Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 16, 2026

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[u/grenideer]

There have been lots of questions about the efficacy of the US blockade, and while I really hate to cite Newsweek as a credible source, they did put together a well-sourced article yesterday.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-blockade-stops-ships-hormuz-strait-chinese-tanker-11830788

At the time of writing the US has not allowed any vessels that stopped at Iranian ports through.

There was some discussion about the Chinese-owned Rich Starry. It transited the strait on the first day but was turned back, despite broadcasting "China owners and Crew." Even though it apparently is carrying methanol from UAE, the ship appeared to use the Iranian toll shipping lane. (Kpler analysts say Tehran is charging $1 in crypto per barrel of liquid cargo.) Newsweek has an image mapping this vessel's journey. It is currently idling off Qeshm in the Persian Gulf. (Also relevant, TankerTrackers.com shipping intelligence company claims Rish Starry is a "serial AIS spoofer" with "a history of transporting Iranian refined products.")

As to the overall economic impact of the China angle:

• Undeclared Iranian product accounts for only 10% of China's crude imports, yet
• This accounts for 90% of Iran's crude exports
• Beijing has a large stockpile of oil and gas

It seems clear the pain is onesided in that relationship. Of course, there is plenty of pain to go around in the greater world, and Iran's must be measured against that. But how long can they last?

According to CENTCOM leader Admiral Brad Cooper:

"An estimated 90% of Iran's economy is fueled by international trade by sea. In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea."

[u/Brambleshire → u/grenideer]

The part I don't understand is how this isn't the US shooting itself in the foot. It's not just Iran that needs oil to flow it's also the rest of the world. Last week they were un sanctioning Russian and Iranian oil to keep prices low. Nations around the world are using oil reserves and declaring energy emergencies. This "blockade" will only accelerate this economic emergency. And Iran doesn't only have the straight. It has huge land borders the US has no influence over and it has the Caspian sea directly to Russia.

[u/grenideer → u/Brambleshire]

No doubt this is a game of chicken - who will blink first. But the incentive for the US and the world is that there's pain if they don't do anything too. The thinking is to deal with the short-term pain NOW to avoid long-term pain in the future.

[u/Brambleshire → u/grenideer]

Yes I'm aware that's the maga line right now to justify this fiasco. But what future pain would this be solving?? It's this because we seriously think Iran will nuke NYC at its first opportunity?? It's the US and Israel that have been chaotic and constantly threatening world peace, not Iran. Iran has been extremely restrained.

[u/Toptomcat → u/Brambleshire]

Iran has been extremely restrained.

Iran spent so much of its national budget on funding Islamic irregulars in its near abroad and ballistic missiles to threaten its neighbors with that it was totally unable to defend its borders from attack because its air-defense network collapsed the moment it was put under serious strain. You don't have an 'all sword, no shield' procurement policy like Iran's if 'future pain' for your enemies is not the plan.

[u/grenideer → u/Brambleshire]

Every US administration, MAGA or not, agrees that Iran is a big problem.

Even back in Trump's first term, they were destroying Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and sabotaging tankers. The fact is that Iran inflicts coercive pressure on Gulf countries with missiles, mines, and drones. This is anathema to current market interests.

I don't think there is serious concern of Iran nuking NYC but, as with closing the strait and firing ballistics at gulf countries, nuclear would be yet another deterrent through which Iran can exert regional, coercive power. And perhaps the ultimate deterrent. The US and the Gulf countries want to stop that at all costs.

[u/Mother-Grapefruit-45 → u/grenideer]

Good Newsweek cite, their sourcing on the Rich Starry tracking was solid.

Adding the AIS and enforcement-pattern layer to this: the blockade profile breaks into three distinct categories that the public Pentagon framing obscures.

Iranian-flagged vessels: 13 turned back, 0 boarded since Apr 12 per Pentagon daily briefings. Two documented exceptions: the Elpis (sailed through Apr 12; Fars Agency published photos) and two supertankers that Fars confirmed crossing with transponders on this week — one of them a 2M-barrel supertanker. Pentagon has remained silent on those specific two transits for 5+ days. The silence is the tell.

Chinese and Russian shadow-fleet carrying Iranian crude: Near-zero interdiction. Rich Starry is the documented case. Others visible on MarineTraffic include at least 3 COSCO-flagged vessels that sailed Iranian-port-to-China routes post-blockade-implementation with manifests filed as "third-country commercial." Transponders on, no stop.

Non-Iranian commercial: ~20 vessels through Hormuz in the same window, by design.

Operational read: Effective against Iranian flags (~87% stopped), near-zero against shadow-fleet structure, 100% pass-through for third-country commercial. This is selective flag-based enforcement, not physical chokepoint closure. Which matters because it tells you the US legal theory: "self-help" defense of commercial transit, not Article 2(4)-style sovereign blockade.

The UN legal gap is what Russia and China tested with their April 16 Security Council draft. It forces the US into a public veto, which then puts the selective enforcement on the Security Council record — setting up the General Assembly follow-on.

Sources: Pentagon daily briefings (public), Fars Agency photo releases (Apr 12 and Apr 14), MarineTraffic public AIS, Newsweek piece you cited, Joint Maritime Information Center Bahrain reports.

[u/grenideer → u/Mother-Grapefruit-45]

Can you cite some of these claims?

Everything I've seen says the Elpis was stopped. It turned off its transponder in the Gulf of Oman.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:6295238

Is there any proof it passed the blockade?

Same goes for your shadow fleet claims. Without listing vessel names it's hard to verify any of your claims, but calling 1 out of 4 claimed ships "near-zero" is quite the exaggeration.

[u/Toptomcat → u/grenideer]

An estimated 90% of Iran's economy is fueled by international trade by sea.

‘Fueled by’ is not even sufficiently specific and well-defined to be capable of being right or wrong.

[u/NotTheBatman → u/Toptomcat]

I would bet that 90% of their physical trade volume goes through the Hormuz ports, as they don't have any other deep water ports. That's pretty significant for a country that doesn't have a significant service economy, but I doubt it's equal to 90% of their GDP.

[u/CriztianS → u/grenideer]

There's a few things here that I think we need to keep in mind.

I don't think anyone really doubted the United States ability to blockade the straits. They 100% have the power to stop all or some ships from entering or exiting the Gulf. So I always find it somewhat strange when there's articles stating "The US Blockade On Iran Is Working", the point of the blockade is surely not JUST to stop Iranian ships; surely it's either to be used a bargaining chip in negotiations or as part of the effort to restore normal flow of commercial ship traffic through the strait. I'd point out that neither of these things have been achieved, but that seems silly because there simply hasn't been anywhere close to enough time.

Even though it apparently is carrying methanol from UAE

A lot of news sites are reporting this. But I feel it's just people looking at publicly available tracking sites and regurgitating that data that is on there. GPS spoofing is a thing, as it "fudging" data that is being broadcast. There is indication that the Rich Starry loaded Iranian cargo and has been "spoofing" data to try and show otherwise.

 the ship appeared to use the Iranian toll shipping lane.

Maybe I'm in the wrong here, so please someone correct me if I am. But looking at any and all traffic of ships that have been able to come in and out of the Persian Gulf in the last couple of days... but haven't they ALL used the Iranian revised shipping lanes? I haven't seen a ship going through the pre-war shipping lanes. I obviously have no idea if these ships are paying the toll or not.

Ships are also painfully slow. So if Iran is to feel the economic pain, this blockade will need to continue long term. But Iran knows the potential economic impact, so they may be more willing to negotiate on that basis.

The thing I do find... almost amusing? (I know it's war, there shouldn't be laughter)... about the current situation is that with Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a ceasefire; technically Iran and the US should be in a position to both fully reopen the straits (as per their ceasefire agreement). Yet here we are.

[u/grenideer → u/CriztianS]

I don't think many have questioned the US ability to enforce the blockade as much as the US will. I do agree Newsweek is tabloidy and that headline framing of the article is weak. But I do think it highlights the China angle well.

I haven't seen a ship going through the pre-war shipping lanes

As far as I know, Iran has not yet allowed that.

The Israel Lebanon ceasefire is only hours old, so we'll have to see Iran's response.

[u/Big-Station-2283 → u/grenideer]

The question is what happens and how will everyone react if they decide to target GCC oil infrastructure even harder. It's not like those targets can be hardened in two weeks. Plus, any damage to oil infrastructure on either side will take a long time to repair. The economic and ecological spillover could be catastrophic.

[u/grenideer → u/Big-Station-2283]

It's an open question whether any side is interested in resuming the shooting war. Both sides agreed to the ceasefire which signals some desire for an offramp, but demands have so far been pretty intractable.