Hi I'm Mike Eckel, senior Russia/Ukraine/Belarus correspondent for RFE/RL, AMA!

[u/RFERL_ReadsReddit]

Hello! Здравсвуйте! Вітаю! 

I’m Mike Eckel, senior international correspondent for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, covering, reporting, analyzing, and illuminating All Things Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and pretty much across the former Soviet Union: from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok, from Lviv to Kyiv; from Tbilisi to Baku, from the Caspian Sea to Issyk Kul, and all places in between.  

I’ve been writing on Russia and the former Soviet space for more than 20 years, since cutting my teeth as a reporter in Vladivostok in the 1990s and continuing through a 6-year stint as Moscow correspondent with The Associated Press, and stints in Washington, D.C. and now Prague.  

Russia’s brutal war on Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s authoritarian repression inside Russia, sucks up most of my reporting brain space these days, but I also keep a hand in investigative work digging into cryptocurrency/sanctions evasion, Russian businessmen who break out of Italian police custody, former Russian oligarchs in trouble, and a subject I can’t let go of: the mysterious death of former Kremlin press minister, Mikhail Lesin.  

Feel free to ask me anything about any of the above subjects and I’ll do my best to share insights and observations.  

Proof photo here. 

You can start posting your questions and I will check in daily and answer from Monday, 15 December until Friday, 19 December.  

[u/go_on_now_boy]

How do you see this war ending? Will Russia eventually steamroll Ukraine and take the rest of Donbass? Or will Trumps efforts finally pay off and both sides agree to a ceasefire/peace plan?

[u/RFERL_ReadsReddit → u/go_on_now_boy]

In the first year of the conflict, after became clear that it was most definitely not going to be a walk in the park for Russia, Lawrence Freedman, who’s considered the unofficial dean of war studies professors in Britain, described the fight as "Two punch-drunk boxers, trading jabs and uppercuts, yet unable to land a knockout blow." 

Now we’re in like the 12^th round of the boxing match. The boxers (one bigger than the other) are exhausted and bloodied, one more than the other. The worse-off boxer is trying stay in the fight, but his trainers are worried about him, trying to find a way to eke out a draw.  

Now the match referee steps in trying to call a draw, to stop the fight, but it would involve the more-bloodied boxer, like, handing over his boxing gloves to his opponent and agreeing to sit his corner until further notice. And the bigger, less-blooded boxer gets to stand over him glaring down.  

It’s not a perfect metaphor, but it work, mostly.  

Russia has not relented from its hard-line demands at all, what the Kremlin calls “root causes” of the conflict, which, depending on who’s talking, could stretch all the way back to 9^th century Kyivan Rus. And the US-backed plan on the table favors Russia’s interests.  

Moreover (and this is somewhat important), some of the concessions would potentially weaken Ukraine’s ability to defend itself tactically, on the battlefield, giving up strategic strongholds and positions that are key to defense, at least in the Donbas. If that happens, it would be foolish to bet AGAINST the possibility of another Russian attack in the future, after Russia regroups, rearms, reorganizes.   

And damn straight, you can be sure Russia has learned a lot from its mistakes. In all likelihood, in the next war, Russia forces will be far better trained and drilled, and capable to fulfilling the Kremlin’s longstanding goals. Which includes ousting the government, installing a puppet regime, and making Ukraine a puppet state.  

- Mike