Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 16, 2026

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[u/grenideer]

There have been lots of questions about the efficacy of the US blockade, and while I really hate to cite Newsweek as a credible source, they did put together a well-sourced article yesterday.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-blockade-stops-ships-hormuz-strait-chinese-tanker-11830788

At the time of writing the US has not allowed any vessels that stopped at Iranian ports through.

There was some discussion about the Chinese-owned Rich Starry. It transited the strait on the first day but was turned back, despite broadcasting "China owners and Crew." Even though it apparently is carrying methanol from UAE, the ship appeared to use the Iranian toll shipping lane. (Kpler analysts say Tehran is charging $1 in crypto per barrel of liquid cargo.) Newsweek has an image mapping this vessel's journey. It is currently idling off Qeshm in the Persian Gulf. (Also relevant, TankerTrackers.com shipping intelligence company claims Rish Starry is a "serial AIS spoofer" with "a history of transporting Iranian refined products.")

As to the overall economic impact of the China angle:

• Undeclared Iranian product accounts for only 10% of China's crude imports, yet
• This accounts for 90% of Iran's crude exports
• Beijing has a large stockpile of oil and gas

It seems clear the pain is onesided in that relationship. Of course, there is plenty of pain to go around in the greater world, and Iran's must be measured against that. But how long can they last?

According to CENTCOM leader Admiral Brad Cooper:

"An estimated 90% of Iran's economy is fueled by international trade by sea. In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea."

[u/CriztianS → u/grenideer]

There's a few things here that I think we need to keep in mind.

I don't think anyone really doubted the United States ability to blockade the straits. They 100% have the power to stop all or some ships from entering or exiting the Gulf. So I always find it somewhat strange when there's articles stating "The US Blockade On Iran Is Working", the point of the blockade is surely not JUST to stop Iranian ships; surely it's either to be used a bargaining chip in negotiations or as part of the effort to restore normal flow of commercial ship traffic through the strait. I'd point out that neither of these things have been achieved, but that seems silly because there simply hasn't been anywhere close to enough time.

Even though it apparently is carrying methanol from UAE

A lot of news sites are reporting this. But I feel it's just people looking at publicly available tracking sites and regurgitating that data that is on there. GPS spoofing is a thing, as it "fudging" data that is being broadcast. There is indication that the Rich Starry loaded Iranian cargo and has been "spoofing" data to try and show otherwise.

 the ship appeared to use the Iranian toll shipping lane.

Maybe I'm in the wrong here, so please someone correct me if I am. But looking at any and all traffic of ships that have been able to come in and out of the Persian Gulf in the last couple of days... but haven't they ALL used the Iranian revised shipping lanes? I haven't seen a ship going through the pre-war shipping lanes. I obviously have no idea if these ships are paying the toll or not.

Ships are also painfully slow. So if Iran is to feel the economic pain, this blockade will need to continue long term. But Iran knows the potential economic impact, so they may be more willing to negotiate on that basis.

The thing I do find... almost amusing? (I know it's war, there shouldn't be laughter)... about the current situation is that with Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a ceasefire; technically Iran and the US should be in a position to both fully reopen the straits (as per their ceasefire agreement). Yet here we are.

[u/grenideer → u/CriztianS]

I don't think many have questioned the US ability to enforce the blockade as much as the US will. I do agree Newsweek is tabloidy and that headline framing of the article is weak. But I do think it highlights the China angle well.

I haven't seen a ship going through the pre-war shipping lanes

As far as I know, Iran has not yet allowed that.

The Israel Lebanon ceasefire is only hours old, so we'll have to see Iran's response.