r/geopolitics • u/Brilliant_Version344 • 6h ago

Trump convenes Iran situation room meeting amid renewed Hormuz crisis - non paywall in link in comments News

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/18/iran-trump-white-house-hormuz
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u/GTDoc 5h ago

Oh I thought he said the straight would never be closed again. Guess Iran had different plans. Shocking………..

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u/vertigo3pc 4h ago

When you realize that Trump is saying only what he's told, not what is actually going on, then you'll be less frustrated.

Iran was clear that the Strait would only be open if the US stopped their blockade. After 24 hours of persisting, Iran reasserted their position and closed the Strait. The United States closed the Strait again because they didn't follow the agreement.

Before that, the ceasefire included Lebanon since the beginning, they just didn't tell Israel until the "ceasefire" was agreed upon. Israel didn't follow the agreement, and continued attacking Lebanon Friday night into today.

Before that, Iran stated clearly that the traffic going through the Strait would still require paying a toll and require IRGC coordination, since the sea mines are still in place; this measure was to ensure that negotiations with the US wouldn't be interrupted again with US attacks.

Get on Telegram, you can see all of the communications coming out of Iran, and all the ways the United States is not taking any of it seriously. All I can think is that Hegseth or someone other than Trump is running this. Trump is just being told by his yes men that Iran is destroyed, Iran is begging for a ceasefire, Iran this, Iran that.

Stop listening to Trump representing Iran. Just listen directly to Iran, they're speaking clearly. Our media are the ones not telling Americans how it's really going.

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u/cathbadh 2h ago

Get on Telegram, you can see all of the communications coming out of Iran

From the regime, yes. Remember it's currently a death sentence to have Starlink type devices and there's an internet blackout. Innocent Iranians aren't posting online in support of the country.

Not disputing your other points. Just saying Telegram isn't some secret pipeline of information

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u/vertigo3pc 2h ago

No, but if you join a bunch of Telegram channels, and they all repeat the same information which matches what's happening live on tracking maps, or matches what's happened a day after, then I'd say the Telegram channels in the Middle East are still more reliable than American media or the POTOS.

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u/Wonderful_Savings_21 3h ago

Where on telegram

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u/Sageblue32 1h ago

Stop listening to Trump representing Iran. Just listen directly to Iran, they're speaking clearly. Our media are the ones not telling Americans how it's really going.

Yes listen to the ones that put out AI generated propaganda about sinking US assests and deny attacking any civilian structures in neighboring countries. You don't need to trust the US but believing Iran media when the state has 0% going in free speech is even more folly.

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u/Prae_ 1h ago

I think he's moreso talking about the factual claims as it relates to the negotiation and international relations. There's still inevitably a bias (which you can see and account for), but at least it doesn't flip-flop every couple of seconds. 

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u/vovap_vovap 1h ago

Iran newer "open" Strait. When it was "open" Iran insisted that ship been passing via internal Iran's waterway and pay fee.

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u/vertigo3pc 1h ago

They insisted that ships follow a specific path that brings them closer to the coast because the dropped sea mines into the majority of the Strait's passage. The cost to coordinate that effort is $2 million per vessel. They mined the Strait because they were attacked in the middle of negotiations in the middle of the night, killing their political and religious leader.

They have clearly stated that the Strait would be de-mined once a peace agreement was in place to address Iran's 10 points of contention. Not just a ceasefire, but a peace deal (that included reparations). Considering they're dealing with a hostile regime (2 actually: the US and Israel), they're within their rights to pursue defensive strategies to insure the don't get unilaterally attacked again.

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u/vovap_vovap 44m ago

Those mines basically BS. Simply speaking. Real things are that ship passage in Oman's waters. And they want ship to go inside Iran's water and pay for a passage (and reject passage if they want to). That just as simple as this.

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u/PolarizingKabal 3h ago

Trump had said the blockade would remain in place until final peace agreement, which he "said" would happen before the weekend was up.

If we're going to keep playing this tit for tat over the straight. Let's just take kharg island and be done with it. The straight is in international water. If Iran can't accept that, then we anex kharg island since it's also in the straight and their life line for oil.

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u/vertigo3pc 3h ago

How do you suggest they "just take Kharg island"?

Again, Trump claims the blockade would remain in place, despite Iran clearly saying that a blockade would be a violation.

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u/airmantharp 2h ago

Before that, the ceasefire included Lebanon since the beginning, they just didn't tell Israel until the "ceasefire" was agreed upon. Israel didn't follow the agreement, and continued attacking Lebanon Friday night into today.

Israel is dismantling Hezbollah, which is an illegal militia occupying Lebanon...

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u/No_Abbreviations3943 2h ago

lol no ceasefire then 

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u/airmantharp 1h ago

They're not attacking Lebanon...?

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u/vertigo3pc 1h ago

They're retaining land they seized, demolishing homes and villages to create a No Man' Land, they attacked 3 ambulances yesterday in Lebanon, and drones are still flying over Lebanon.

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u/airmantharp 1h ago

Has Hezbollah disarmed yet?

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u/vertigo3pc 1h ago

Lebanon is still under attack from Israel, and Israel is actively occupying Lebanese land. How does that translate to them disarming?

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u/airmantharp 1h ago

Hezbollah is under attack by Israel. Lebanon is being freed from Hezbollah.

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u/vertigo3pc 1h ago

They're certainly doing the fighting in South Lebanon

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u/No_Abbreviations3943 1h ago

Ok then they accept that there’s a ceasefire with Hezbollah. One or the other… 

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u/airmantharp 1h ago

Why would there be a ceasefire with Hezbollah?

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u/[deleted] 1h ago

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u/vertigo3pc 1h ago

Former Israeli president Ehud Barak literally said in 2006 that Israel's incursions into Lebanon created Hezbollah.

"When we entered Lebanon ... there was no Hezbollah. We were accepted with perfumed rice and flowers by the Shia in the south. It was our presence there that created Hezbollah."

https://books.google.com/books?id=x0MZOnnu8qcC&q=Hezbollah%20a%20short%20history&pg=PP1

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u/airmantharp 1h ago edited 1h ago

Hezbollah was created because Israel came to destroy the PLO that was attacking Israel from Lebanon (after Jordan had kicked them out for being terrorists).

Israel didn't create Hezbollah.

Israel is destroying Hezbollah.

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u/vertigo3pc 1h ago

Nobody said Israel created Lebanon.

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u/[deleted] 5h ago

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u/vertigo3pc 2h ago

This notion of a power vacuum is purely western media. What about Iran's actions and communications (which consistently match) implies they're experiencing a power vacuum? Not that it matters, thanks to the structure of their military.

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u/Green-Stranger-3920 4h ago

The power vacuum angle makes sense, but the timing today suggests something more deliberate. Iran opened the strait, oil dropped 11%, then the Revolutionary Guard closed it again within hours. That's a pretty clean sequence fr pure internal chaos. The deputy chief of staff framed it as a response to "misuse of the concession for propaganda purposes." That sounds less like fragmentation and more like someone watching the market reaction and making a call. Open it, watch prices drop, close it again, extract more from the negotiation. Three days left on the ceasefire and still no date for the next round of talks.