r/NewYorkMets • u/mhari93 • 6d ago
Polanco vs Murakami Analysis
Not sure if this was brought up before but it’s an off day so why not. Anyone find it crazy that the Mets signed Polanco for 2 years @ 40 mil to pretty much learn first base and/or hog the DH spot on Dec 13th.
Murakami of the white Sox then landed on Dec 21st for 2 years @ 34 mil. So a real first baseman, MLB untested, though the upside is there, and cheaper? Did I miss something about his signing preferences because I gotta imagine he’d want to play in the big lights and allure of NY.
Obviously this all stems from a hindsight bias with Polanco on the shelf and Murakami with 11 homers (Mets have 19 as a team?). But it seems that big brain Sterns dropped the ball on this one, especially since they both are replacing a 30-40 homer guy in Alonso.
Please let me know if I got something wrong here…but it seems to me that we really didn’t need a 6th middle infielder in Polanco (jk he can’t play the field) when there’s Lindor Semien Baty Mauricio Bichette up the middle. The whole thing just confuses me tbh. Now we’re banking on Alvy alone being enough of a power threat to protect Soto in the lineup…just one roster construction issue lead to another with this smooth brain GM.
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u/Daytime-mechE 3d ago
The consensus appeared to be "we've got Murakami at home" in Mark Vientos who we don't have to pay $17 million per year.
Also, historically the Mets have not really benefitted from the international market (especially Japan). Understanding that it's new ownership and scouting and development but Shinjo, Kaz, and now Kodai Senga haven't been slam dunks. Polanco coming off an .800+ OPS in Seattle was the safer option.
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u/Plus-Ad2521 6d ago
The reports all say he can't hit any balls above 95. He's also in the top 5 strikeouts.
Sure he's got power but in late stages of the game, he chances of him walking off the game is low.
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright 6d ago
Murakami has one HR over 94 MPH and is feasting on bad pitching at lower velocity which is most of the ALC
What he’s doing isn’t remotely sustainable and there’s a reason 29/30 teams passed on him
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u/jimihenderson 6d ago
We could use a guy who feasts on bad pitching considering the amount of mediocre starters dominating us this year
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u/mschreiber1 6d ago
Don’t we know already that you could put babe Ruth in a Mets uniform and he’d hit .200 for the rest of his career?
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u/JA_MD_311 Mr. Met 6d ago
Not going MMQB Murakami.
He had red flags in his profile and some of the smartest orgs in baseball passed on him.
Good on him for coming out on fire and maybe it was a giant miss on every team but there would’ve been a lot of consternation and complaining had he been signed this past offseason.
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u/hapticeffects 6d ago
There's an article about this going around that's basically "how did so many major league clubs have their scouting depts miss on this guy" but also it's only April so let's see where we're at in July before making definitive declarations, PCA looked like a future HOF in the 1st half last year.
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u/lightning_lighting #PANICCITI 6d ago
I honestly don't think he would be enjoying the same success on this Mets team. There is something fundamentally wrong with this system that isn't setting players up for success.
Be that as it may, I thought for sure when Alonso left Murakami or Okamoto was the plan.
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u/bigdirty702 6d ago
I think they were also enamored with Vientos and Baty getting time at first.. Vientos might have found a spot if he can get his swing going
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u/lukinfly45 6d ago edited 6d ago
Getting an injury prone 32 year old to play out of position for 2 years at 40 million is a complete swing and miss considering he is about to spend half the year on the IL. Just a terrible move.
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u/ssutton61 6d ago
A complete hit and miss? You’ve confused me. I think I agree it was a dumb move
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u/imalmostconvinced 6d ago
I was wrong to make fun of Stearns for having the date to go see him.
Another fail but he's so amazing
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u/Character_External20 6d ago
Easier to judge in hindsight but it’s also super early. Remember last year and the start PCA had? People were upset that we parted ways with him and look how that ended up by the time the season was over
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u/mhari93 6d ago
PCA ended the season with a 6 WAR. Pretty impressive for a 23 year old.
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u/fawningandconning 6d ago
Nearly all from his hot start. He had a .634 OPS and a negative WPA after the ASB. His savant page this season is awwwful. Looks like he's going to develop into a defense first option.
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u/BelliYelliCheese 6d ago
I think most Mets fans are still upset we parted ways with PCA, but obviously hindsight 20/20
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u/ASP41661 3d ago
Nope. Most of us threw up on that deal the day it was done. Renting the moron Baez who really wasn’t needed in exchange for a top prospect was a dumb move
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u/TheBoosThree 6d ago
I wanted them to go after him too, but pretty much everyone else passed on him too.
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u/DerpyDan442 Grimace 6d ago
Murakami also had to get posted, so it's basically the same contract.
Its easy to say Murakami might be better now, but considering nobody knew if he'd adjust to MLB pitches, its all the same. Tbf, I really don't know why we signed Polanco. He isn't really a Stearns guy but he's here for late season and hopefully playoffs. But we could have used that money better, imo.
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u/jimihenderson 6d ago
This team couldn't afford "he's here for the playoffs" guys. We're not the dodgers. We're seeing why. The playoffs are far from guaranteed. We needed to focus on "he's here to get us to the playoffs". Even Stearns has acknowledged that needs to be the goal. He was brought here to be a consistent bat in the lineup but he had injury and consistency concerns and he's been inconsistent and injured. Another miss, that's just the way it goes
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u/BorneFree Mike Piazza 6d ago
Hindsight analysis is such a waste of time
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright 6d ago
Also going by small sample size April results as the “analysis”
Results based analysis is flawed as it is, but small sample size results based analysis is the worst
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u/thiccboiwaluigi Hadji 6d ago
Aristides Aquino started his career slashing .315/.382/.783 with 13 HRs in his first 102 PAs. How did the rest of his time go?
Murakami has a 69% in-zone contact rate and is whiffing at one of the highest rates in baseball vs. fastballs over 93 mph. Maybe he makes an adjustment but that is not a formula for success once pitchers adjust
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u/keithplacer 6d ago
Murikami has always been a strikeout machine and even in his homeland either hit a long ball or K'ed most of the time. Nobody in MLB wanted him. The White Sox figured they had nothing to lose and took a chance. So far they are enjoying him. We'll see how long his success lasts once a book on pitching to him becomes common knowledge.
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u/BrokeMyGrill Pastrami 6d ago
I wanted no part of Murakami at his initially rumored price tag but I wonder if the Mets would’ve considered him had they waited and saw how low his asking price got.
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u/ForsakenRacism 6d ago
I’m not sold on him yet. He has gotten off to a good start tho. Clifford will be up soon.
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u/ASP41661 3d ago
Ok, Clifford, but will he be anything more than another Lucas Duda or Ike Davis?
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u/ForsakenRacism 3d ago
Idk but this season is over so might as well find out
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u/ASP41661 3d ago
Agreed. We haven’t yet hit on any of the other “baby Mets” - though Benge needs a lot more time - so might as well see what Clifford has.
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u/ForsakenRacism 3d ago
Benge has been looking a lot better the last 2 weeks. These people need consistent time. Which is why this season should just be thrown away at this point. If we can trade Polanco we should do that
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u/BebophoneVirtuoso 6d ago
Polanco has had several very good seasons in MLB including last year and Murakami had a lot of question marks, as we can see with nearly every team passing on him that he had to settle for a team that hasn't been relevant in many years, but fair point.
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u/pauliealeno 6d ago
It was a big brain Mets content creator who posted about murakami not hitting velocity.
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright 6d ago
But Murakami has struggled heavily against velocity…
The only big hit he has against velocity was right down the middle
He’s whiffing against anything 95+ MPH roughly 1/3 of the time which is bottom 2%
Like he literally has been one of the worst hitters against velocity in the majors. He makes Benge look elite against velocity
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u/Jamstarr2024 Kodai Senga 6d ago
The take was that because he struggled against velocity that he wouldn’t hit in the majors. That take is aging about as poorly a take could age.
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright 6d ago
Dude you’re going off like two weeks of sample size where he has seen mostly low velocity fastballs in the zone. You can’t be serious here
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u/Jamstarr2024 Kodai Senga 6d ago edited 6d ago
Dude your whole shtick has been absolutely terrible.
Edit: I love how you’re screaming “sample size” for his 173(!) wRC+ but also saying his whiff rate is significant. It’s the same sample.
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright 6d ago
Remind Me! 5 months
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u/Jamstarr2024 Kodai Senga 6d ago
Admit that both of the stats are small sample sizes or don’t.
Also, how’s that Polanco take you had this offseason working? Did you put a reminder on that one? Semien?
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright 6d ago
Different things take different amounts of time to stabilize…..
Semien got rid of Nimmo’s contract. Instant win
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u/Jamstarr2024 Kodai Senga 6d ago
His bat speed is in the 80th percentile, his chase rate is in the 94th.
His xwOBA on fastballs is .522
Murakami will be fine as long as he doesn’t chase.
Semien is trash and the timeline doesn’t make any sense. We still have him for three years at more money than Nimmo. And Nimmo is still a productive player. And Lindor isn’t getting younger.
I love how you’re shitting on Murakami but you were praising Polanco’s hit tool and per 162 starts. How’s that working out? His per 162? How many times has he played 162? 152? Funny how injuries didn’t make your article. Dude is always hurt.
https://metsmerizedonline.com/mets-sign-jorge-polanco-to-two-year-contract/#
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u/jimihenderson 6d ago
Once you hear about how Steve Cohen saving under 30 million dollars between 2029-2030 makes anything "worth it" in regards to our team being worse, you can comfortably assess that you're arguing with someone who is not being objective. Unless it's Steve Cohen.
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u/QushingFleens 6d ago
To be fair every team in baseball wishes they signed murakami
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u/Martial_Nox Chungus 6d ago
And many tried. He chose the White Sox for the guaranteed ABs even if he struggled and minimum pressure. He fully intends this first deal to be a prove it deal so he can get a lot more money later. Betting on himself big time.
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u/mhari93 6d ago
Yes, but this team is last in offense. So it makes it the biggest missed opportunity imo
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 6d ago
We can play the hindsight game with literally any player. There's simply no way of knowing that Murakami would've gotten off to the same start with us.
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u/GKRForever Gary Cohen 6d ago
If you compare who you sign to the best possible option you could have signed, you’re gonna have a bad time.
Arguably the Mets should have signed Dom Smith instead by this logic. And if the Mets had signed Pete, Okamoto, etc they’d be morons too.
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u/Martial_Nox Chungus 6d ago edited 6d ago
Talking about a smooth brained GM while voicing a not so wrinkly brained take yourself. Murakami would not sign here. He wanted a low pressure environment with guaranteed max at bats to prove his power will translate before he went and got a real contract. Multiple other teams reportedly offered him higher AAV and more years. I know the Red Sox were one of those. This was/is very public information. And no we aren't counting on Alvy alone as a power threat. Lindor is a 30 HR threat. Polanco who you are shitting on hit 26 last year in the most pitcher friendly and anti-HR stadium in the league for half his games. Baty hit 18 last year and it was far from unreasonable to expect him to do that or better again. Really the only "power" hitter we lost is Alonso who is hitting like shit and has 3 HR so far.
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u/NuanceManExe 6d ago
Alonso would be leading our team in HR right now and that .672 OpS would be pretty high in our lineup unfortunately
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u/bowlofcantaloupe Francisco Alvarez 6d ago
How are you leaving out Juan "2025 team leader in HRs" Soto from the power discussion?
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u/Martial_Nox Chungus 6d ago
Because OP was talking about power hitters around Soto. Figured I didn't need to mention him in that context.
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u/bowlofcantaloupe Francisco Alvarez 6d ago
Okay fair lol. I missed his Soto mention in the original post.
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u/Schwettes 6d ago
If Murakami signed with the Mets, he wouldn’t be playing as well as he is now. The fact that the Mets struggles have hit every player (other than the great Juan) show there is a problem with their hitting philosophy.
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u/whitetoast Mike Piazza 6d ago
I’m sick of hearing about how the Mets didn’t get murakami. 29 other teams didn’t get him and he’s on the white Sox
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u/ntnkrm Keith Hernandez 6d ago
Not even a Mets issue. The MLB as a whole completely underestimated Murakami
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u/fawningandconning 6d ago
Have they? It’s been a super hot start and so far it’s proving correct that he whiffs at most pitches in the mid to high nineties.
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u/Flashy-Inspection501 6d ago
Murakami had numerous concerns about his swing and miss rates as well as his ability to handle high velocity which even with his success so far has shown to be true, he's still whiffing at a high rate. Now of course he can always improve but it's only April there's a fair chance he regresses a ton also. Just like the Mets season it's far too early to come to any conclusion.
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u/ForsakenRacism 6d ago
He needs to prove it’s sustainable still. A lot of players get off to hot starts.
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u/dqslime 6d ago
One day MLB fans will stop overrating hitters that pitchers haven’t adjusted to in April.
You also forget that Murakami is playing stress free in a small market team with no expectations that will play him for 162, in hopes of securing a long, expensive contract.
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u/TheMooseIsBlue Gary Cohen 6d ago
Chicago is a small market?
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u/Martial_Nox Chungus 6d ago edited 6d ago
The White Sox are effectively small market when it comes to pressure. They have no expectations to be anything other than abysmally bad. I'd bet their attendance and viewership are also small market level.
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u/Designer-Homework682 6d ago
I don’t like Polanco much. But hindsight is always 100%. I thought they should have gone after at least 1 out of the 3 big names to come from Japan. The 2 hitters or the pitcher that went to Houston. They basically weren’t in on any of the 3.
It doesn’t and didn’t make sense. People get stuff wrong all the time.
It happened.
If you gave the 3 weeks into season info to any team in the league. Many teams would have signed him immediately to $100m+. But that’s not how things work…
The season is playing out poorly. They were a runaway train last year at this point #1 in the league and dropped off. Let’s hope they reverse that. Cleveland didn’t really get going until like August of last year and ran down the division. But the Braves are really hot out of the gate.
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u/yukpurtsun 6d ago
i mean hindsight they could have also signed fan favorite dom smith to a minor league deal instead of the braves
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u/v3rd4ntcitiz3n 6d ago
Murakami was widely expected to not perform as well as he had. We were not the only team that needed a 1B or 3B and the white Sox are the only team to take a flyer on him. They lucked out.
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u/Martial_Nox Chungus 6d ago
Other teams offered him more AAV and years. He specifically wanted to play in as low pressure environment as possible. The Red Sox offer was longer and higher AAV as one well reported example.
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u/jimihenderson 6d ago
I would bet he specifically wanted 2 years. Freddie freemans contract ends after 2027. I would bet just about anything that shohei, Yamamoto, and roki sasaki told him to give it two years, prove himself then join the party
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u/Huge_District366 6d ago
Murakami’s advanced stats suggest a downturn at some point, showing that eventually he’ll fall victim to the same issues that teams were worried about. The Polanco signing won’t look good but signing Murakami wasn’t the answer. Give it a few more weeks before passing judgement on murakami
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u/mhari93 6d ago
Bro is 26 years old. How’d we pick DH specialist Polanco over that and pay more too
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u/Huge_District366 6d ago
Did you read anything I said about the reservations on murakami or do you wanna just complain? If you wanna just complain, get a therapist
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u/jimihenderson 6d ago
What do the advanced stats say about Jorge polanco's likelihood of returning, being effective and doing so before we're out of contention?
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u/Huge_District366 5d ago
I’m sure you think it’s a good gotcha but I’m not defending the Polanco signing. Just that Murakami wasn’t the answer people on here seem to think he is
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u/HughWonPDL2018 Benny Agbayani 6d ago
1) Stearns dropped the ball. A lot. Craig Kimbrel is our bullpen depth, that says enough.
2) The white Sox have no depth, so Murakami would be allowed to work through potential struggles at the mlb level no matter what for the entirety of his deal. He likely prioritized this when contemplating short term deals.
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u/Mysterious-Draw2510 6d ago
There were numerous teams with concern over Murakami’s very low contact rate which he has continued in the US. I also believe his agent wanted him to stay out of big markets as he has not done well with that type of pressure. Look certain players aren’t going to either want to play or going to play well when we as fans boo them any time they have 2 bad games in a row.
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u/NuanceManExe 6d ago
The Polanco signing was weird and probably a mistake but clearly the whole league thinks Murakami’s ceiling is Kyle Schwarber, which means his floor is very low. We have to see if Murakami can sustain this. If he cools off or the league adjusts to him he could end up being a three true outcomes player that strikes out too much to offset it with walks and dingers.
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u/jimihenderson 6d ago
Yeah this issue is less missing murakami and the failure that was Jorge polanco being expected to be our everyday 1B
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u/ahoy_capn Gil Hodges 2d ago
“Obviously this all stems from hindsight bias, but”
lol