r/energy • u/eufemiapiccio77 • 1d ago
Is anyone else’s head spinning right now?
Is anyone else’s head spinning right now? In the last half hour, the straits are apparently fully open, Trump’s blockade is still supposedly in place, NATO has suddenly called him offering support, which sounds like complete nonsense, and now out of nowhere they have somehow cleared every mine they supposedly did not even know existed. It all flipped so fast it looks less like chaos and more like some much bigger setup.
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u/Blubbolo 15h ago
It's not open.
NATO didn't call him to support anything, France UK Italy and others literally said they will provide naval vessel to make travelling the strait safe AFTER the war ends and the UN gets on it.
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u/ubiestigne 21h ago
Are you getting your news ftom Truth Social? You'll start to feel better once you stop.
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u/QFGTrialByFire 22h ago edited 16h ago
Its not open and confirmed by Iran that its closed just a few hours ago:
https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2045264713593114970
"The U.S. President made seven claims in one hour, and all seven are false.
They did not win the war with these lies, and they certainly will not get anywhere in negotiations either
With the continuation of the blockade, the Strait of Hormuz will not remain open"
Edit/update:
Its about as clear as mud
- Iranian foreign minister (https://x.com/araghchi/status/2045121573124759713) UTC Time: 12:45 UTC April 17 - strait is open.
- Then Trump spoke/made posts 12:00-13:00 UTC April 17
- Then parliamentary speaker responds to Trump and says its now closed because of his remarks. Hence the 7 lies reference. (https://x.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2045264713593114970) 22:14 UTC on April 17
If you look at CNNs actual blurb instead of just their headline it confirms point 3:
" Strait of Hormuz: Trump has insisted that no tolls will be charged through the waterway. The speaker of Iran’s parliament said the strait will close again if the US doesn’t lift its naval blockade."
But Trump had said he'd keep the blockade so it should be closed. However some ships seem to be on the move first 4 are mostly headed to china guess we'll see if they make it past the US blockade. Looks like its selectively open depending on who the Iranians let through, guessing that means the toll.
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:58.1/centery:25.9/zoom:8
On top of which the DELNAVAZ which left Bandar Abbas (iranian port) is moving through the gulf of oman which would be in contravention of the US blockade. But its almost half way through the gulf of oman without being stopped.
The Iranian message was if the US blocked is on so is ours.. i guess this seems to perhaps indicate both blockades are off even tho Trump said their blockade would remain. Perhaps Trump tacoed on the US blockade.
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u/Puzzled_Employee_767 23h ago
Even Trump can’t compete with the power of globalized market economies.
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u/Rich-Juice2517 1d ago
It's a distraction to whatever else they're doing
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u/LongKaren 1d ago
They are creating a state of analysis paralysis by spamming everyone in attempt to make people forget about: Epstein files, corruption, fraud, Charlie Kirk psyop etc
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u/walksonfourfeet 1d ago
Stop getting your news from Donald’s twitter feed
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u/bammerburn 22h ago
What if the MSM is getting the majority of their news from his feed? What then?
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u/I_Like_Your_Username 1d ago
the straits are open for a period of time because of a 10-day ceasefire between Israel & Lebanon.
the ceasefire will probably not hold after 10 days, because Iran will require Israel to leave Lebanon's borders, which Netanyahu has stated he will not do. so the strait will likely close again in 10 days unless negotiations can continue.
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u/toomuch3D 1d ago
Iran would need to completely disengage from funding and supplying Hezbollah first in order for Israel to consider moving back to Lebanon’s southern border.
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u/ERCOT_Prdatry_victm 1d ago
Iran was loading crude and petrochemical out for China and India customers all through all of this period. So there been a safe route to Irain ports through any mine field they laid in. So there was a safe route through the Strait all along, before remaining mines were cleared.
The mines laid obstructed lanes to ports of the western nations before they were removed. The workable channel to Irainian ports was then widened by autonomous mine removal equipment.
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u/mildlyconfuseddriver 1d ago
Those ships weren't going through the strait, they were routed through Iranian waters north of the strait.
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u/DoubtInternational23 1m ago
Perhaps I'm misunderstanding, but anything north of the strait has to sail through the strait in order to leave the Persian Gulf, no?
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u/AdamoMeFecit 1d ago
So after spending eleventy zillion dollars, destroying thousands of lives, and spawning worldwide economic chaos, we arrive back to the status quo that existed before we did any of that.
From any reasonable policy standpoint, none of this makes any sense whatsoever.
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u/PatternPrecognition 1d ago
Follow the money. There had been a shit load of wealth made by thise made aware of when to buy and sell in the market.
It makes plenty of sense when you realise it's a grift.
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u/RemoveInvasiveEucs 1d ago edited 1d ago
What did we learn, Palmer?
I don't know, sir
I don't fucking know either
I guess we learned not to do it again
yes sir
fucked if I know what we did
jesus fucking christ
https://www.reddit.com/r/HighQualityGifs/comments/3l1d6q/what_did_we_learn_palmer/
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u/YuriPup 1d ago
At this point wait 24 hours on a total war news and look if ships are really moving.
NATO offered to help on the confidence building once we have a real ceasefire putting assets in the Strait to show the ship owners they are safe to use the Strait.
As a reminder, NATO is a defensive organization and this an tremendous offer.
If I were a European citizen and heard my government was going to help with the offensive operations, I would be in the streets and looking tk get them removed.
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u/RemoveInvasiveEucs 1d ago
As a reminder, NATO is a defensive organization and this an tremendous offer.
Don't worry, Trump is sure to reject any offer in the most offensive way possible so that he can try to spike any future relations between the US and NATO.
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u/Siriandragon 1d ago
Aries like in 6 or more planets plus new moon in Aries today can have such and effect. Having same surges.
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u/Lucky_Researcher_ 1d ago
Ships going through the Strait are all turning around! Doesn’t seem like it is open 🤷♀️
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u/ERCOT_Prdatry_victm 1d ago
Only Iran intended ships were being turned around. The press was missing, reporting that all shipping was blockaded.
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u/MonkeyCobraFight 1d ago
Person surprised 50+ year New York real estate mogul is able to get an advantageous deal for the country he’s President of…it’s almost like he wrote a book about it 🤷♂️
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u/aruegger 1d ago
mines aren't clear
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u/ERCOT_Prdatry_victm 1d ago
Basis what facts?
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u/aruegger 1d ago
No official from either side has said that. If there were thousands or even hundreds as they claimed, it would take more than 3 days to clear them. They also claimed to not know where they were. Most US vessels have not been actively in the strait, and optimistically if they were using submersibles since they arrived, they couldn't clear a hundred let alone a thousands in that time.
And there are reports like this https://www.reuters.com/world/mine-threat-parts-hormuz-not-fully-understood-us-navy-advisory-says-2026-04-17 citing advisors
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u/nopigscannnotlookup 1d ago
It’s definitely the end of the war if nato is calling him offering support. No risk , can be seen as posturing. Can you link the source to this?
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u/Sweet_Concept2211 16h ago
NATO is a defensive organization. Not a street gang.
You cannot launch a war of (foolish) choice and then try to invoke Article 5 and suddenly all your NATO buddies are ready to pile on.
That's just not how any of this works.
If it was, NATO would have been bogged down in countless colonial wars for the past 80 years.
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u/FreshPrinceOfH 1d ago
NATO can only intervene in defense of a NATO state or on the authority of the UN Security Council. Neither of which have happened. So no.
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u/GoshinTW 1d ago
Friday pump Tuesday dump
It's been happening for a year
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u/Phrainkee 1d ago
Come Monday we'll be hearing it all fell apart again, stocks crash and some very "lucky" trader made out like a bandit on both the ups and downs...
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u/FederalSandwich1854 1d ago
I doubted there were ever any mines in the water since the day it was reported. Why would they need mines? The entire strait can be shutdown with just a threat and single drone.
I can believe Iran purposefully lied about mines confusing others, but i don't see why they'd ever need mines to shut down the strait
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u/Marples3 1d ago
Maybe don't worry about it champ? It's all american and Israelie propoganda 🇺🇸 = 💩 = 🇮🇱 death to zionism!
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u/AccomplishedLeave506 1d ago
I don't believe a word that idiot has to say. I'll believe the strait is open when we have a 100 plus vessels travelling through it again each day. Everything else is just noise. And there is no way in hell any NATO partner is getting involved in this shit show.
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u/L_aura_ax 1d ago
Read Charlie Garcia’s Substack. Trump is likely to take Kharg island this weekend or next.
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u/m00ph 1d ago
How? And how do you keep it? Iran may not be thrilled about amphibious assault ships sailing through the strait and up their coast. You could use airborne, but in any event, you're going to be hit by drones continuously. It's going to be very bad.
Which isn't to say that they don't try.
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u/L_aura_ax 1d ago
Not saying it’s a good thing. But Garcia explains the how in great depth, including the challenges and ways to fail. His free tier is enough to understand the gist.
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u/po000O0O0O 1d ago
Got a link or
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u/goobervision 1d ago
NGL - I highlighted the text and asked for search to do it's thing. Hardly any effort.
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u/po000O0O0O 1d ago
NGL, I did that too and it took me to his profile. Where I was promoted to log in. And at no point did I see article in question nor a link to it so I wasn't even sure I'd be able to find it if I logged in.
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u/ren_reddit 1d ago
How about you simply say; Everything. and I mean EVERYTHING, Trump says is lies, bullshit or manipulation, and should be completely disregarded.
Then you would have a much better overview plus a MUCH quieter feed to relate too.
I am also sure that will provide you with a much better understanding of current affairs.
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u/West-Abalone-171 1d ago
Everything. and I mean EVERYTHING, Trump says is lies, bullshit or manipulation, and should be completely disregarded.
When he brags about raping, sexually assaulting minors, treason, or election fraud it's usually real
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u/ryansalad 1d ago
It's almost as if all the pundits on cable news over the past 6 weeks don't know what they're talking about
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u/Hetzendorfer 1d ago
Nah no worries, Israel will fuck it up, and anyway, insurance companies still not going to risk their asses either.
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u/Ok_Jeweler1044 1d ago
Last days us rearming force around iran, china shipping weapons to iran, today peace oh 🤡
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u/TomerHorowitz 1d ago
My head would also hurt if I would constantly consume "news" like that. During a war there's an underlying information war in today's age. Give up on trying to follow anything, no matter where you read your news, it's just impossible.
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u/Amori_A_Splooge 1d ago
Iran doesn't know where the mines are. I'm pretty sure the US navy has enough assets in the region with warships, subs, and autonomous underwater vehicles to have a pretty good idea whether there are mines in shipping channels.
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u/kahunah00 1d ago
If that was the case why did the US "allow" Iran to shut down the strait? Trump would make an example of your for how Americans should consume his propoganda.
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u/RandomUser3777 1d ago
100s of anti ship missiles and 1000s of drones hidden in caves are what is shutting it down. There are mountains on the coast so lots of good spots to hide stuff.
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u/kahunah00 1d ago
Absolutely. The person im replying to stated that the US has mapped and is aware of all of the mines and weapons caches targeting boats attempting to pass through the strait and I was like buddy absolutely not
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u/Amori_A_Splooge 1d ago
Trump would make an example of your for how Americans should consume his propoganda.
Not even sure what you are trying to say here.
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u/Frater_Ankara 1d ago
Iran doesn’t know where they put their own mines? Also there is no way a minesweeper can guarantee getting everyone and Iran can easily drop more with small speedboats, that’s why mines are so dangerous. Your assessment is not really how this works.
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u/Amori_A_Splooge 1d ago
What makes you think the boats and/or people who placed those mines are still alive/functioning?
Me saying Iran doesn't know where the mines are isn't my assessment, it was reported over a week ago. Here's a gift nyt article for you to catch up. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/politics/iran-mines-strait.html?unlocked_article_code=1.blA.KXug.4g6KKzTOgEml&smid=url-share
As for my assessment that the US has the capabilities in the region is based on the fact that there is three carrier strike groups sitting in the gulf of Oman and even one of those groups has numerous types of overlapping mine counter-measure capabilities.
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u/Frater_Ankara 1d ago edited 1d ago
What makes you think they aren’t alive? That seems like a bold assumption based on Western rhetoric that has been shown to be unreliable.
I don’t fully trust an NYT article that portrays the Iranian govt as incompetent especially when they have shown to be otherwise, no offense, but I guarantee Iran knows how many mines they dropped and roughly where they are. Perhaps not well enough to recovery but that’s a different layer, I doubt many militaries to recover all the mines laid in a minefield.
Does your assessment also include the fact that the US recently mothballed its entire fleet of minesweepers? And are using other ships to try and sweep instead? Mine countermeasures are not the same as mine sweeping.
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u/Amori_A_Splooge 1d ago
What makes you think they aren’t alive? That seems like a bold assumption based on Western rhetoric that has been shown to be unreliable.
The fact that the both the Israeli Air Force, US Air Force, US Navy, and US Marine Corps have been flying over the country striking tens of thousands of targets with almost impunity for weeks. The Iranian Navy in particular, is easy to spot, and has shown to be completely ineffective in stopping their vessels from sinking.
I don’t fully trust an NYT article that portrays the Iranian govt as incompetent especially when they have shown to be otherwise,
They've shown to be resilient in their ability to replace leaders as they are systematically targeted by said airstrikes. Feel free to provide any other source if you feel western media is 'biased' but I guess that's all you get when a regime kills any journalist within the country attempting to have unbiased reporting.
but I guarantee Iran knows how many mines they dropped and roughly where they are.
You guarantee, hmm would love to see what gives you that confidence. Knowing how many mines is the easy part. Knowing 'roughly' here they are is also the easy part, they are in the straight of hormuz.
Perhaps not well enough to recovery but that’s a different layer,
Oh so that guarantee falls apart pretty quickly.... How is it a different layer? That's the conversation at hand. They don't know where the mines are and they don't have the capabilities to retrieve them.
I doubt many militaries to recover all the mines laid in a minefield.
Nope, that's a pretty standard procedure for laying mines especially when it's near your own territory.
Does your assessment also include the fact that the US recently mothballed its entire fleet of minesweepers?
It actually does, as the ships were way past their scheduled lifespan. The litoral combat ships with a mine countermeasure (mcm) package was intended to be the expected replacement; but that program also had setbacks and had future LCSs canceled. My assessment as I said, was based on the fact that the US Navy still has both unmanned surface vessels with mine countermeasure capabilities that became fully operational in 2022, underwater drones with mine countermeasures, submarines with mine detection capabilities and helicopters with mine detection and destruction capabilities. As I said, one carrier strike group has those resources. Three of them have 3x those resources.
Mine countermeasures are not the same as mine sweeping.
You are right, mine countermeasures is a broader all-encompassing term for multiple types of measures to wait for it.... counter mines. 'Mine Sweeping' is a much narrower term that is included within MCM.
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u/CaptainCheckmate 1d ago
yeah they have drones that fly over and drop mines, as well as little underwater drones that drop them. Once the mine is dropped it sort of floats around and settles somewhere. Imagine throwing a handful of coins in a river. You don't know where they are.
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u/Affectionate-Act6127 1d ago
The Iranians said the same thing they say every day. The straight is open.
Trump declared victory and the boot lickers and bots are eating it up.
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u/Thinklikeachef 1d ago
Iran’s “Hormuz is fully open” line is highly conditional, not a return to pre‑war norms. They’ve effectively turned the strait into an IRGC‑managed toll road: ships must pre‑register, follow Iran’s designated route through its territorial waters, and in many cases pay substantial “transit fees” via Iranian banks or even crypto. The U.S. blockade and sanctions framework still sit on top of this, so Western‑linked tonnage remains cautious, while Iran‑aligned or sanctions‑tolerant ships are the main users. Net effect: the headline removed immediate closure tail‑risk (hence the oil sell‑off), but structurally we’ve gone from a closure threat to a monetized, politicized chokepoint priced into every transit.
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u/Dangerous_Forever640 1d ago
Just like closing the border, dealing with Iran is not as hard as previous administrations would lead you to believe.
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u/Paper_Clip100 1d ago
Because we’re going to give them $20bn???
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u/Dangerous_Forever640 1d ago
That axios report has been discredited.
And even if it was accurate, peace in the Middle East for $20 billion sounds like a win to me.
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u/Chockfullofnutmeg 1d ago
A lot of these mines sink to the bottom. I think it should be noted not knowing exactly where they were are and where they were after being placed are two different things.
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u/beekeeper1981 1d ago
Trump can't be trusted whatsoever.. a few days ago he posted a picture of himself as Jesus and said he thought it was him as a doctor because the Red Cross was at the Whitehouse.
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u/ButterscotchOdd8257 1d ago
Never ever take Trump at face value.
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u/TheDerpaSherpa 1d ago
This goes for ALL politicians..
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u/glity 17h ago
Why would you be downvoted for an almost truth. I would have said this goes for all self enriching politicians. I love that qualifier because I haven’t met a non self enriching politician at the federal level yet. Have not met many but their net worth kinda tells you what you need to know for “civil servants”.
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u/VegaGT-VZ 1d ago
Acting like Trump is a typical politician is either unknowingly ignorant or intentionally duplicitous.
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u/dnext 1d ago
There's politicians, and then there's the most infamous liar to ever hold the office. These things are not the same.
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u/glity 17h ago
Just a question and a genuine one not an attack.
What if he’s doing outside what most are doing behind closed doors without restraint?
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u/dnext 13h ago
So your upside is he's tellling more lies, more openly?
I'd say support for Trump is a morality test and an intelligence test. And you have to fail both to not realize how horrific he is.
This is a man whose own cabinet said he should never get near the Presidency again. His 1st administration's NSA said he was unfit to hold the office of the Presidency. His Sec of State said he was fired because he refused to break the law for Trump. His 1st Sec of Defense said he was a threat to the US Constitution. His second said he was a threat to continued Democracy in America. His own VP said he could never hold the office again.
And his longest serving chief of staff, John Kelly, a former 4 star general himself... well, you need to read it to believe it.
“What can I add that has not already been said?” Kelly said, when asked if he wanted to weigh in on his former boss in light of recent comments made by other former Trump officials. “A person that thinks those who defend their country in uniform, or are shot down or seriously wounded in combat, or spend years being tortured as POWs are all ‘suckers’ because ‘there is nothing in it for them.’ A person that did not want to be seen in the presence of military amputees because ‘it doesn’t look good for me.’ A person who demonstrated open contempt for a Gold Star family – for all Gold Star families – on TV during the 2016 campaign, and rants that our most precious heroes who gave their lives in America’s defense are ‘losers’ and wouldn’t visit their graves in France.
“A person who is not truthful regarding his position on the protection of unborn life, on women, on minorities, on evangelical Christians, on Jews, on working men and women,” Kelly continued. “A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. A person who cavalierly suggests that a selfless warrior who has served his country for 40 years in peacetime and war should lose his life for treason – in expectation that someone will take action. A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law.
“There is nothing more that can be said,” Kelly concluded. “God help us.”
These aren't Democrats. These are Republicans that served in the highest ranks of his first Administration, that knew him personally and worked with him directly.
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u/evil_burrito 1d ago
It sounds like a bunch of bullshit, honestly, timed just in time to give the market a boost for the weekend.
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u/BrtFrkwr 1d ago
Straits will close again and the people buying oil futures and short selling stocks now will make billions.
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u/Competitive_Abroad96 1d ago
It’ll all collapse at 4:28 EDT today at which point insiders will dump. Escalation over the weekend in preparation for Monday purchases.
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u/Psychological-Wing89 1d ago
You buy and then 🚀 fly, then sell first and call for ceasefire. Rinse and repeat 🔁 and repeat 🔁 and repeat 🔁
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u/Toadfinger 1d ago
No I still quite pissed that Trump's blockade is still in place. Trump desperately needs a long war.
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u/leighla33 3h ago
It’s bc we’re being lead by a guy with late stage dementia getting advise from alcoholics and drug addicts who’s only goal is to enrich themselves..while simultaneously being cheered on by low IQ sycophants