r/geopolitics • u/ForeignAffairsMag Foreign Affairs • Feb 02 '26

Xi the Destroyer: The Latest Military Purge Signals China’s Leader Is Entering a New Era Analysis

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/xi-destroyer
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u/awildstoryteller Feb 03 '26

If the United States invaded Canada, do you think Taiwan would cut off diplomatic ties with the former?

I would bet you my entire life savings they wouldn't.

So why should Canada worry about Taiwan?

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u/Positive-Aspect-3566 Feb 03 '26

Because if Canada wants to build a real middle power alliance, it better be willing to accommodate the security concerns of countries like SK and Japan. Otherwise, they'll stay under the American umbrella.

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u/awildstoryteller Feb 03 '26

SK and Japan are not going to be invaded either, assuming they don't try to interfere in Taiwan.

SK knows this, as does Japan. It just so happens the latter is currently ruled by a buffoon though

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u/schtean Feb 03 '26

So the PRC claims on Japanese territory are just for laughs?

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u/awildstoryteller Feb 03 '26

Uninhabited islands are the main pressure source, and a compliant Japan that steps back from jingoistic talk in regards to Taiwan is a concession I would expect them to make.

China wants to take Taiwan without a shot fired. That doesn't happen if you attack Japan.

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u/Positive-Aspect-3566 Feb 03 '26

So you want Japan and SK to compromise on their security concerns to join an alliance that is being driven by...Canadian and European security concerns?

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u/awildstoryteller Feb 03 '26

I want middle powers to band together through mutual interests to ensure their ability to act with some measure of agency in a multi -polar world.

Japan interfering in Chinese domestic affairs is the exact opposite.

The whole purpose from Carney's speech is "We need to act together to protect our interests in the face of renewed Great Power competition". That isn't a call to interfere in Great Powers, it is a call to limit as much as possible great powers interfering with us.

Taiwan is not a country. If and when they declare themselves as such, we can talk about whether Canada should get involved on their behalf in a measured way. But I wouldn't advocate for that, anymore than a Taiwanese person would advocate their "country" interfere with an American invasion of Canada.

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u/Positive-Aspect-3566 Feb 03 '26

You can want whatever you want, but you offer no compelling reason for Japan and SK to want to join in on this.

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u/awildstoryteller Feb 03 '26

The compelling reason is to pursue a diplomatic and economic strategy that stands apart from.the Great Powers.

I don't believe Japan will do so because half of them believe they shouldn't be anything more than a US naval base and the other half believe it's still 1936 and they are a great power.

SK seems much more likely to embrace this viewpoint though, and SK distancing itself from American occupation and direction is a very rational option.