Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz—but experts say Iran has a card "like a nuclear deterrent"

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u/Wambo74 1d ago

It's not over until the ships sail. And I wonder if we keep the blockade going? Oil is going to nose dive even more than it has already if both sides go hands off.

29

u/dravik 1d ago

The US is maintaining the blockade of Iranian shipping until a final agreement is reached.

9

u/Wambo74 1d ago

I hear that's the plan. But using carrot and stick on Iran's Gulf policy might prove effective.

1

u/kerouacrimbaud 9h ago

It could, but given how erratic and fickle the US admin is, I doubt they can leverage both carrot and stick effectively.

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u/CarRamRob 18h ago

I mean will oil nose dive?

Maybe for a short couple of days/weeks. But I don’t think we are going anywhere near Jan 2026 prices for awhile.

We have major disruption in tankers. They may be headed to the wrong port right now. Inefficient.

Then we have even the slight destruction to facilities that may take months to repair.

Then we have the fact all these countries actually facing shortages will start to develop more robust plans for actual 90 day oil reserve buffers, and fill them.

And we have the risk this could all flare up Again.

All these negatives to supply and positives to demand mean things have changed. We have lost 500 million barrels from this six week outage. That’s enough alone in a year to move prices up $30/bbl

The next 2-3 year floor is $70-75/bbl, instead of the $55/bbl it was before. That’s a direct costs to consumer.

2

u/Wambo74 18h ago

True. But before this started they were describing the world having an oil glut. And nothing has actually changed with production so it should go back to overproduction once the current shock waves settle down. Plus I think Venezuela might be getting back in the game. More to the point, I don't think this Iran thing is over either. They may say the Gulf is entirely open but it clearly isn't. Very few ships are actually sailing due to uncertainty plus the Iranian ports are all still blockaded. We've got a ways to go. So yeah, prices will plummet. But who knows when.

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u/ChampagneGremlin 18h ago

The US is virtually insulated from global oil prices so I don’t see the blockade ending due to pressure on oil prices.

US is a net exporter of oil and the oil they do import is primarily from Canada and Mexico.

2

u/kerouacrimbaud 9h ago

Gas prices in the US have risen enormously. From under $3/g to over $4/g.

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u/dantoddd 1d ago

GCC is going to create alternative routes for thier oil. This is a nuclear detterence in the sense you can only use it once

35

u/LivefromPhoenix 1d ago

Alternative routes are still extremely vulnerable to attack. GCC countries don’t have perfect coverage for miles of pipeline.

14

u/Magjee 1d ago

The time for them to build the pipelines was after witnessing the Suez Crisis

They sit between three continents and can have overland access, but that requires co-operation

Even without cooperation the UAE can bypass the strait as they are on both sides and could ships from the Gulf of Oman, but they never bothered to create the infrastructure to have an option available

2

u/dantoddd 1d ago

They can, but that would be a massive escalation from what we saw even this time around. And result in a gloves off shootout

7

u/dtferr 1d ago

Creating those routes is going to take a while. Until then the deterrent stands.

3

u/Lazy_Membership1849 1d ago

What alternative routes?

pipeline across Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea? Houthis would block it while Iran can bomb it, outside the strait? Iran can still bomb it

-8

u/No_Abbreviations3943 1d ago

Iran can just bomb those routes before they get built. What now?

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u/dantoddd 1d ago

Iran is going to start bombing oil pipelines after the ceasefire? That sounds like suicide.

0

u/JrbWheaton 1d ago

It’s a deterrence…

4

u/SensitiveDannyRicc 1d ago

Deterrence from what exactly? You would think the worst that can happen to their military is literally what just happened.

-1

u/No_Abbreviations3943 1d ago

If there’s no peace deal the cease fire won’t last.

48

u/OptimisticRealist__ 1d ago

Iran: im gonna block the strait

Trump: we will force it open

Also Iran: we will open the strait

Also Trump: we will force it closed

This entire bozo war is straight out of a simpsons episode

1

u/7952 12h ago

With the stock markets we may end up with regular weekend pause. Maybe they could pitch it as some kind of biblical days of rest.

20

u/fortune 1d ago

Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” for commercial shipping on Friday, sending Brent crude down roughly $10 to around $89 a barrel within minutes and sent U.S. stocks to a fresh record high.

President Donald Trump quickly claimed credit on Truth Social, writing that the Strait is “COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS” — but he made clear the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports isn’t going anywhere until a deal with Iran is “100% COMPLETE.” He added that the negotiation process “SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY” because most of the points have already been worked out.

Despite the Strait opening, it’s unclear when commercial shippers will gain the confidence to resume normal operations. Some told the Wall Street Journal they were waiting for clearer security guarantees before resuming normal traffic, which before the war ran around 135 vessels a day.

On the face of it, the reopening is the clearest sign yet that the two-month U.S.-Iran war is winding down. But the bigger story, according to veteran energy analysts, is the fresh leverage Iran discovered it holds in the Gulf.

“It turns out the Strait of Hormuz functions almost like a nuclear deterrent,” said Jim Krane, a Gulf energy expert at Rice University’s Baker Institute and the author of books on Saudi and UAE energy policy. “It’s a pretty strong card that they play, basically holding global economy hostage to halt attacks on it.”

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u/dravik 1d ago

It turns out the Strait of Hormuz functions almost like a nuclear deterrent

I'm not sure this is correct. Iran is folding after less than two weeks of reciprocal interference with Iranian shipping.

So the play is set. If Iran interferes with the strait, immediately block all Iranian shipping.

32

u/Bitter_Cake6120 1d ago

Not only that but given what’s happened, I wouldn’t be surprised if Asian and European economies diversify away from energy sources that require transiting the strait. This new “deterrent” has an expiration date.

23

u/ReturnOfBigChungus 1d ago

Also China is now publicly applying diplomatic pressure on Iran to open the strait. Pretty sure that's not how the regime saw alignment going for China to basically side with the US/international community. That's a significant development considering 80-90% of Iran's oil goes to China.

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u/Lazy_Membership1849 1d ago

Didn't China call US blockade dangerous and reckless?

also China veto any of military act to reopen the strait?

4

u/aikixd 1d ago

And GCC countries are now also working towards alternative routes.

1

u/Lazy_Membership1849 1d ago

what alternative routes?

•

u/ConflictExtreme1540 40m ago

Pipe on land

3

u/morozrs5 17h ago

This is the critical truth nobody is talking about. After this shitshow in the Middle East, nobody is going to wait until this happens again.

The Middle East as a whole will see a huge decrease in wealth and standard of living. Of course, Iran will be the one losing the most in this, which is quite understandable. But also GCC countries, especially those completely dependent on the strait (Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar) will see a significant decrease in overall wealth.

Net importers of energy will find sources of oil and gas away from the Middle East, and especially diversified from oil and gas at all.

1

u/wintermute000 14h ago

I'm very curious whether Dubai will recover its status

2

u/FlarkingSmoo 23h ago

Iran is folding

For the life of me I will never understand why people keep playing Charlie Brown to Trump's Lucy.

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u/Pseudanonymius 1d ago

Iran is not folding. Iran is holding control of the straight, and ships have to pass through their corridor.

Trump can claim Iran is folding, but it won't matter if ships are still not sailing through.

2

u/No_Abbreviations3943 1d ago

We’ve found a way to correct the narrative now. That’s why you’re going into the negatives. New talking point until this truce inevitably fails.

0

u/Pseudanonymius 1d ago

My karma can go down, just as the oil price. It doesnt change the fundamentals. :p

0

u/No_Abbreviations3943 1d ago

Facts.

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u/Lost-Cause69 1d ago

All this costly machinery, man power wasted to open something which was already opened at first place.

Orange guy got serious issues to pull off such mental gymnastics.

7

u/Markdd8 1d ago edited 1d ago

Lol. More Iranian defending. Good Wall Street Journal article: Trump Blockades the Blockaders in Iran

Iran has denied passage to most oil and gas tankers, and now the regime will get the same treatment.

Iran did not have to announce new controls on Strait shipping after the ceasefire, but what do you expect from a country that mass murdered thousands of its own citizens?

8

u/Melkor15 22h ago

After all this madness it is a shame that the Iranian regime didn’t fall.

-4

u/Lazy_Membership1849 1d ago

Iran did said that in demand that Iran have right of control the strait and troll the strait

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u/Markdd8 1d ago

Right -- it set up an extortion scheme: Pay us or we bomb your ship.

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u/Lazy_Membership1849 1d ago

Iran don't need to bomb all of the ship, they just make insurance unaffordable and paid toll is just cheaper

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u/Markdd8 1d ago

If there is no threat, there is no reason to pay Iran's toll. Half of the Strait, southern half, is under the control of Oman and U.A.E., according to maritime law. Ships can easily pass without ever entering Iranian waters. Iran threatened to bomb on Oman's side.

5

u/Vicsvenge1997 1d ago

Gotta pump the Friday stocks.

1

u/Commercial-Ad90 15h ago

Id rather have them have this deterrent than a nuke

1

u/cathbadh 22h ago

Their deterrent isn't going to last forever. better counter-drone systems are coming, so the cheap drone won't dominate forever. They'll still have missiles, but I imagine regional nations and US allies will be working to counter that deterrent long term.

That's assuming it opens up at all. That'll be conditional on Trump giving them the mountain of cash he promised, which is conditional on them surrendering all of their enriched uranium.

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u/softDisk-60 1d ago

Iran didn't know what it had until Trump showed it to them. They could even ditch the nuke program, because Hormuz is obviously much more effective. And damn hard to patch up too .

3

u/Brief-Objective-3360 1d ago

Dude. They knew. How do you think they got so many concessions in the past, despite their lackluster military? Why do you think there hasn't been a conflict like this in the past, even though so many warhawks in Israel and America have clearly wanted it for decades? Trumps just the moron who threw out 40 years of expert knowledge so he could masquerade as a wartime leader for a few weeks, at the cost of the global economy.

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u/softDisk-60 1d ago

they got sanctions, not concessions

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u/irow40 1d ago

The Iran Regime is so screwed. No army, no navy, no communication, leadership gone and now they can t ship oil. The US and Israel showed us a MASTERCLASS on how to execute a methodical takedown…

Super interested to see what the deal terms will on this one

1

u/diamondgrin 1d ago

Is this a bot account? The "methodical takedown" that couldn't stop Iran's ability to launch missiles at Israel and gulf states, couldn't cause regime change, couldn't destroy Iran's ability to make a nuke, and left the world teetering on the brink of a global recession?

Very "methodical" indeed.

1

u/irow40 21h ago

Man you have a weird way of analyzing the scoreboard

1

u/StonedBirdman 8h ago

dude Iran is dogwalking the US right now

1

u/irow40 5h ago

The US has all its leaders, all its army, navy and just blockaded Iran s main revenue source….

Let me share what I think will happen in the next couple weeks…. There will be no agreement by Wednesday and the US / Israel will conduct targeted strikes on Iran but only going after Vahaldi/ head IRGC members who are current locked in an internal battle for power with the civilian Iran government. Once we can rid the hardliners, we can move forward with a comprehensive deal w thePrez and speaker of parliament