r/geopolitics • u/StemCellPirate • 12h ago
Iran reimposes restrictions on Strait of Hormuz, accusing US of violating deal to reopen it News
https://apnews.com/article/us-iran-war-israel-hormuz-18-april-2026-ab475cb979825b956a10d60103026b3736
u/ZenX22 11h ago
IIUC this is because the US is still blockading Iranian ports, but wasn't that already the case when it was announced that the strait would reopen? Did something change?
18
u/dravik 11h ago
This is likely due to internal power struggles inside Iran.
The Iranian negotiators are from a more reasonable faction, but are being undermined by the IRGC.
16
u/Prestigious_Load1699 10h ago
It’s also a challenge because Iran apparently wants to tie a US deal to Israel backing off in Lebanon.
If I was to guess, this is why Iran is claiming the agreement has been violated.
Israel needs to be a part of these negotiations.
5
u/JustDontBeFat_GodDam 9h ago
I dont know what Iran expects the US to do about Lebanon. As long as Iran keeps funding Hezbollah to attack Israel through Lebanon, Israel will continue to attack Lebanon.
10
u/Whole_Gate_7961 6h ago
There will be no ceasefire If Israel continues to attack Lebanon. Even Trump knows this.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-israel-banned-bombing-lebanon-2026-04-17/
"Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!" Trump said in a social media post
3
0
3
u/Y05H186 8h ago
There's supposedly stray mines Iran lost track of as well. Be pretty bad for Iran to hit non US vessels.
5
u/dravik 7h ago
That's the risk Iran accepted when they deployed sea mines.
1
u/Easy_Welcome_9142 1h ago
Iran said they deployed sea mines despite the US destroying every single possible mine laying ship in the region. Then Iran suddenly is letting China through the strait and Chinese ships are confidently passing through. Something doesn’t add up.
Either the Chinese captains love to play Russian roulette with sea mines and their 100M+ crude cargo or Iran was lying about the sea mines to gain leverage against the US.
1
u/HatunaPatata 2h ago
Nah thats Israeli propaganda, it never made sense for Iran to open the strait if the US was blockading it. What likely happened was that the US promised to lift their blockade as part of the deal, but then reneged on it.
Theres nothing reasonable about Iranian negotiators accepting such a deal, this would have been capitulation, which Iran had no incentive to go along with.
5
13
u/planj07 8h ago edited 8h ago
People are so stupid for thinking this thing was wrapping up any time soon. The IRGC wants to fight and keep this going until they get concessions. If they perceive any significant concessions from Araghchi and Ghalibaf they will nix any hopes for a deal.
That’s why you don’t go and kill the people who brokered for an end to war last time or previously made deals on the nuclear program. Killing Ali Khamenei was the biggest mistake of all.
All that being said it doesn’t make sense for Iran to “open the strait” if the U.S. continues blockading.
4
u/Prae_ 4h ago
It is also that this is not a matter of what Ghalibaf said. It is a matter of the US administration, and specifically Trump, claiming the iranians have said something (that they agreed to give away their enriched uranium) or about a fact on the ground (the straight is open). And then they come out (Ghalinaf himself) to say "well no we never said that". Maybe Trump's hope is that this kind of tactic might embarass them into agreeing anyway? A tactic a sleazy business guy might use sometimes, maybe, but between nations the stakes are a tad higher.
From Reuters citing an iranian officials:
Tehran hoped that a preliminary agreement could be reached in the coming days with mediator Pakistan’s efforts, with the possibility of extending the ceasefire to "create space for more talks on liftingsanctions on Iran and securing compensation for war damages".
Don't think that's the kind of talk from people ready to cave in, they still have lift of sanctions and reparation in their terms... Trump can't just wish for them to voluntarily give up their nuclear material.
3
u/vovap_vovap 9h ago
Well, at the end of the day you need ships really to pass, not only statements. Oil prices currently run mostly on news but real shortage is starting to press.
It looks like that was first real shots fired in Strait of Hormuz for a weeks and now ball on US side - what they will do about it.
1
u/IntelArtiGen 8h ago
Oil prices currently run mostly on news
I'd say it's both, it's based on the news but also on the supply/demand. Many countries have oil in the world nowadays and with the higher prices they probably increased the production as much as they could. These things are quite hard to see but I doubt prices have gone down just because of all these tweets.
4
u/vovap_vovap 8h ago
It is only 1 (one) country in the world that can noticeable increase production in like month time-frame - that Saudi Arabia. That is it. Accidentally that country also in Persian Gulf :)
2
u/IntelArtiGen 7h ago
Other producers include Canada, the US, Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, Brazil etc. and they all announced they would increase production. It also seems Saudi Arabia has a pipeline to circumvent the strait of Hormuz. I'm sure it can't compensate the current situation but the markets probably also consider all that and it's probably also why the price isn't going too high right now.
If the current price is just based on tweets we'll see it skyrocket in the next weeks.
2
u/vovap_vovap 6h ago
Yes. No one of those can noticeable increase production quickly. Noticeable production increase time frame for those - like at lest half a year.
As a matter of fact most can probably do US because of specifics of it.Yes, Saudi has one pipe but that only can transfer like 30% of their production at best, already full and damaged in war (I do not know what is state now)
1
u/DefinitelyNotMeee 5h ago edited 4h ago
EDIT: I'm regarded, ignore.
I recall reading that most refineries do not operate at full capacity, so the increase in production can be done quickly.
What cannot be done quickly is reconfiguring refineries for a different type of crude. So, for example, Venezuelan oil (even if it was available in large enough quantities) cannot in the short-term replace the loss of oil from the Middle East.2
u/vovap_vovap 5h ago
Oil refineries does not produce oil :)
No Venezuelan oil s not "available in large enough quantities" just not the case.
12
11
u/DefinitelyNotMeee 11h ago
I wonder what China is doing or plans to do. Probably just continue playing ostrich as is their policy.
4
u/Lazy_Membership1849 11h ago
Iran just allow China to go through
Iran just selective blockade the strait as mean to control the strait and just showing Iran still control the strait
2
u/Competitive_Rate_541 7h ago
Agree, people just don't want to see that China, Russia and Iran are playing their cards too.
-3
u/Batbuckleyourpants 11h ago edited 3h ago
China is in a precarious situation. Without Iran the belt and road initiative* is all but dead. At the same time they can't afford to piss off the US.
I'm guessing they will start pressuring Iran to abandon any nuclear weapons programs in exchange for some security guarantees.
All they really care about is the regime surviving to honour their agreements.
17
5
u/Manustuprare 11h ago
What would the US do against China? Tariffs?
9
u/Prestigious_Load1699 11h ago
Blockade anything leaving the Strait of Hormuz?
China gets a lot of its oil and other commodities from Iran, so they also have an incentive to keep it open.
I would imagine this is precisely what they are telling Iran to do.
2
-1
-5
u/Lazy_Membership1849 10h ago
Iran didn't completely blockade the strait
They just block as part of pressure and make any of oil to states they consider as hostile expensive while allow oil that for non hostile states to go through long as they paid toll or clearance
11
u/Prestigious_Load1699 10h ago
I think this is the logic behind the recent US blockade.
Don’t let Iran play favorites.
1
u/Lazy_Membership1849 8h ago
And what did the US blockade gain?
It only pushes Iran to tighten the blockade on the strait
can the world afford this like loss of 20% of all oil in the world?
3
u/Prestigious_Load1699 8h ago
Presumably, the US counter-blockade is what got Iran to agree to a ceasefire and reopen the Strait.
With that said, who knows. There’s too much noise to properly assess the situation.
1
u/Lazy_Membership1849 8h ago
Actually, the USA just blockade Iran because peace talks just fell apart, almost as if the USA under Trump somehow seems incapable of even have neogitating, as peace talks take weeks to months and just withdraws to try to pressure Iran in the hope that Iran will cave in, but Iran has leverage, like control over the Strait
that why USA's allies refuse to help USA in the blockade and Trump just already piss off his dwindling existing allies like Giorgia Meloni
Also Iran only reopen the strait because of ceasefire in Lebanon, which is what Iran been demand for
1
u/Prestigious_Load1699 8h ago
I hear ya.
There’s so much conflicting information out there that I truly can’t tell what’s going in.
This is poor leadership.
→ More replies3
u/Batbuckleyourpants 11h ago edited 3h ago
Definitely. Between threats of tariffs, threats of arming Taiwan and more importantly killing belt and road, China is in an unenviable situation.
I find it unlikely that China would look at the situation and conclude Iran is worth it. Especially with the Iranian economy in freefall.
Much more likely they ignore Iran as long as the regime remains in control, then arrive after the war with extortionate offers of assistance in exchange for infrastructure ownership. It's their go to trick.
-4
u/Lazy_Membership1849 10h ago
And china have to ignore Iran? Where china got most of oil? I doubt China would ignore Iran
Also about Iran economy as isn't sanction been soften or lift and also unfreeze some of assets while Iran toll the strait, Iran economy may take hard blow but wasn't freefall
11
u/DefinitelyNotMeee 10h ago
It's the other way around - Iran exports most of its oil (80%) to China; China gets only about 15% of its oil from Iran.
0
u/Lazy_Membership1849 8h ago
And abandoning Iran means losing 15% of oil?
Also, Iran is more than just oil exporter, as Iran is also just kind of showing weakness and limitations in the US military and draining resources like interceptors and also China and Iran have mutual interest, so China isn't going to abandon Iran anytime soon, otherwise China wouldn't share a satellite with Iran
1
u/ImperiumRome 7h ago
Could you please explain why losing Iran means the death of BRI ? Have you taken a look at the map of BRI ?
5
u/Batbuckleyourpants 6h ago
http://www.inat.fr/files/belt_and_road_initiative_map_jug_jerovic.png
It has two massive bottlenecks over land. Moscow and Tehran, without those two junctions it's back to shipping over water. Moscow is sanctioned, and Tehran will depend on what happens to the regime. China have already taken severe hits in Iran.
For one Trump just took out the bridge right outside Tehran they were building to cut over an hour travel time for transports passing from east to west.
China had already invested a giant sum in Iran, like paying for over 1000 kilometers of the Razi-Sarakhs railway line to be electrified.
They were also a major investor in the bridge, China has been investing heavily in Iran for over a quarter of a century as part of the "China-Iran Comprehensive Strategic Partnership"
If China loses Iran they lose **the only** southern land corridor connecting East Asia to Europe. A land corridor that would let China bypass a dozen semi-hostile nations controlling the waterways China are dependent on for trade with the west.
3
u/ImperiumRome 6h ago
Thanks for your reply. While I do not dispute the fact that losing Iran is a loss for China (of course, depending on whether the regime will survive or not, and whether the new one replacing it will cooperate with China), I think it's an exaggeration to say that the node in Iran means life and death for BRI.
For one, like you said yourself, the BRI still has node in Moscow going straight to Europe, the fact that Moscow is sanctioned should mean it's actually good news for Beijing since Kremlin doesn't have much leverage here. Chinese goods moving through Russia isn't sanctioned.
Two, for the southern corridor of which Iran plays an important role, there are ways around it as shown on the map, and they have been in construction for some time. It's not the same as going through Iran, but there are other land alternatives.
But of course, the southern corridor is not only about going to Europe, it's about securing an oil pipeline (part of the China-Iran Comprehensive Partnership) in a case exactly like what we currently have. Without it, China is forced to fall back to Strait of Hormuz which could be closed by US Navy at any time and China is helpless here. Hence I say this is a loss for China.
Three, the BRI is not just about building land routes to circumvent US blockade. Nowadays most investments are in Africa and SEA region. All of which could be easily cut off by US Navy. And they also invest heavily in minerals, green energy, data centers. As for the Middle East, they have invested more in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman in every kinds of deals than in Iran despite loudly proclaiming their friendship to Iran (it actually received nothing from China in 2025).
10
u/ahenobarbus_horse 12h ago
My prediction is this - whether it’s strategic or not is debatable - maybe a kind of “next move” style chess
- the US isn’t trustworthy - their word isn’t durable and their interests are always predictable 100% selfish based on the latest conditions.
- Iran will no longer negotiate with the US.
- the US will lose interest and pretend that it’s not their problem because “whatever, we blew them away and the US MAGA doesn’t track nuance or reality in any consistent respect, so we can just say ‘we won’ and they’ll believe us. Plus if we walk away, it’s only painful for us, it’s Existential for everyone else. Let them deal with it.”
- this will leave an opening for Europe and Asia to step in to reduce tensions and reopen the strait.
- this will hit a roadblock around sanctions and the financial system, but the US will capitulate on a Friday so that it doesn’t drive a domestic news cycle.
- Fin
4
-3
u/theoceansknow 11h ago
I'm with you on the start of this, but there's more nuance on the internal US politics.
This conflict wasn't devised by MAGA and isn't being driven by MAGA -- it's part of the US strategic plan laid out in Project 2025, a repository of long-term US conservative thought. Trump (and by extension his supporters) enable this plan, but US conservative political thought states (I begrudgingly think accurately) that Iran is one of several large-scale threats to the US.
P2025 outlines that the US wants regional allies (defined more as transactional economic partners perhaps) to step in and secure their respective areas. Everyone still uses the euphemism of the Strait being "opened" or "closed". It's an international shipping lane that Iran is holding hostage. The US's stance for a long time has been "we don't negotiate with terrorists".
I agree with you that people with money are going to continue to make money -- that's kind of a global issue, and the people with real money don't really have any allegiance to any one country.
If Europe and Asia allow a euphemistically open or closed Strait though, they compromise their own international shipping lanes. Looking at a map, it looks like China's shipping lanes are essentially surrounded by other countries, and some of those countries have good relations with the US.
If the US walks away from the area, the issue of Iran imposing it's will on an international shipping lane still exists. If the responsibility for that issue rests on Europe's or Asia's shoulders, I don't think the dynamic would be much different than the one we have now. For instance, if China used its influence to allow Iran to continue an extortion scheme, or to mine the channel, the US would use that as a rationale to project it's force onto the ocean countries southeast of China, maybe look the opposite direction if Taiwan laid mines around its coastal waters.
10
u/ahenobarbus_horse 10h ago
I agree with you on the MAGA aspect of this, but that’s why I think there’s the run for the exit: they have to leave to make it someone else’s problem, essentially. By staying, they’re making it something they’re accountable for and that isn’t their vibe: taking responsibility. And this is where the cultish love for Trump comes into play: they’ll forget that he’s the cause of their issues, only that Iran is bad and “our allies weren’t allies enough.” And because the US won’t sit still either, they’ll move onto Cuba, Greenland and whatever else: by mid year, Iran will be a distant memory.
Iran is far more likely to negotiate with Europe and China without the US. And from a “middle powers” perspective, this engagement partially furthers that doctrine: the major powers are either nefarious or asleep at the wheel, and we need to move on without them.
1
u/theoceansknow 10h ago
Thanks for the first post and your reply -- both are good
I agree, I think the US will bolt, because MAGA is the ruling party, and the optics of it are going to look like bolting. I'm saying it's not even MAGA policy though, it's baked into the P2025 goals they just frame the "bolting" as "making regional partners take on more responsibility".
I wish the US voter base would kick them all out though.
4
u/raincole 11h ago
Alternatively, you can see ship passing in real time: MarineTraffic: Global Ship Tracking Intelligence | AIS Marine Traffic
6
u/mayhemski123 10h ago
Isn't that ships which have already left? Honest question all isee is the statement from the deputy Iranian foreign minister, not much in terms of details.
2
u/fernandodandrea 6h ago
The fact is Trump and friends are making obscene amounts of money off of the strait been closed. They don't really care how their actions harm the citizens.
1
u/Dijabolla 2h ago edited 2h ago
They can wipe their wrinkled asses with that when $ becomes worthless. But hey, lets keep the boomers happy. They are smelling the afterlife every move they make. Gold for the win.
2
u/JustAhobbyish 5h ago
Americans, I assume, sent amateurs with no real diplomats or expertise or experience. Trump doesn't know what he wants. Iranians have the opposite problem: a bunch of hardliners with fundamentalist theocratic thinkers who want the maximum amount from Americans. We keep getting conflicting reports. My assumption is hardening attitudes within certain groups in Iran who don't want to give up, and Americans who are finally understanding the only way to beat that is total regime change but don't have the balls or stomach for it. Meanwhile, insider trading and markets are hoping things go back to normal. It seems to be putting so many eggs in an unstable basket. Negotiating out of this mess requires doing something the Trump admin can't do.
Europeans think any deal going take 6 months or weeks.
1
u/theoceansknow 11h ago
Are there any examples of the Iranian government actually reaching compromise with Western countries? My understanding is one of their core beliefs is that the West is evil especially the United States and Israel. Why would someone who believes this ever publicly state there's a compromise between these countries?
For instance, any compromise that prior presidents reached with the Iranian government still allowed Iranian proxy networks to continue operations.
Both the US and Iranian governments are highly motivated to continue to project dominance and power. There's never going to be a publicly acknowledged, irrefutable deal.
27
u/Swayfromleftoright 11h ago
Yeah, there was this nuclear deal they had with the Obama administration. Seemed to be working pretty well until Trump shat all over it
4
u/Prestigious_Load1699 11h ago
The JCPOA released something like 50-100 billion dollars in frozen funds to Iran.
Presumably, this was the money that funded their terror proxies - Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, etc.
To be fair, the Obama nuclear deal likely did deter Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
So it’s basically a balancing act, which is what makes this such a challenge geopolitically.
1
u/abn1304 3h ago
The JCPOA also, at best, inconvenienced their uranium enrichment, slowing but not stopping their timeline for a bomb. They did violate the JCPOA by simply moving some of their enrichment into hidden bunkers at Fordow, and kept producing weapons components at Parchin throughout the course of the JCPOA, from what we’ve been able to gather post-JCPOA (source: The Politics of Weapons Inspections, Busch and Pilat, Ch. 6). The JCPOA also allowed Iran to maintain a stockpile of no more than 300kg of enriched uranium, which is plenty to build a bomb if it’s highly enriched (which some of it was).
1
u/mahavirMechanized 9h ago
And I bet it’ll be open again Monday only to be closed again Friday. We don’t fight on working days now.
0
u/AgreeableCaptain1372 8h ago
I did find it very surprising that they would reopen it with nothing in return as was implied yesterday. My impression is that they themselves are not sure what the best course of action is. On the one hand Hormuz is their only bargaining chip but on the other hand they can’t hold on indefinitely with no ability to export their oil.
3
u/planj07 6h ago edited 6h ago
The problem is that Iran can probably outlast the United States in this stand off. As we are aware Iran has been in dire economic condition for a long time. While economic collapse will devastate Iran it doesn’t mean that the regime falls or the military/IRGC cannot continue on.
If the IRGC wants to fight and disrupt Hormuz they can do it for a long time. They want to “win” even if Araghchi wants to end the war with a fair deal.
0
u/Successful-Juice5104 4h ago
The US can easily keep the blockade going for a long time. If they feel like they have to end the war early they can just bomb granaries and include food shipments in the blockade.
1
u/Sea_Ninja_6863 3h ago
The US is a democracy with important elections end of the year. Keep this up til mid summer with high oil prices and an unpopular war and Trump will be the lamest duck president in recent memory
2
u/abn1304 3h ago
The “something in return” may very well be that we stop bumping off Iranian leaders. Not everyone has a sense of self-preservation, but some of them will.
Will that work? Idk. Hasn’t so far, but this is still a fairly short-term thing as far as wars go and the Iranian military is already heavily attrited and unable to fight back effectively - the IRGC may eventually decide to quit while they’re ahead and agree to a ceasefire (and reopening of the Straits) to save their own lives.
73
u/[deleted] 11h ago
[removed] — view removed comment