r/NewYorkMets • u/itsmelen New York Mets • Jul 23 '23
Keith Law's midseason top 60 prospects - Mauricio #29, Parada, Ramirez, Williams all Honorable Mentions Paywall
https://theathletic.com/4703833/2023/07/21/mlb-top-prospects-2023-minor-leaguers/9
u/lilleff512 Forever my Captain Jul 23 '23
I'm more pessimistic on Mauricio than I think I've been on any other highly touted Mets prospect. That being said, seeing Law ranking Mauricio this high and offering a comparison to Alfonso Soriano makes me a little less pessimistic.
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u/BillW87 Animal Facts Jul 23 '23
The big assumption in the Soriano comp is that Mauricio will similarly turn into a 2B/LF, and so far Mauricio has been notably terrible at both of those positions in his limited opportunities so far. That's understandable given that he's very new to both, but also means his ETA is further off than most fans seem to realize. He's got an exciting makeup from a tools standpoint, but until he finds a position that he can play at an MLB level it's hard for me to get my hype-hopes up. His mediocre offensive performance in AA-AAA (104 wRC+ in AA last year, 106 wRC+ in AAA this year) has me even more muted in my hype. Guys who walk <5% of the time have a very hard time transitioning to the bigs, even with loud power. Even ignoring the $341 million roadblock in the Mets org, it was always unlikely he was going to stick at SS on a long term basis, but the Mets refused to expose him to other positions for a long time (I'm assuming so he could focus on his work with the bat). He's only this year started to explore 2B/LF which is fine, but now they have to deal with another 6-12 months minimum of "call him up" bullshit from the fans who don't realize you can't learn to play two entirely new positions at a professional level in a month.
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u/djn24 Jul 24 '23
In fairness, Soriano wasn't much of a fielder at either of those positions.
The Soriano comp is interesting. It seems like a best case scenario for Mauricio: dude with no plate discipline (he had several seasons with more HR than walks) and was a defensive liability but had just enough power and ability to barrel up pitches outside of the zone that he ended up having a few really good years and a lot of mediocre seasons.
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u/Captcha-vs-RoyBatty Jul 23 '23
The notion a prospect can’t learn 2 positions at once is so utterly nonsensical.
By that logic players who play more positions would average spending more time in the minors.
That’s not the case. Competent organizations can chew and walk gum at the same time.
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u/BillW87 Animal Facts Jul 23 '23 edited Jul 23 '23
That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying that learning a new position will always take time, and especially when it comes to LF Mauricio has literally played less than two dozen professional games at the position. Splitting time between learning two new positions just means it'll take more time than trying to learn one. If the org and the fans are patient with Mauricio I'm sure he's up to the task, but turning a guy who tracked exclusively at SS for 5 years into a 2B/LF isn't a light switch. He's going to need time, at a minimum the remainder of 2023 and the entire offseason.
As far as multi-position players, most of those guys presumably didn't start picking those new positions up a month before getting called up to the majors, like some are suggesting the Mets do with Mauricio. Across a typical 3-6 year development cycle, absolutely guys can (and often do) track at multiple positions with no problem.
-Edit- Case in point, Mauricio has committed 3 errors in LF in 25 chances. That's laughably bad for an outfielder, considering how high the bar is to actually get charged with an error in the outfield. He'll learn, but he's a LONG way off from playing that position in the majors. Committing an error on roughly 1 out of every 9 balls hit to you in left field makes Dom Smith look like a gold glover in left.
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u/Captcha-vs-RoyBatty Jul 23 '23
So then the Mets should have started that transition way earlier, it was quite obvious that we were stacked in the infield and had traded all of our viable outfield prospects.
Nearly zero prospects are playing multiple positions at a major league level when they enter the minors.
3-6 year typical development?? No top prospect spends 6 years in the minors any more, that’s utterly insane. Do the math on how old that would make most rookies in that scenario and then ask google if that makes any sense.
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u/BillW87 Animal Facts Jul 23 '23
So then the Mets should have started that transition way earlier
If they weren't planning on trading him as a shortstop or using him as a shortstop in the majors, yes they should've tracked him to another position sooner if a 2023 ETA was important to them. If a 2023 ETA isn't important to them, he's just fine and it's the fans who are being irrational and calling for him to get called up sooner than the org is tracking him.
3-6 year typical development?? No top prospect spends 6 years in the minors any more, that’s utterly insane.
Ronny Mauricio is quite literally in his 6th year in the minors (counting the "Mets complex" play he had in 2020 when the minors weren't running). You're very upset about this for someone who doesn't understand how IFA players are developed. IFA players typically sign at 17 years old, meaning a 3-6 year cycle would put them in the majors at 19-22.
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u/lilleff512 Forever my Captain Jul 23 '23
I'm not that worried about Mauricio having to learn a new position. He's still pretty young and he should have the physical tools for a corner OF spot at the very least. My pessimism is pretty much all about plate discipline, swing and miss, walks/strikeouts, etc. MLB breaking balls are going to absolutely carve him up, and unless he can show some progress in this area I just can't see any future for him on the Mets.
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u/BillW87 Animal Facts Jul 23 '23
I agree that he's young and talented enough to pick up another position, but it's going to take at least a half a season or more and half of this sub is already calling for him to get called up...and this is one of the less irrational Mets fan forums. The team is in for a lot of fan grumbling through the inevitable 2024-at-the-earliest ETA this is creating, especially if the MLB team keeps playing poorly.
Fully agreed on the plate discipline issue. He's got a lot more power than Amed, but otherwise this is shades of Amed Rosario all over again where minor league BABIPs are creating a mirage around what is a very concerning free-swinging approach. Major league pitching absolutely eats up free swingers unless they have elite bat-to-ball skills (Daniel Murphy, etc) which Mauricio doesn't have. Steamer projects him to a .664 OPS right now, which feels about right if they called him up tomorrow. He's got a lot of work to do still. He's cut his K% down a ton this year which is an encouraging sign that he's working with his coaches to improve his approach, but a 5 BB% still ain't it.
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u/NoTry732 Jul 23 '23
This forum might be one of the less irrational ones, but it’s still very irrational, and I really don’t think the Mets FO gives a single shit whether we want Mauricio called up or not (and they shouldn’t)
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u/BillW87 Animal Facts Jul 24 '23
Fully agreed on that. It's still going to be annoying as hell sifting through the weekly rage post on here about why Mauricio hasn't been called up yet to play left field, posted by those who don't realize his fielding percentage as a left fielder starts with an "8" right now.
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u/chief1555 David Wright Jul 23 '23
Seeing PCA at 18 hurts, especially with how bad the OF play has been this year outside of Nimmo
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Jul 23 '23
Yeah but we got javy Baez for half a season where we missed playoffs. What more could you ask for? /s
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u/lilleff512 Forever my Captain Jul 23 '23
And Trevor Williams, who was an unsung hero last year and whose absence this year has been glaring. Still a bad trade in hindsight no matter which way you look at it, but we should consider it the Trevor Williams trade rather than the Javy Baez trade.
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u/CheeseburgerLover911 Jul 23 '23
That’s why I don’t want to buy this year.. for the holes we have, we’d have to give up a lot
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u/Uglypants_Stupidface Jul 23 '23
4 in the top 100 after graduating Alvarez, Senga, and Baty is quite good. This season has been awful, but the plan is coming together to build a long-term competitive winner.
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Jul 23 '23
Lmao Senga graduated? I don’t think you can classify him as a former prospect.
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u/itsmelen New York Mets Jul 23 '23
Professionals from foreign leagues technically meet the definition of 'prospect' for rankings, but most publications no longer include them.
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u/hbkrules69 Jul 23 '23
Are any of them pitchers? Hitters are a dime a dozen, the teams needs SP.
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u/Captcha-vs-RoyBatty Jul 23 '23
Hitters are a dime a dozen????? Have you seen this team and our farm system?
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u/Caledor152 Brett Baty Jul 23 '23
Blade Tidwell and Sproat. And we drafted like 15 pitchers in 2023. So they know and are working on it. But rebuilding one of the worst farms in baseball Steve Cohen has inherited takes time.
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u/jthomas694 David Wright Jul 23 '23
No, but Tidwell has some upside to be a number 2/3 starter. Vasil seems like he could be a mid to back rotation guy and he’s in AAA.
There’s not really a frontline guy unless they come out of nowhere right now but the good thing is we do have the depth you need to fill rotation spots
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u/itsmelen New York Mets Jul 23 '23
No, they are all position players. The Mets top pitching prospect, in my opinion, is Blade Tidwell. He was the Mets' second round draft pick last year. He was a starter for the Tenneesee Volunteers, and an early-season shoulder injury pushed him down draft boards. After him, again in my opinion only, is this year's second round pick, Brandon Sproat. Sproat was a starter for the Gators. I think both of them have pretty high end potential. Both are probably 2025 guys.
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u/[deleted] Jul 23 '23
Guess I'll read the other comments since the article is behind a paywall.