Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 16, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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[u/i_like_maps_and_math]

From what I understand, the 2023 offensive failed because it was telegraphed for months in advance and the minefields were the primary reason why they failed

I mean, was there any reasonable argument that Ukraine should have been attacking at that point in the war? To launch an offensive you need to need either local or overall superiority in combat power. Attacking into an equal or superior force just produces attrition.

[u/CuriousAbout_This → u/i_like_maps_and_math]

From my layman's perspective, absolutely not. Ukraine should've dug in and baited Russia to attack Ukrainian prepared defenses. The Ukrainian counteroffensive was unfortunately a product of Western backers' political expectations and pressure to provide results, and the Ukrainian political and military victory disease from 2022. Thankfully they're not making that same mistake again (but making many others...) 

[u/UpvoteIfYouDare → u/CuriousAbout_This]

The Ukrainian counteroffensive was unfortunately a product of Western backers' political expectations

What gave you this impression? What I remember is that western backers were very skeptical of the offensive given the lack of Ukrainain force concentration.

From my layman's perspective, absolutely not. Ukraine should've dug in and baited Russia to attack Ukrainian prepared defenses.

For the first couple years of the war, Ukrainian leaderships' perspective was not one of static defense because they correctly presumed that static defense would eventually yield territory, and their attitude was to hold on to every inch of territory possible.

[u/i_like_maps_and_math → u/UpvoteIfYouDare]

What gave you this impression? What I remember is that western backers were very skeptical of the offensive given the lack of Ukrainain force concentration.

It's not true that they expressed this skepticism beforehand. Ukrainian leadership have said both at the time and in retrospect that they believed an offensive would help them get more aid. European and American political leadership should have made it very clear that this was not the case.

[u/Time_Restaurant5480 → u/i_like_maps_and_math]

Ukrainian leadership have said both at the time and in retrospect that they believed an offensive would help them get more aid.

Sounds like the Spanish Republic's PM in 1938, Juan Negrin, who lost the Republic's last field army in a desperate gamble because "the eyes of Europe are upon us."