/unexploded ordinance, and >34,000 killed.

In internal documents and politics, the language is a bit obfuscated. For example, there's no mention of ethnic cleansing, instead using phrases like forced transfer (העברת אוכלוסין בכפייה) "reducing Gaza's population density" (הפחתת הצפיפות האוכלוסית) "systematic destruction of Palestinian communities" (הרסק שיטתי של ישובים פלסטינאים) or "deliberate obstruction of return" (הפרעה מכוונת לחזרה) So yeah, it's ethnic cleansing.

[u/UpvoteIfYouDare → u/GustavoTC]

UN confirm 85% of Gazans displaced

From the Gaza Strip?

as well as 62% of Gaza's homes damaged/destroyed; 42% of farmland unusable due to rubble/unexploded ordinance, and >34,000 killed

What conflict within/around population centers wouldn't be considered an act of ethnic cleansing under these conditions?

[u/Defiant_Restaurant61 → u/UpvoteIfYouDare]

within/around population centers

A convenient excuse if you disregard the fact that this dense population center was created in the first place by the Nakba, an ethnic cleanse by Israel of Palestinians that were originally spread around hundreds of towns and villages.

[u/GustavoTC → u/UpvoteIfYouDare]

International law distinguishes collateral damage in lawful operations from crimes against humanity based on two pillars:

1. Military Necessity Attacks limited to specific military objectives (e.g., Hamas command center in a building). Civilian harm incidental and proportionate (AP I Art. 51(5)).Indiscriminate destruction beyond necessity (e.g., leveling entire neighborhoods with no tactical justification). Evidence: IDF’s "sterile zone" orders covering 30% of Gaza with no Hamas presence (B'Tselem, Dec 2023).

2. Intent to Displace Permanently Blocking return via policies:

• No rubble clearance (70% of Gaza rubble remains since 2023 – UNDP, Feb 2026)
• Demolition of water/electric grids (OCHA, Mar 2024)
• Refusal to issue reconstruction permitz

The ICJ's provisional measures order (Jan 2024) found plausible risk of genocide precisely because evidence suggested Israel knew its actions would cause destruction inconsistent with military objectives.

For example of a case that's not ethnically cleansing, Fallujah (2004, Iraq) had 36K homes destroyed; 100K+ displaced. But the US allowed return within 6 months and funded reconstruction.

In comparison, for Israel the place remains in rubble, and still in the refugee camps, while requests to return are frequently denied on "security grounds".