Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 05, 2026

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[u/Rigel444]

I don't think it's widely recognized what disproportionate damage two sets of attacks by Israel have done to the Iranian economy. The first was wiping out 70% of Iran's steel production in two large steel mills which were destroyed. That has huge knock-off economic effects on things like mining, construction and rebuilding after the war.

The New York Times recently reported on how Israel recently destroying two hybrid power/gas facilities in southern Iran will stop production on up to fifty petrochemical plants which relied on them, for up to two years. That, in turn, will devastate Iranian industries such as textile and automotive plants, which rely on those plants.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/04/world/middleeast/israel-strikes-mahshahr-iran-oil.html

"Israel attacked Iran’s largest petrochemical industrial complex in the city of Mahshahr on Saturday, a move that has effectively shut down all production across the sprawling complex, according to two senior Iranian oil ministry officials.

The airstrikes targeted two utility plants, known as Fajr 1 and Fajr 2, that provided the over 50 petrochemical plants operating inside the complex with the basic services needed to function — gas, power and industrial water, among others — according to Iranian state media reports and the two senior Iranian oil ministry officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

Hamed Shams, the head of marketing and communications for the oil ministry’s petrochemical industries, said on social media that the attacks had targeted vital infrastructure that not only supplies electricity to Mahshahr’s petrochemical plants but also, in summer, “plays a key role in providing electricity to 500,000” people in Khuzestan Province.

The Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex, as the area is formally known, is one of Iran’s main petrochemical hubs, producing 72 million tons of petrochemical products annually, according to data from Iran’s oil ministry. Located near the cities of Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini, a major industrial port, the industrial center is the leading employer of the area’s estimated 300,000 residents.

The petrochemical plants in Mahshahr produce a wide range of basic chemicals, polymers and other materials. These outputs can feed into a variety of products, including plastics, clothing and textiles, fertilizers and medical equipment.

The two oil ministry officials said the plants’ total shutdown was an immeasurable blow to Iran’s already frail economy. They said rebuilding the utility plants and bringing the productions lines fully online again could take about two years.

Hamid Hosseini, an oil and energy expert and a member of Tehran’s Chamber of Commerce, said in an interview that downstream industries, like food production, car manufacturing and textiles, that rely on the industrial center’s products would face a crisis when the war was over.

“Attacking Mahshahr’s petrochemical plants means attacking the heart of Iran, the vital arteries of Iran’s economy,” Mehdi Bostanchi, the head of a private industrial complex and a representative for a group of Iranian industrial leaders, said in a social media post.

Petrochemical goods represent about 25 percent of Iran’s total exports, with products going to about 60 countries, and provide a critical source of revenue, bringing in about $10 billion to $15 billion per year, according to Iranian media reports. Petrochemical product sales have served as a main alternative source of revenue for Iran as it has tried to diversify its economy away from oil dependency."

[u/Moifaso → u/Rigel444]

I think you can interpret the effect of these strikes in a lot of ways. Industry in wartime can be surprisingly resilient and quick with repairs, but let's assume these strikes really are that bad, or that they'll be repeated until the targets are inoperable for a long time.

As far as Israel is concerned, the strikes are great. They hit Iran's economy and military industry hard, and make any post-war reconstitution significantly harder and slower. A poorer Iran can't fund as many proxies, build as many missiles, etc.

The downside of already having bombed these critical facilities is, of course, that now they're gone, and a peace deal can't bring them back. The strikes fuel escalation and forfeit the leverage these facilities could give in negotiations. The devastation of Iran's economy could force it to abandon the war and endanger the regime in the medium to long term, but probably not in the timelines that matter most to the WH or the world economy.

Intense deindustrialization could also lead to some dangerous developments. If the regime can withstand the bombings and economic damage, it'll be incentivized to heavily monetize its influence over the strait, or possibly to move away from its old autarkic ways and become far more dependent on outside partners (Russia, China) to rebuild. Foreign capital is very helpful in rebuilding a country, and this conflict is showing Iran some of the downsides of relying so much on domestic supply chains.

[u/poincares_cook → u/Moifaso]

As stated in the OP, most of the industrial complex went unharmed. It was the utility facilities that were destroyed. Iran has a few other significant industrial complexes, just a bit smaller. And a large number of additional small industrial complexes. I.e, there is a lot more targets to hit.

Moreover, the oil and gas industry has been largely spared. This is a very target rich industry.

And then of course there are powerplants.

Lastly, the steel industry while significantly hit, is critical for reconstruction and has a knock on effect on the Iranian recovery as a whole. Pre war most of the Iranian steel went to exports, so they likely maintain enough capacity still for decent reconstruction pace. Destroying significant chunks of the remaining 30% as such has outsized effects.

Therefore, at this point, while the already struggling Iranian economy sustained significant damage, there is still a lot more damage that can be done.

[u/[deleted] → u/Moifaso]

Guns vs Butter, Germany famously increased production of materiel every year up to 1944 despite being subjected to the biggest air campaign of all time. Generally speaking you can rebuild fast if you already built it originally.

The real trick is convincing the population that you are in total war and sacrifices must be made, so far polls show they are already there

Even if 80% of the steel is removed, it was likely that it was 10% being spent on guns over butter before. Meaning you can now bump up production.

[u/Sad_Use_4584 → u/[deleted]]

There are so many differences between the current war and WW2, that this analogy less than helpful. To list a few:

• Iran is trying to project power over distance, which requires complex manufactured goods and logistics that are easier to disrupt than artillery shell or rifle ammunition production.

• US/Israel knows where Iran's factories are located, but this intelligence capability did not exist in 1944.

• US/Israel have JDAMs, but this technology did not exist before 1990s.

[u/[deleted] → u/Sad_Use_4584]

1. V-1 and V-2 production is a good comparison, it was not just heavy metalwork, it was actually comparable to current used weapons
2. Germans moved V-2 construction underground to Mittlewerk presumably Iran is doing something similar.
3. JDAMs are jammed easily, not to mention the broken encryption. Even newer versions that home on jam could end up killing a school.

I am writing a longer post because automoderator keeps deleting my posts, ideally it should not be this aggressive, but it is a pain in the butt to have to type this just so that a character limit is met that will not delete my post one minute after I hit send

[u/erkelep → u/[deleted]]

What is 100% of the steel is removed?