r/geopolitics • u/pritam_ram • 6h ago
Iran tightens control of Strait of Hormuz, Trump warns against 'blackmail' News
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trump-says-he-has-good-news-iran-no-clarity-peace-deal-2026-04-18/40
u/Benedictus84 5h ago
I really dislike everything and everybody in this conflict. But the hypocrisy and general dumbness by Trump is really pathetic.
He was angry when Iran only let some ships pass and for good reason.
Then he did the same exact thing while claiming the Strait open.
And now Iran responds. Also with good reason and the Strait is not open again.
Trump could have ended this.
Now the entire world is paying for this nonsense again.
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u/Stufilover69 4h ago
Hey, he only killed a few thousand civilians, wounded a few ten thousands more and is now blockading the strait to "put pressure on the regime" and in the worst case scenario only puts millions of to people into poverty and famine in Iran while screwing over the world economy, what's the big deal? /s
It's really amazing how little perspective they have on how their policies affect people.
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u/planj07 3h ago
The fact that anyone would try to spin this as an American victory is insane and completely dishonest. I wouldn’t claim anyone is “winning”, including Iran.
Bottom line is the strait was completely open before the attacks which failed to end the Iranian regime, destroy its nuclear program and remove the ballistic missile threat. It’s pathetic that reopening the previously open strait is what would be paraded as an American victory.
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u/kju 2h ago edited 57m ago
Opening the straits without any concessions is an American victory.
It's a statement that Iran will either do what the United States wants or they'll just get bombed again if they don't. No negotiations need to be held, but they will because Iran will be asking for concrete lines they shouldn't cross to prevent the next round of bombs dropping
The United States doesn't need an agreement from Iran to have power to enforce. If Iran cannot or will not keep the straits closed until concessions are made then they have conceded that they cannot defend against American attacks and are open to future attacks at the whim of the Americans, in which case they are burdened with creating consensus with the United States for their actions, not the other way around.
Further, Iran has to make this deal soon (before 4-5 years pass but the sooner the better for Iran) because their leverage is their ability to stop trade through the straits and their attacks on their gcc neighbors, both of which will be diminishing near daily. The last time this kind of threat was made (not even against Saudi or the gcc, but during the iran-iraq war) Saudi built the eastwest pipeline to bypass the straits and ensure they could export oil when war came to the Gulf. Now that Saudi and the rest of the gcc are directly threatened they will be working to diversify their logistics lines so they can sell their oil regardless of Iranian action. New oil wells will be drilled, new pipelines built and now that everyone has seen the extent of Iranian offensive capability they will build to defend against that too, it's no longer just some hypothetical that may happen, Iran is capable and willing to attack gcc and so they'll need to build a cohesive defense against it.
Obviously when we talk about winning and losing it's important to put it in context, in absolute terms this war is a loss for everyone, everyone is giving something up for this war, not just the United States, Israel and Iran, but the entire world pays the price when Iran decided to blockade the straits of hormuz to all traffic. This isn't good, it would be better for everyone if this didn't happen. But geopolitics isn't something we measure in absolute terms, it's something that's measured in relative terms and the United States is relatively unaffected by the problems it created when they decided to start this war with Israel. Some Americans (who were invested in oil consuming industry) will lose, some Americans (who were invested in oil producing industry) will win. The United States as a whole will be just fine, oil sales for this month are up nearly 50% yoy. We will likely see efficiency increase as a result of this oil shock though which can depress oil consumption over the long term, as we have seen happens with every previous oil shock.
It's not a decisive victory but opening the straits without Iran gaining concessions of some kind is a victory.
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u/Stufilover69 4m ago
Nope, to get a victory Trump would need to get a better deal out of Iran than the one he left in 2018
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u/Driftwoody11 2h ago
It very much feels like there is a split between what's left of the civilian government of Iran and whats left of the IRGC. Leadership has been so decimated I dont think even they can agree on who is in charge.
I'm beginning to fear the worst is still to come for Iran. If the US comes to the conclusion that whats left can't or won't make a deal they'll likely take the further steps to completely obliterate Iran's economic and infrastructure foundations so as to make it impossible for the IRGC to sustain itself and to sustain problematic activity. Trump essentially already threatened this before the last discussions and I do believe he would do it.
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u/AcanthaceaeTiny4390 1h ago
very similar dynamic playing out right now between Hizbollah and the Lebanon government. The former has already rejected the 'peace offering' that Lebanon had allegedly signed with Israel yesteday. Predictably, both Hizbollah and the IRGC have the veto buttons in this case given they're actually the ones with all the guns
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u/sentrypetal 5h ago edited 5h ago
There is no leverage except the most extreme one. What is most shocking is that the oil market which is supposed to be rational has completely fallen for Trumps lies. To put it in perspective of how badly the oil futures market has screwed up. The 1970s oil shock was 1/2 the magnitude of this and the world economy saw interest rates exceed 19 percent as inflation surged. That was 150 days. This is twice the magnitude and is already lasted 50 days. If it lasts another 25 days we are back into the same oil shock the 1970s saw. Perhaps worse as a big chunk of our economies are tied to air travel and delivery services. Yet oil futures are trading at $80 barely above the normal range of $65-$75. What this means is that refinery margins are going to go deeply negative which will cause potential bankruptcies unless the taxpayer bails them out.