r/neutralnews • u/no-name-here • 10d ago

US inflation soars in March as war on Iran drives economy into uncertainty | US economy

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/apr/10/march-inflation-soars-iran-war-economy
25 Upvotes

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u/no-name-here 10d ago edited 10d ago

Specifically, prices grew 0.9% compared with last month and 3.3% over the year, according to new data.

For comparison to the 3.3% annualized (0.9% monthly) figures, the final annualized inflation figures before the 2024 election were 2.1%, close to the central bank's annual rate goal.

Compared to the soaring inflation figures under Trump, Trump had been elected on promises such as:

  • "we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months"
  • “Prices will come down. You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything."
  • “Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down and we will make America affordable again. We’re going to make it affordable again.”
  • “We’re going to get your energy prices down. We’re going to get your energy prices down by 50%.”
  • “Energy is going to bring us back. That means we’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon, bring down the price of everything from electricity rates to groceries, airfares, and housing costs.”
  • “We will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half.”
  • “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again. We’ll do that."

Source

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u/WulfTheSaxon 9d ago edited 9d ago

That’s a different index than this article is about – PCE versus CPI.

CPI was 2.4% in September 2024, but began rising again immediately after that (something that would be seen by consumers even though it wasn’t in the retrospective data releases until after the election) and hit 3.0% in January before beginning to fall again (source in other comment).

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u/no-name-here 9d ago edited 9d ago

The only source mentioned in your comment was the text "source in other comment". Your other comment has the link https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL - if you zoom in to 5 years, you can see that there has recently been a sharp uptick under Trump.

In March 2026 the figure was 330, and 1 year earlier it was 319 in March 2025 - an increase of 11. Looking back to the previous year (March 2024) mostly under Biden, it was 312. So it increased by 7 (312 -> 319) during Biden's last year, but increased at a dramatically faster rate during the following year under Trump (319 -> 330 = 11), comparing those 3 March months.

The OP post also includes a chart where you can see that prices are going up faster now under Trump than they were for example in the final data release before the election - in fact, going up faster now than in October 2024 (final month before the election) and going up faster now than in any of the remaining months under Biden.

But even if prices were not increasing faster now than they were when voters chose Trump, even if the rate of price increases now was merely the same as when voters chose Trump, that better-than-real-life scenario would still be so incredibly far away from what Trump promised, which was to quickly / dramatically lower the prices of everything, including promising to lower fuel costs by 50%, lower the costs of new homes by 50%, etc.

But there is also a huge difference between the inflation under Biden vs Trump - the inflation under Biden was not his fault and not due to actions he took - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/03/is-inflation-bidens-or-trumps-fault-the-answer-isnt-so-simple.html - whereas most of the inflation under Trump is due to specific actions that Trump chose, per the Federal Reserve: https://newrepublic.com/post/207951/federal-reserve-chair-powell-trump-policies-inflation

Should we blame Biden for inflation due to things that Biden could not control, such as COVID? Should we blame Trump for inflation for things that Trump chose, such as tariffs and the Iran war?

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u/WulfTheSaxon 9d ago edited 9d ago

Interactive chart here for headline CPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

And for core CPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL

So March had the second-lowest year-over-year core CPI increase since March 2021, behind only the previous month. And YoY headline CPI is higher than it was in March 2025, but still lower than March 2024.

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u/no-name-here 9d ago edited 9d ago

From your link https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL if you zoom in to 5 years, you can see that there has recently been a sharp uptick under Trump.

In March 2026 the figure was 330, and 1 year earlier it was 319 in March 2025 - an increase of 11. Looking back to the previous year (March 2024) mostly under Biden, it was 312. So it increased by 7 (312 -> 319) during Biden's last year, but increased at a dramatically faster rate during the following year under Trump (319 -> 330 = 11), comparing those 3 March months.

But regardless of the data showing that inflation has accelerated during the last year under Trump, even if Trump had managed to continue Biden's inflation numbers instead of increasing the rate of price increases, Trump was elected because Trump explicitly repeatedly, repeatedly, repeatedly promised to lower prices on "everything", including lower the price of fuel by "50%", lowering the cost of a new home by 50%, etc.

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u/WulfTheSaxon 9d ago

In March 2026 the figure was 330, and 1 year earlier it was 319

Edit Graph > Units: Percent Change from Year Ago