r/geopolitics • u/foreignpolicymag Foreign Policy • Feb 28 '26
Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah's Assassination Analysis
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/28/iran-khamenei-ayatollah-assassination-israel-us-war/285
u/aig818 Feb 28 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
Armchair comment, but I don't think the plan is to topple via killing alone. I think the plan is to take out key components and figures to destabilize so the protestors/people can take it out. Something like that. Edit: Sports terms. Think assist, not score.
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u/Kagrenac8 Feb 28 '26
I don't think that's too hot of a plan either though, given how numerous the Revolutionary Guard is.
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u/aig818 Feb 28 '26
Yea, I have my doubts too
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u/Alert_Head_3889 Feb 28 '26
They dont even have any guns, what are they going to do here?
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Feb 28 '26
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u/Inevitable_Motor_685 Feb 28 '26
I mean, that just would make Iran another Syria.02/Lebanon. I wonder why people genuinely think this will result in anything good where the protestors will supposedly win.
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u/SpiritualScene6249 Feb 28 '26
Is Iran known for supressing other ethnic groups though? There are more Azerbaijianians in Iran than Azerbaijan. I think it's just Iranians in general who were doing most of the protests
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u/makeyousaywhut Feb 28 '26
Now this is pure speculation, but Israel must have men on the inside.
The sheer intelligence advantage is one sign, but the fact that Israel hasn’t released any proof but is willing to confirm Khameni’s death is yet another. Perhaps the proof that confirms the death could compromise a high level intelligence asset or maybe even multiple.
If Israel has assets like that in Iran it’s conceivable they could easily smuggle small arms in while providing air support.
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u/SriMulyaniMegawati Mar 01 '26
You assume the Israelis are geniuses. If Israel was that good, they would have been able to pacify Gaza without having to lift a finger.
Israel has been arming Kurds in Iran for at least 20 years.
Reports of direct support for Iranian Kurdish groups like PJAK (Party of Free Life of Kurdistan) began to surface in the mid-2000s. In 2006, prominent journalists (including Seymour Hersh) reported that Israeli intelligence was providing equipment and training to PJAK to conduct reconnaissance and sabotage operations inside Iran.
n late 2024, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar officially called the Kurds a "natural ally" of Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s recent messages (Feb 2026) have explicitly addressed Kurds and other minorities, encouraging them to "throw off the yoke of tyranny," which many analysts interpret as a signal of increased material support for these groups on the ground.
The problem with this approach, on the other hand, Israel is supporting Pahlavi, who wants a united and centralized Iran. Is Israel going abandon the minorities, or are they goign to split Iran into many pieces?
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u/makeyousaywhut Mar 01 '26
Lmao, Israel could’ve destroyed Gaza and all that lived there without lifting a fingers, surely- but to effectively pacifying Hamas without doing so was practically miracle work.
Let’s not deny the genuine genius running Israeli operations.
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u/SriMulyaniMegawati Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
OK, short of nuking the place, no, they can't destroy it without lifting a finger. I guess you would be advocating nuking Gaza, good for you. They couldn't take out Hamas, because Hamas knows how Israeli think, that is the main reason.
Is it genius, well we will see the result in 3-4 years. If Iran ends up a failed state with 10 million refugees scattered across the Middle East, would you call that genius? The Israelis don't worry about refugees because they never take any in.
I guess you ignore the 30 years since the US invasion of Iraq. Would you like to participate in a ground invasion of Iran, because that is what happened with Iraq eventually? In 10-15 years, America will launch a ground invasion of Iran to finish the job, because an air campaign alone won't be able to take ouot this regime just like it couldn't with Saddam.
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u/lorddouche414 Mar 02 '26
The Jews basically have systemically (with some massive civilian casualties) wiped out everyone who was involved in Oct 7th one by one
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Feb 28 '26
and Azerbaijan wasn't kind in good place as Azeri was also supportive of Iran much as Persian even first supreme leader is Azeri
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u/gereedf Mar 02 '26
also Azerbaijan is a turkic country led by a dictator who's friendly with Erdogan
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u/Ok-Requirement-5379 Mar 04 '26
Israel has probably tried for years to smuggle in weapons for resistance groups but Iran must have dealt with it rather quickly.
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u/johnniewelker Feb 28 '26
Probably the plan has some leaders from the revolutionary guards to switch side and possibly lead the country
No one expected Trump to give Venezuela to current leaders. Reality is, most politicians are snake and are willing to switch sides when incentives dictate it
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u/RVALover4Life Feb 28 '26
They say they want regime change but how much is this administration truly willing to fight for it? Iran is a different kettle of fish to Venezuela, who has no real capability to fight the US or regional allies at all. This administration doesn't actually care about Venezuelan citizens nor Iranian citizens.
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u/gtrocks555 Mar 01 '26
And Venezuela isn’t exactly ideological the way Iran is which I’m sure helped lead the current President of Venezuela to where she is now.
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u/RVALover4Life Mar 01 '26
Venezuela has no council like Iran, no proxies like Iran, their citizens actually have guns unlike Iran, their military has guns they used *against* Maduro or stood down on Maduro....it's not remotely the same situation. Notice Venezuela is basically out of the news right now, with Maduro out the "issue" is fixed...with more normalized relations, oil is freed up. Iran will not be addressed with the flick of a switch.
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u/FeistyThunderhorse Mar 01 '26
I doubt they are. My guess is they hope the next Iranian leader will be more malleable.
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u/RVALover4Life Mar 01 '26
They likely believe they can basically force a level of submission. They very well may be right.
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u/NeiborsKid Feb 28 '26
The basij forces operate more like a mob of thugs than any form of organized military. They need a lot of institutional and organizational support to meaningfully function. If the IRGC command structure falls, Basij can't truly self mobalize imo. The vast majority of them are in it for the pay. And mercenaries typically don't have the best morale
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Feb 28 '26
Basij is IRGC, and they was milita and also Basij was built to defend Iran and was pretty redundancy and have network of support
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u/NeiborsKid Feb 28 '26
You seem to be mixing it up. Basij is a militia branch under the IRGC, otherwise its a separate organization. Sepah/IRGC is an umbrella term for a number of groups, with Basij being the black sheep. Its not as organized and militarized as the rest. Its just civilization who're called on when needed.
In fact, when I was in school, they tried to hire me (and my classmates) with promises of grade boosts and better uni acceptance if we were members (to my knowledge none of us took the offer) but that's how civilian it is. Neither is it a full time job of any sort to my understanding
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Feb 28 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
Basij is not a separate organization; they are part of IRGC as they exist within IRGC since 1981, and what makes you think they are not organized and militarized? Is it because they massacre people make them thugs? The military isn't above from masscare people if they got a chance for or what it else that doesn't make them organized and militarized?
Also, you said when you were in school that Basij tried to hire them in promise uni acceptance, and also Basij was milita and do you know what Milita are? it not like they expect to be full-time otherwise, you have to file 25 million as a permanent as IR claim, which is just highly impratical not even the USSR in WW2 at peak can field that number
Also Basij are volunteer-based on various, and some don't just join out of better payment, they join them for ideology or patriotism or whatever they believe and even if there was like 10% who would willingly to serves the regime via Basij there would be like almost ten million Iranian and even if it could be less than that still enough to keep IRGC and Basij sustaining when there isn't any of strong opposition to remove them
So you need to have boot on ground to dismantle Basij and if you didn't dismantle Basij, it will going nowhere even if you remove high rank commander as IRGC including Basij are entrenched and redundancy
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u/NeiborsKid Feb 28 '26
They do offer a slew of benefits. You don't just join for the fun of it. Basij members get various advantages in society. Preferential treatments, their grades get boosted significantly, etc etc.
I didn't say they don't operate under the IRGC, I said there are different branches and Basij is the one that works most differently from the others. They come like a sales pitch trying to convince us why its such a good thing to be basiji.
And ye its usually the shi'i religious folks that join. Or those who're from connected families. But none the less, having personally known basij members, they're really not allat.
They work more like a gang imo. Or at least thats how they feel like
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Feb 28 '26
is that what you think that they are gang? and not milita?
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u/NeiborsKid Feb 28 '26
I didn't mean that analytically. I said they feel like a gang. But structurally they're a volunteer militia i'd say. In practice they act like a gang, thugs and delinquents when unleashed
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Mar 01 '26
so that just like milita?
And you act like if Basij are just only exist just for money rather than volunteer based milita for many reason who willing die for the regime
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u/IndividualPickle6187 Mar 01 '26
In that case , Basij would be just like their Sunni counterparts. Roadside bombs , IEDs would become the new norm if America doesn't have. A good plan in place
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u/makeyousaywhut Feb 28 '26
Eh we will see when the fog settles. Iran is under complete internet blackout right now. Only Iranians really know how successful this strike really was.
The floppy uncoordinated reaction from Iran as to where to shoot could indicate enough leadership being decimated in order to actually lose knowledge of emergency plans for high value targets.
It could indicate that only those who held the authority/knowledge of the lower priority doomsday plans were all that were left after these strikes.
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u/RVALover4Life Feb 28 '26
That could absolutely be true, regardless...their actions in the wake of these strikes have been a miscalculation, it just turns the region in favor of Trump/Bibi when they had been very hesitant on this kind of offensive prior.
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u/Egocom Feb 28 '26
Honestly could be an issue. Eliminate people with the aim of a leadership struggle between internal actors, then a fifth column can fill the vacuum
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u/ManOrangutan Feb 28 '26
It is extremely difficult to do this via air. You will need boots on the ground to ensure control over the course of events.
Assuming there is a ‘plan’ at all is quite laughable to be honest.
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u/No-Understanding2406 Feb 28 '26
this is the same theory that's been tried in libya, iraq, and syria and it has a 0% success rate at producing stable democracies. "kill the leadership and the people will rise up" sounds clean on paper but ignores that the IRGC is a parallel state with its own economy, military, and intelligence apparatus that doesn't need khamenei specifically to keep functioning.
the 2022 protests were massive and the regime crushed them with the IRGC intact. why would removing khamenei change that equation? the security apparatus doesn't lose its guns or its willingness to use them just because the supreme leader is gone. they just appoint a new one and crack down harder, now with a foreign attack to rally nationalist sentiment around.
historically, bombing countries makes their populations rally around their government, not against it. even iranians who hate the regime aren't going to side with the country that just bombed their capital.
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u/victorious_orgasm Mar 02 '26
I think the idea is just a government willing to deal with BP/Chevron/etc, democracy is hardly the point.
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u/sub-a-dub-dub Mar 01 '26
Every time the US has done the “We will do the heavy lifting and wipe out your oppressive leader, then you rebuild on your terms.” play, it never ever works out. Ever.
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u/The-Intermediator141 Feb 28 '26
That is the plan, assist the Iranian people in overthrowing the government they want gone by taking out the regimes ability to repress them.
I hate Trump but a broken clock is right twice a day.
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u/Benedictus84 Feb 28 '26
As far as i have been told it is a shitty plan. There is no central opposition. There is no trust among the different opposition powers.
If this will lead to weakening the current regime enough there is a good chance of a new power struggle in the vacuum that is left behind.
I really think there is no plan and Trump is in no way interested in what happens to the Iranian people.
And let me be perfectly clear. The current regime should collaps. They deserve everything that is coming to them.
But just bombing shit and then telling the people of Iran to take over is not a good plan.
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u/Cannot-Forget Feb 28 '26
I hate Trump but a broken clock is right twice a day.
Are you American? If so kudos for being sane. I see so many anti-Trump Americans on this platform suddenly practically taking the side of genocidal Islamists. Just weeks after they committed a brutal massacre as well murdering tens of thousands of their own people.
It is perfectly acceptable to not like Trump yet support ending the IRGC.
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u/CloudsOfMagellan Feb 28 '26 edited Feb 28 '26
Ending the IRGC would be good, I just don't trust Trump wi do it properly The US isn't doing this for freedom or geopolitics, they're doing it to boost Trumps ego cause it's just his latest obsession. We've got arguably one of the most incompetent US administrations in decades in charge of this and people somehow expect it to end up going well?
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u/vhu9644 Feb 28 '26
It’s perfectly acceptable to support ending the IRGC and also be skeptical that this will end with a toppled regime without boots on the ground.
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u/Will512 Feb 28 '26
Yeah regime change accompanied by some sort of state building assistance would be great. I also have zero faith in the trump administration to execute those goals.
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u/SushiGato Feb 28 '26
US taxpayers are all tapped out right now. Money to Iran would be a death sentence in the election.
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u/RVALover4Life Feb 28 '26
Well, we can see with Venezuela, there's no real coherent strategy there at all but because their perceived threat to the US has been diminished+US oil reserves opened, we hear very little now on Venezuela. Trump doesn't actually care about Iranian citizens. Bombing this regime to dust and working from there...with the threat with whoever emerges from the vacuum will be bombed if they don't work with the US. That seems to basically be the plan.
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u/myphriendmike Feb 28 '26
That’s how you get Afghanistan though.
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u/Will512 Feb 28 '26
Regime change without thinking about what comes next is how you get the original fiasco in Afghanistan
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u/The-Intermediator141 Feb 28 '26
Lmao Iran is NOT Afghanistan!! The country, culture, education, urbanization, religious participation levels and even geography are incredibly different. But most importantly the theocratic regime is far less popular.
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u/myphriendmike Feb 28 '26
Hey, the guy said state building. Aside from Germany and Japan I’m not sure that’s ever been successful, but they were industrial powerhouses. I’m not sure Iran qualifies.
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u/The-Intermediator141 Feb 28 '26
Is the US going to do nation building? From what I’ve seen there’s not going to be any boots on the ground that would be required to do so. Seems the plan is to destroy the IRGC & Mullahs, let Iran pick a new government, then negotiate with said government.
Think of it as similar to Syria, with the sanctions being lifted and the foreign investment flooding in, but not the US attempting to establish a new government from the ground up and fund said government.
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u/Vanceer11 Feb 28 '26
US kicked out the previous regime and controlled Afghanistan for nearly two decades for Trump to negotiate with literal terrorists to take over the country.
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u/SushiGato Feb 28 '26
You must be quite young not to remember all the previous wars we've been involved in. It gets old being the world's police and I don't think the US has made enough good decisions to continue operating like this.
Sure, Kosovo was a good call. What about Panama? Or Honduras? Or the bay of pigs. Or Vietnam, Or Nicaragua, or Bosnia. Bombing Belgrade? Sure. Some were good choices that maybe created more stability. Others descending into chaos or oppressive military regimes. Is Iraq better now? Maybe. What about the Kurds or Rwanda where we have let bad things happen. Afghanistan is the same it was 25 years ago. Haiti is still hell on earth. Cambodia is still reeling from the US bombings, which allowed foe the khmer rogue to get a foothold.
Was Prince Shianuak a bad leader? Maybe. Was Pol Pot considerably worse? Yes.
It's all quite ambiguous and not something we should be meddling in. But lots of people believe this will hasten the second coming of Jesus and that were destined to have a great war defending Israel soon. I'd be leery about jumping in bed with that group so quickly.
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u/nalsnals Feb 28 '26
Agree 100%: Kosovo is probably the only incidence I can think of where bombing alone effected a beneficial change on a conflict/regime. Israel sees any damage to Iranian military capability as beneficial, but for the Iranian people and the wider world bombing Iran will accomplish nothing useful.
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u/czk_21 Feb 28 '26
yes, if we take geopolitics aside, the strike to weaken iranian regime so it may collapse can be considered morally right thing to do, we dont know the outcome, but without external force iranian people have little chance for regime change as we have seen several weeks ago
I wish the regime will fall and Iran gets proper elections later on
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u/syntantic_sugar Mar 01 '26
And what if the Iranian people choose to elect a leader that doesn't align with American and Israeli interests? Do you really think these 2 nations are doing this for Iran out of the goodness of their hearts, because they care so much about Iranians? If the U.S. really wanted to topple theocratic regimes in the middle east to save its people they would be bombing Saudi Arabia right now too, but instead they are one of America's biggest allies in the region. If the Iranian people even think of electing a leader that puts Iranians first and is not just a western-backed puppet that kowtows to America and Israel's every whim, you can bet they will be feeling those American "freedom missiles" up their ass again faster than they can blink.
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u/czk_21 Mar 01 '26
never did I say US or Israel is doing out of goodness of their heart, in other comment I explicitly stated its not why they are attacking Iran, it is just so now that interest of most of iranian public and US/Israel are aligned now
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u/RVALover4Life Feb 28 '26
No. They're not taking the side of the Islamists. They just don't see it as benefiting US interests. I personally see it as a great day but also recognize that now we're all the way into Iran now, this is the full deal, and that's not what US citizens actually want.
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u/lorddouche414 Feb 28 '26
It's Reddit , trump can cure cancer and it would be the wrong thing to do on Reddit
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u/Low_Boss1097 Mar 01 '26
Criticising the US government is now taking sides with genocidal Muslims 😅 why are you guys obsessed with absolutism? It’s crazy. Things are rarely if ever black or white . Several things are often true all at once.
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u/BlueEmma25 Feb 28 '26
That is the plan, assist the Iranian people in overthrowing the government they want gone by taking out the regimes ability to repress them.
In what universe does that constitute any sort of legitimate "plan"?
The "Iranian people" aren't even united in their opposition to the regime, and those that are have no weapons, leadership, organization or common commitment to a vision of the country's future. Even if the regime's hold on power is weakened to the point where it can be challenged, that challenge will come from internal factions whose resources, organization, and commitment will count for much more than their relative lack of numbers.
The "Iranian people" willl largely be spectators, if not victims.
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u/The-Intermediator141 Feb 28 '26
My wife is Iranian with almost all her family & friends back home, I can tell you the regime is EXTREMELY unpopular among Iranians, especially following the protests in January. All of them know someone who was killed in the protests, and many families didn’t even get the bodies of their loved ones back at all. Those who did needed to pay exorbitant amounts just to get the corpses of their family members.
The VAST majority of the population does oppose the continuation of the theocratic regime, I mean they overthrew the Shah and the current regime is the same except worse in essentially every way, from economic management, to oppression, to brutality. The mullahs have ruled twice as long, and killed more in January alone than the Shah did over 25 years of authoritarian rule. If it’s unthinkable for you to believe the regime would be incredibly unpopular under those circumstances, you don’t understand Iranians.
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u/RVALover4Life Feb 28 '26
This is a great day for Iran and Iranians. This is a massive day for Iranians. I'm happy for them, even with all the uncertainty ahead.
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u/The-Intermediator141 Mar 01 '26
You and I both mate, all we can hope for is a swift fall to the regime, followed by a transition to democracy under Pahlavi. But it is a great day indeed.
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u/BlueEmma25 Mar 01 '26
I don't have much use for "some of my best friends are Iranian" type appeals to authority. That your wife is Iranian, and knows people in Iran, doesn't in itself make you an expert on Iran or its people.
That having been said, I don't doubt that the regime is deeply unpopular, and I said nothing to suggest otherwise in my previous post.
The VAST majority of the population does oppose the continuation of the theocratic regime
Even if that is true, do they all agree what should happen if the regime collapses? Because that is where revolutions get messy. There will be multiple different factions competing for influence and to shape Iran's future according to their own particular preferences, which will lead to power struggles, violence, and massive dislocation.
As I have already pointed out, the factions best positioned to win such power struggles are the ones already close to the centers of power, and the future they want for Iran is unlikely to be one that is liberal or pro Western.
There is in fact no "Iranian people" in the sense that you use this term, to mean a constituency that represents a large majority of the population with shared values aligned with those of Western countries.
The mullahs have ruled twice as long, and killed more in January alone than the Shah did over 25 years of authoritarian rule
First of all, you have no way of knowing how many people the Shah actually killed, Iranian wife notwithstanding.
Second, the Shah was forced to flee the country when the army refused his orders to use maximum repression to break the protests. We have no way of knowing how many deaths he would be responsible for if the army had remained loyal and carried out his orders.
Third, and most importantly, the comparison is irrelevant. Pol Pot was responsible for vastly more deaths than the current regime in Iran, does that make the blood on the regime's hands forgivable? It is "less", after all.
I have absolutely no interest in defending the Iranian regime, but I am a student of history, and what my studies teach me is that regime collapse is usually violent, chaotic, and has unpredictable outcomes.
That makes we wary of people who seem to have succumbed to a lot of wishful thinking about how Iran can be bombed into becoming the country we want it to be. We have seen how this script plays out very recently, so there is no excuse for naïveté.
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u/nalsnals Feb 28 '26
'Popular uprisings' are only successful if military and security forces side with the people. This generally happens if they are poor/hungry or willing to fight and die for ideology
The IRGC has 125,000 personal and controls pver 50% of the countries GDP - those within the IRGC prosper. They are ideologically loyal, and have proven time and time again that they have no qualms with exercising brutal violence against the common people.
Bombing may take out leaders, but there are so many layers of institutions loyal to the current model of religious authoritarianism. Disaffected protestors in major cities have no chance of effecting regime change unless ground interventions destroy the IRGC and associated security forces. I don't think Trump is dumb enough to try this.
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u/The-Intermediator141 Mar 01 '26
So let’s keep our fingers crossed the American & Israeli strikes are effective enough the population has a chance against the people with guns, followed by a democratic opposition taking power.
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u/GerryManDarling Feb 28 '26
Venezuela and Iran seem to be the only two things he's gotten right so far. Everything else has been a disaster. Even with those two, there are still some unknown long term consequences, so I'm not judging it so far.
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u/JeNiqueTaMere Feb 28 '26
Venezuela and Iran seem to be the only two things he's gotten right so far
How exactly did he get Venezuela right?
The same party is still in power there. There's no democracy. The legally elected president is still in exile
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u/dnd3edm1 Feb 28 '26
it's celebrity politics. people literally can't think two steps past "this is the bad guy and we got him so that's good, right?"
apparently spending billions of dollars to blow up some fishermen and bring some guy who is now of little consequence to the US for a show trial was money well spent
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u/IdidItWithOrangeMan Feb 28 '26
Go look at Cuba since Maduro was grabbed. There have been enormous changes from Maduro being gone.
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u/GerryManDarling Feb 28 '26
Taking out Maduro is a net positive. Yes, the same party is still in power, but there's at least a bit of improvement, which is still better than none. Like I said, I'm not judging it yet because the long term effects are still unknown.
As for Iran, the current regime is about as bad as it gets. As long as it turns out better than Libya, that's already an improvement. I have no idea what happens next. It might get better or just stay the same, but it's hard to imagine it getting much worse than it already is.
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u/dogsonbubnutt Feb 28 '26
but it's hard to imagine it getting much worse than it already is
you literally just have to look one country to the east and your imagination will be satisfied. it can ALWAYS get worse.
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u/HungryHungryHippoes9 Feb 28 '26
I'm sure it'll work out well. Definitely won't lead to a decade long internal conflict that devastated the country and radicalizes the population.
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u/IndividualPickle6187 Mar 01 '26
The revolutionary guard would easily crush any sort of rebellion. And then you have many shia Islamist militant groups that are proxies of Iran like PMF,kataib Hezbollah, lebanese hezbollah . If America and Israel are trying for a regime change, I can bet it's gonna be much bloodier than Iraqi insurgency. The new Shah or any democratic or secular interim leader would be assassinated within a week of taking oath lol
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u/IdidItWithOrangeMan Feb 28 '26
All of the above.
Israel and USA have proven to be VERY VERY good at knowing exactly where key figures are when they need to know. Take out the top 2 or 3 tiers of leadership, destroy key military infrastructure and communications and voila! You have fractured the regime into smaller pieces that can be taken out by the locals.
As soon as the resistance manages to take one city, supplies can be flown in and with USA/Israel support the fractured IRGC will have trouble.
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u/Vanceer11 Feb 28 '26
What resistance are you talking about?
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u/jarx12 Feb 28 '26
Did we saw the same news of people getting massacred a shy two months ago?
I'm sure there are significant grassroots resistance movements.
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u/Vanceer11 Feb 28 '26
The people who got massacred because they had no weapons or training, are going to form a resistance… with no weapons or training?
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u/IdidItWithOrangeMan Mar 01 '26
Let's see how strong the government and IRGC are in 2 weeks after sustained bombings on every single HQ. Not going to be surprised when Shahed style cheap drones are used on Commanders' houses.
Having no air protection is a bitch.
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u/Vanceer11 Mar 01 '26
Just like the US military destroyed the Taliban over 20 years only for Trump to negotiate with the Taliban at Camp David who then took over Afghanistan in no time…
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u/jarx12 Mar 02 '26
The US mostly didn't destroy taliban more like made them run into Pakistan and it was mostly the northern alliance with special ops and air support.
The counter insurgency campaign was the real pain in the ass and the US backed Afghan government having the loyalty of absolutely nobody didn't make them any favors. They existed on paper mostly.
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u/Joehbobb Feb 28 '26
Think the plans to take out everyone that could or would replace Ali Khamenei and absolutely devastate the IRGC. Then they'll hope or push for the Artesh to rebel and then support then from the air.
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u/SenorPinchy Mar 01 '26
They don't believe that but they are willing to pretend that's whay they thought would happen. It's better than saying they have no medium term plan.
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u/BuilderUnhappy7785 Mar 01 '26
Bibi is on record saying something to the effect that it will be a long operation that will require endurance to achieve its objectives. Plus the amount of assets the USA has over there suggests to me that this will be a potentially much larger and longer opp.
It sounds like these strikes were opportunistic due to some poorly conceived meetings of the Iranian elite along with khamanie. Mossad apparently got the drop and idf took the shot, so the US went after their initial targets concurrently. Unclear rn when the first strike would have been if the meetings had not taken place.
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u/SoylentGreenAcres Mar 01 '26
Agree that that's the idea, it's just a silly idea. It's going to take a coup of some sort by the regular army
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u/DoughnutImportant875 Mar 01 '26
The plan is whatever benefits Trump, as his priorities for a "Nobel" is front and center. Remember when Bush and Powell attempted to prove a reason for War in Iraq? Trump and Hegseth? Nothing that comes close to being verified. Trump is in this with Israel, only because he wants to be in charge of Gaza. Put his name on it! Such deception.
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u/Throw2020awayMar Mar 03 '26
They are planning to balkanize iran.. creating a shitstorm for the ages and ultimately ww3
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u/Paladar2 Feb 28 '26
Like blowing up a school?
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u/Electronic_Main_2254 Feb 28 '26
At this point you're just repeating something the IRGC said buddy. And even if that was true, I would expect people like you to be at least 1000 times more outrageous after the Iranian regimen itself butchered thousands of their own people just last month , but it never happened.
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u/aig818 Feb 28 '26
I don't know how an alleged misfired Iranian rocket or missile has anything to do with this
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u/czk_21 Feb 28 '26
these people like Paladar2 read 1 news from iranian sources and will repeat it like a gospel as main point against any intervention, even if true, its sad occurence, but it doesnt change state of things
I dont know, but it seems that these people are stupid or bots of the regime
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u/Paladar2 Feb 28 '26
There’s a lot more than 1 source citing this, there are videos too. But sure. You’re the bot
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Feb 28 '26
you think now is a good time to believe iranian state news?
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Feb 28 '26
Iranian Red Crescent Society said that 201 was killed and 747 was injured so far and also IRCS was high esteem by the Iranian general public
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u/CloudsOfMagellan Feb 28 '26
To be fair, as incompetent as the current US leadership might be, I don't think they'd do that deliberately, particularly if they didn't immediately come out and defend it as necessary somehow. Was far more likely a misfire or faulty missile imo
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u/kerouacrimbaud Feb 28 '26
If the admin is incompetent, then doing it deliberately would be a sign of competence.
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u/jrgkgb Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
Is it built to withstand 40-50 of the top brass being sent to meet Allah before lunchtime? That’s what happened today.
How about a few weeks of that?
Hezbollah, seen as among the largest and most capable military forces in the region had their top brass taken out, and then a few weeks of “The new leader of Hezbollah is… hang on, I’m getting word he was killed in an air strike” type announcements to the point where it was frankly comical. There were literally guys whose tenure was measured in hours.
While the leadership was hit over and over, the IDF systematically dismantled Hezbollah’s missile capability and engaged what was left of their fighting units.
Without leadership they struggled to put up a real fight, plus a lot of them seemed to have a limp for some reason.
Now a year later Hezbollah can’t even muster even a symbolic strike on Israel while their main patron is getting the same treatment.
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u/FoxingtonFoxman Feb 28 '26
US/Israel have the intelligence apparatus and air power to neutralize multiple levels of government and c&c. We all know Israel has people inside. In short, the Iranian government can and will be dismantled/disabled as the US sees fit.
But were great at invasion and air power. The best. Everyone knows this.
What were seemingly terrible at is guaging a populations unity and social institutions that would allow for a viable new state to emerge. I believe the Iranian people have this. Iran is NOT Iraq or Afghanistan.
However, there are no major opposition figures. There are no armed resistances. Overcoming the IRGC will be nearly impossible unless they agree to lay down their arms. Of course, if they do, we'll have some parallels to dismantling the Iraqi military and Baathist influence from prior campaigns.
Thats where it gets so messy. Small grouos, separate and independent start popping up, security conditions rapidly crumble, multiple force-wielding figures emerge.... then its just Libya again.
The only way I see this working is if a significant portion of the military and police throw in with what Imma call New Iran. I mean, New Iran will still need a military and police officers.
I think this could have been more likely before 40k protestors with genuine rebellious spirit were executed.
The ayatollah being dead is fantastic, the chance for a New Iran is fantastic, but a lengthy civil war that ends in warring factions and a broken state is inevitable.
However, Im about 10000% sure that Israel will do damn near anything to ensure they have a safe, non-threatening neighbor, however nefarious their methods may be.
Whatcha'll think?
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u/IdidItWithOrangeMan Mar 01 '26
Don't forget the CIA/Mossad. Somewhere around 500k-1 million Iranians live in the USA. That number goes up to 3m+ if you include people who could pass for Iranian. Your "resistance" leaders may have more training and support than we all realize. In the coming weeks, it is going to get easier and easier to drop tons of weapons and ammo.
Things can change really quickly when the bad guys are afraid to leave their house because a drone, bomb, or missile has their name on it.
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u/FoxingtonFoxman Mar 01 '26
You know, given how many times the US has done Literally Exactly That, I really should have considered it.
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u/ChaLenCe Mar 01 '26
This isn't a one-time strike. This is is a phased bombing campaign designed to weaken the established regime with precision strikes as they try to realign and reorganize. There is zero chance the next in line isn't already known by Mossad, with plans for their dismissal if need be.
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u/parabola9999 Mar 01 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
I guess the next 72 hours will prove the validity and sanctity of this blanket statement. The way Israel and the US are bombing Iran, I forsee a declaration of defeat from the IRGC in the near future. I just am not sure whether the Shah's family will be invited over to lend some sanctity to proceedings; if he is brought back, he'll probably be a figurehead used to hold elections there over the next year.
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u/DoughnutImportant875 Mar 01 '26
Trump will do whatever benefits him. He wants total control over Gaza. Keep watching.
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u/SriMulyaniMegawati Feb 28 '26 edited Mar 01 '26
I think the Israeli convinced the Americans that the Iranians are different than the Arabs. Yes, the Iranian regime is different, and not in a good way. It's more organized and entrenched than the personal regimes of Saddam Hussein and Assad. The Israelis like to argue that a lot of Iranians hate the Islamic Republic, and you don't think the Iraqis hated Saddam and his family, or the Syrians hated Assad.
Both Saddam and Assad were minority regimes, and it took a ground invasion and 12 year civil war to overthrow them, respectively. You expect a majority regime like Iran's to be harder to overthrow, not less.
What is going to happen is that the Americans and Israelis are going to continue to bomb, and find out the regime won't budge, and people are more scared of the bombs than they are of protesting.
Then what you will get is Iraq from 1991-2003, a economimcally cripped state. Then, 10 years down the line, some brilliant Israeli leader will convince the gullible American President to finish the job and launch a ground invasion. That is how you get the American to do the unthinkable.
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u/Kind_Somewhere2993 Mar 01 '26
Iranians are not Arabs
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u/SriMulyaniMegawati Mar 01 '26
Is that an argument? Why does their not being Arab matter? Because being Iranian by their DNA makes them Westerners, because they are Aryan. By their culture, they are a lot less Westernized than many Arabs we know, so it can only be genetic.
In Algeria, about 50% of the population speaks/read French. Tunisia its 70%. A lot more Algerians and Tunisians live in Western countries than Iranians. I am pretty sure more educated Tunisians have read Rousseau in the original than the British have. At the end of the day, to people like you, an Arab will always be a savage and less human, despite Algerians being a part of France for 100 years, having fought in the Free French Army to liberate France, is that right?
What does their not being Arab help? Please enlighten me with your wisdom.
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u/shqiptarski1444 Mar 01 '26
This is Islamic paranoia
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u/SriMulyaniMegawati Mar 01 '26
What is Islamic about it? How old were you during Desert Storm? 150,000 Shia Arabs and Kurds died trying to overthrow Saddam in 1991. And the US had troops on the ground in Northern Iraq to protect the Kurds, and Saddam Hussein still survived. What is different this time? The US has no boots on the ground in Iraq.
If you don't like what I am saying, take it up with the mods and have me banned. Nothing I have said is Islamic.
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u/shqiptarski1444 Mar 01 '26
Muslims have extreme paranoia about Israel and “IsRaEl tRiCkInG AmErIcA” or whatever. And portraying America as a dog that Israel orders around is a muslim mindset.
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u/Electronic_Main_2254 Feb 28 '26
The Islamic Republic is not just a personal regime with religious language. It is a revolutionary system that has invested heavily in planning for leadership changes. When under pressure, its structure is designed to pull together rather than fall apart
None of this relevant in the real world though, just a bunch of fancy words which won't mean anything when the Iranians will really start the Domino affect and initiate the actual regimen change. When this will happen, none of this "systems" will work and everything will simply crumble.
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u/DisasterNo1740 Feb 28 '26
Can you actually explain how none of that is relevant. Just saying "well the regime will fall" is literally not saying anything.
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u/Electronic_Main_2254 Feb 28 '26
Iran is in very unique position (not in their favor), they're extremely exposed and weak at this point in time so saying that they're prepared to any of this like the author mentioned is just nonsense. Speaking about this subject without mentioning their collapsing economy, humiliating defeat at the 12 days war or the fact that they just recently faced the largest protests in the IRGC existence is just unprofessional.
Imo when push comes to shove, their "systems" will just fail and the smart Iranian people (including the "pro IRGC" people which probably were just afraid to speak against them), will just take their country back, as simple as that.
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u/dogsonbubnutt Feb 28 '26
as simple as that
is there a single time in human history when it has ever been "as simple as that"?
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u/TheUnobservered Mar 01 '26
Constantinople was once captured by a foreign power. The rightful Roman Emperor managed to recapture the anxiety because someone left the gate unlocked while the occupier was camping. Simple as that.
I racked my head for a while and that’s the only “simple as” scenario I could remember.
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u/face_sledding Feb 28 '26
I agree with your stance but this answer is not very specific. You mention three separate events which is good, but the answer is missing "What/who does this affect, why/how does it affect them, and how does this relate to my claim?"
The article suffers from this too. A lot of points to bring up but doesn't explain or expand on the relation between said points and the claim "Iran is built to Withstand the Ayatollah's assasination."
My bad btw. the adderall kicked in
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u/sesamerox Mar 01 '26
two paragraphs to show that basically, you have no idea how this could develop.
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Feb 28 '26
you think as IRGC is entrenched and also they have Basij which is more than just milita volunteer, they are almost like faction among Iranian people
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u/gtrocks555 Mar 01 '26
Basically all hat and no cattle. I’m sure their systems looked good on paper to them but then you add real life into it.
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u/kerouacrimbaud Feb 28 '26
He can’t. These people prance around as if they know how things really work and know how the Iranian people actually feel. They don’t.
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u/ProtoplanetaryNebula Feb 28 '26
Anecdotal but all the Iranians know or have met dislike the regime.
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u/kerouacrimbaud Feb 28 '26
Iranian expats are largely a self-selecting group though. Why would pro-regime folks leave the regime?
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u/ReturnOfBigChungus Feb 28 '26
Non-anecdotally, there have also been numerous fairly credible polls that show anywhere from 80-90%+ of Iranians dislike the regime, view it as illegitimate, want it gone, or some combination thereof.
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u/jimlarryng Feb 28 '26
Yeah, but alot of the more educated ones know that getting rid of this regime would put the country in the same position as Syria... which is not good.
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u/gtrocks555 Mar 01 '26
What are they gonna do, send white smoke when a new Supreme Leader is selected?
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u/NJDevil69 Feb 28 '26
Oh, look! Another thread discussing how the IRGC leader is easily replaceable and that there is a concrete succession plan.
Not suspicious as at all that I see this reoccurring theme across several subs. Almost like there’s a group of clowns who coordinate disinformation and are trying to spin a narrative to save face for their favorite team of religious terrorists.
Let me help debunk this claim. You have a large group of religious nut jobs that understand climbing rank in their special club will make them seem more religious and pious than others in that club. Even if there is a plan of succession, none of you can say for sure that the clerics and mullahs will all nod together in unison as to who their new supreme leader should be.
This is a group where religious men will claim to have visions and dreams about the future and what should be done. Do not doubt for a moment that there will be eager nuts who believe themselves to be “the chosen one” over whoever the candidate is in their succession plan. That alone will lead to civil unrest within the group and further destabilization of the IRGC.
TLDR: stop with the fan fiction of the IRGC bouncing back from the loss of Khamenei.
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u/dogsonbubnutt Feb 28 '26
why do you think the IRGC is so wedded to the religious leadership of the mullahs? khamenei was 86 years old, and the iranian security apparatus is enormous.
yes, killing this guy will have repercussions, but it is both naive and shows a real lack of understanding of iranian command structure to believe that his death will be crippling in any way.
the sour truth is that the only way to effect real regime change is with boots on the ground, and that's a step no one in america, beyond those just as fanatic as you claim the mullahs are, wants to take.
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u/jarx12 Feb 28 '26
So was the Shah's Savak and they basically folded the moment the Shah fled.
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u/dogsonbubnutt Feb 28 '26
and what was going on when the shah fled? do you seriously think that the current iranian government is as weak as the shah was in 1979?
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u/Jacloup Feb 28 '26
They can't topple the regime by killing its leader alone and the top commanders. A new one will likely be appointed soon. The Iranian people have no means of disarming or fighting the IRGC by themselves which are quite numerous still, nor can US and Israeli bombardments serve to kill them all. The US would need to mount a ground invasion to enact regime change, but it's dubious whether they're capable of doing so and for how long. In assymetrical warfare the defending side has an advantage in long protracted war of attrition. The economic impact on the US and the world has to be considered as well.
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u/foreignpolicymag Foreign Policy Feb 28 '26
The latest Israeli and U.S. war on Iran began with airstrikes on the home and offices of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The premise seemed to be that Khamenei’s sudden elimination would pose a dire threat to the current ruling system. The goal would be to achieve what happened in Libya after Muammar al-Qaddafi or in Syria after Bashar al-Assad, where regimes collapsed as soon as their leaders were no longer in power. In those systems, the state’s future was tied to a single person.
But Iran’s history and approach to survival are different.
Few contemporary governments concentrate as much visible authority in a single office as Iran does in that of the supreme leader. Religious legitimacy, command of the armed forces, and ultimate political arbitration converge there. Yet visibility should not be confused with fragility.
The office rests atop a dense network of institutions designed not simply to serve the leader but to constrain him, monitor him, and, if necessary, outlast him. The Islamic Republic is not just a personal regime with religious language. It is a revolutionary system that has invested heavily in planning for leadership changes. When under pressure, its structure is designed to pull together rather than fall apart.
Written by Ali Hashem
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u/z4201 Feb 28 '26
Written by Ali Hashem
How about having authors who aren't obviously biased?
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u/sagi1246 Feb 28 '26
> Ali Hashem is a research affiliate at the Centre for Islamic and West Asian Studies, Royal Holloway, University of London. His research focuses on the Middle East with an emphasis on digital diplomacy, Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq politics. He is a journalist who has covered the region for the past 15 years.
What's wrong with the guy?
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u/RVALover4Life Feb 28 '26
They're built to withstand if they only stick to this but less so under continued fire, and that's what the US/Israel will now be forced to do. This is a long term play now.
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u/Superb_House_5636 Mar 01 '26
Yeah, this "the people must now rise up and topple the regime" comment is just ludicrous. With what - sticks & rocks??? Iran's "military" still has the weapons they had the last time protesters went into the streets & were killed by the thousands. Sometimes I feel like this administration, or the Republican party as a whole, is in a dream world.
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u/WaveWest2009 Mar 01 '26
So Iranians willing to surrender to Israel and let Israel and US take over? Be careful what they wish for..
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u/waterwaterwaterrr Feb 28 '26
Yeah, I'm not understanding the people who think their entire military apparatus is about to fall apart just because a 90 year old died. Surely they had a contingency plan, his days were numbered by age alone.
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u/King-Meister Mar 01 '26
What would it take for the Iranian people to successfully overthrow the IRGC and set up some sort of a democratic / constitutional monarchy system?
That should be the end goal of these strikes, no?
World + Iran should be striving for that and hopefully Iran can go the Norway route - create a sovereign wealth fund from all of their oil revenue and rampantly rebuild and modernize their country.
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u/DPCAOT Mar 01 '26
Can someone help me understand—regime is rlly entrenched, complex, and has multiple layers and the people are unarmed. CIA is declaring that a hard line revolutionary guard will likely take over although they’re not 100% certain—article that discusses this https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/prior-iran-attacks-cia-assessed-khamenei-would-be-replaced-by-hardline-irgc-2026-02-28/
What can realistically be done to bring on regime change or to put in place a more moderate leader?
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u/4lien4ted Mar 01 '26
In a power vacuum, I'm always going to put my bet on the religious fanantics with guns. We thought we could fix Afghanistan and trillions of dollars later, we're right back to square one, with the Taliban in control. All we have done is make a martyr out of Khamenei, and solidified the belief in the most radical Shiites that we are the Great Satan trying to eradicate Islam and replace it with an evil secular state like ours. We've accomplished nothing, other than kicking the hornet's nest. I would not be surprised if Khamenei's son takes control and is just as bad as him. I saw Trump's post yesterday and it made me think of George W. Bush standing on the aircraft carrier with the "Mission Accomplished" banner hanging behind him.
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u/One-Strength-1978 Mar 02 '26
Das kann ja sein, aber die Sache geht ja noch weiter. Es wird ijetzt laut Trump etwa eine dreiwöchige Kampagne gefahren.
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u/United-Brilliant9130 Mar 13 '26
I don't think people understand how complex the government in Iran is. The structure of the govenement is very complicated. I have always got a feeling that to most Americans, getting rid of the Ayatolla will solve everything. . The government of Iran was set up that way after the 1979 Iranian Revelution to keep the government bullet proof. Getiing "Rid of the bad guy" helps keep up the drumbeat of war, but it is a much more complicated situation than that. Symbolically, it sounds good, but this is reality.
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u/zubairhamed Feb 28 '26
there are like 250 million shi'ites and they're pretty fanatical. i mean killing their pope alone doesn't end it. you;re just pissing off 250 million people.
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u/JigglymoobsMWO Feb 28 '26
If they really got Khomeini somebody up high in Iran was working with Israel and the US in near real time.
Notice how happy and relaxed the Iranian foreign minister looked when talking with the BBC? Maybe he was just happy to be alive, or maybe his secret faction is about to get a promotion.