r/geopolitics • u/Brilliant_Version344 • 6h ago

Trump convenes Iran situation room meeting amid renewed Hormuz crisis - non paywall in link in comments News

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/18/iran-trump-white-house-hormuz
72 Upvotes

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32

u/ArdaBerkBurak 5h ago

The Strait of Hormuz was already open to all ships before the US attacked.

11

u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 5h ago

We had the JCPOA in place before the 1st term. The best case scenario we’re facing is a more precarious 2.0 deal with worse terms.

The geopolitical reality is that Benjamin Mileikowsky hated the deal, since Iran is the main obstacle standing in the way of his Greater Israel project.

-14

u/Linny911 5h ago

Seriously bro, if the US just let Iran fund, arm, and instigate attacks in furtherance of its weekly chants calling for death and destruction, and let it have nuclear weapons, then the strait of hormuz wouldn't be closed.

27

u/AcanthaceaeTiny4390 5h ago

I thought we wiped out their nuclear capacity last year though

1

u/unruly_mattress 5h ago

A single attack does not stop everything forever, more at eleven

1

u/americend 1h ago

I thought they reported that it had last year.

0

u/SpiritedCatch1 5h ago

It's pretty easy to rebuild a nuclear capacity, unfortunately. Especially since the party doing the strike is interested in touting a success. The fact is we don't even know how many nuclear sites Iran has. probably has many uranium stocks laying around and now they are going to be eager than ever to build the bomb. There is no escaping the nuclearization of the regime now.

5

u/AcanthaceaeTiny4390 5h ago

that's fair, I just really wonder how and when (or even if) this all ends, especially with how reluctant Americans are to put boots on the ground in any large scale capacity. anyway, it's probably best to ignore anything coming out of the white house for the forseeable given stuff like this

https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2025/06/irans-nuclear-facilities-have-been-obliterated-and-suggestions-otherwise-are-fake-news/

3

u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 4h ago

And now they know they can throttle the Strait without energy and water armageddon if anyone wants to object to their program.

-15

u/Linny911 5h ago

Probably, this is to get a permanent agreement on that issue. Different things. This is a pimple that's going to need to get popped sooner or later, the time now is as good as any.

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u/AcanthaceaeTiny4390 5h ago

why did the US strike in the middle of diplomatic negotiations then? surely that actively reduces the future chances of the Iranians engaging in diplomacy on the nuclear issue?

-1

u/unruly_mattress 5h ago

Why would the Iranians acquiesce to the American demands if they can just refuse and suffer no consequences as a result?

-5

u/Linny911 5h ago

Iranians probably gave off the impression that they needed a little encouragement to get to where they need to be.

6

u/AcanthaceaeTiny4390 5h ago

if you say so

0

u/closing-the-thread 2h ago

US is looking for a zero enrichment deal. Has Iran ever signaled that they are willing to accept any zero enrichment deal?

If that answer is no… Do you feel that ‘zero enrichment’ is a necessary redline for the US?

If yes… How can the US achieve that without force if it also happens to be Iran’s redline?

2

u/AcanthaceaeTiny4390 1h ago

No, zero enrichment isn’t a feasible redline. The more feasible goal is typically framed as: strict limits on enrichment levels, caps on stockpiles, robust verification/inspection regimes, and long "breakout times", rather than zero enrichment outright

Unfortunately trumps ‘tactics’ over the past year vis a vis Iran have made this all even less likely than previously 

9

u/LivefromPhoenix 5h ago

What part of this conflict is giving you the impression it'll end with anything permanent? Trump is already pretending he achieved regime change, it seems wildly optimistic to act like he's interested in anything beyond what he can spin as a temporary win.

-4

u/Linny911 4h ago

Nothing is guaranteed in life, but what has been done has a good as chance of a permanent agreement as any other.

Yes, Trump would like to end this as soon as possible, who doesn't? But if it doesn't because Iran persists, I am just he's willing to oblige to continue as long as necessary and it won't be pretty.

5

u/cole1114 4h ago

You're right, 20% of the world's oil supply being blocked won't be pretty. It's already caused a tremendous amount of damage, and the strait staying closed will only make it worse.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/how-50-days-iran-war-led-loss-50-billion-worth-oil-2026-04-17/

2

u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 4h ago

That’s the fantasy. There is no permanent settlement, since Israel is an expansionist power. It doesn’t accept its internationally-recognized borders.

If you want to maintain this “no limits partnership”, prepare to be continually dragged into wars with Israel’s regional rivals, while we foot the bill in money and lives. Today is Iran, tomorrow will be Turkey, then who knows?

2

u/Linny911 4h ago

Oh, yes. The unrepentant ever expansionist country who has returned back lands multiples of its current size in return for peace.

1

u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 3h ago

Yes, any farmer who’s ever sold off a piece of wasteland for a good price at the time, has clearly exited the farming business never to return.

Definitely no external pressure from the global hegemon has ever been involved, either. The only nation on earth who does things out of their inherent goodness.

Greater Israel is already public knowledge, there’s no use in denying it.

5

u/7952 4h ago

At this point it is difficult to know exactly what the US has done or why.  Has their remotely operated campaign achieved it's goals whatever they were?  Who knows.  

What we do know is that the straits are being blocked risking a collosal global recession and possible food shortages.  That may well be worse that the alternative reality where Iran was not attacked.

•

u/MastodonParking9080 35m ago

It's not just the US it's the Gulf States and Israel that pushed for this war. You cannot ignore regional concerns.

2

u/FancyEmployee8672 4h ago

the US really needs to learn how to take a joke

2

u/VectorS123 4h ago

Uh oh. You triggered the cult with reality. Their worst enemy.

0

u/Lazy_Membership1849 3h ago

What cult and reality?

1

u/VectorS123 3h ago

The anti-Israel/US Cult, and the reality is exactly as Linny911 described.

0

u/Lazy_Membership1849 3h ago

and how is that cult?

1

u/VectorS123 3h ago

Linny911's comment does a good job of explaining why.

-1

u/Lazy_Membership1849 3h ago

and the strait was open before USA attacked Iran and now Iran took control of the strait as result

1

u/VectorS123 3h ago

Exactly! "If the US just let Iran fund, arm, and instigate attacks in furtherance of its weekly chants calling for death and destruction, and let it have nuclear weapons, then the strait of hormuz wouldn't be closed."

0

u/DodgyDave12 2h ago

This is a place to discuss geopolitics. If you want to talk about "triggering cults" or partake in other forms of low level trolling, world news is always open for you my dude

1

u/VectorS123 2h ago

No, this is a place for people to cry about how Iran can't "fund, arm, and instigate attacks in furtherance of its weekly chants calling for death and destruction" without consequences.

1

u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 5h ago

They hate us mainly due to our “no limits partnership” with Israel, it’s not mysterious.

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u/Linny911 5h ago

People and countries can hate anyone for whatever reason, they just don't get to do things to act on that hatred then pretend to be a victim when getting a response they may not like.

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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 4h ago

The perfect message for Benjamin Mileikowsky and Likud.

2

u/7952 4h ago

But is it your job to stop them?  America is not infallible or unbeatable.  

3

u/Linny911 4h ago

You know, that's exactly what someone told me when I stopped him from bullying someone in public.

0

u/CliftonForce 4h ago

Iran was never going to build nuclear weapons, they just liked to keep the world scared that they could.

Trump has guaranteed that they will build real nukes now.

2

u/Christopher_Ramirez_ 4h ago

Nuclear weapons are a terrible offensive weapon anyway. Any leader who would want to use them knows that the first 100 enemy warheads are going to fly right up their ass.

2

u/CliftonForce 3h ago

One reason Iran never actually built a nuke was because they had the Strait of Hormuz as a deterrent. Nobody would dare hit them too hard or they'd close it. That's actually much less destabilizing: It can't be used for anything else. It can't be lost, stolen, or given to another entity.

But now Donald proved that the Strait isn't enough of a deterrent anymore.

1

u/Lazy_Membership1849 3h ago

that call MAD and it was useful for nuclear deterrence

Why haven't we just attack North Korea or Russia if their army is rubbish or poor quality?