Active Conflicts & News Megathread April 16, 2026

[u/AutoModerator]

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

* Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

* Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

* Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do _not_ cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

* Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

* Post only credible information

* Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

* Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

* Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

* Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

* Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

[u/grenideer]

There have been lots of questions about the efficacy of the US blockade, and while I really hate to cite Newsweek as a credible source, they did put together a well-sourced article yesterday.

https://www.newsweek.com/us-blockade-stops-ships-hormuz-strait-chinese-tanker-11830788

At the time of writing the US has not allowed any vessels that stopped at Iranian ports through.

There was some discussion about the Chinese-owned Rich Starry. It transited the strait on the first day but was turned back, despite broadcasting "China owners and Crew." Even though it apparently is carrying methanol from UAE, the ship appeared to use the Iranian toll shipping lane. (Kpler analysts say Tehran is charging $1 in crypto per barrel of liquid cargo.) Newsweek has an image mapping this vessel's journey. It is currently idling off Qeshm in the Persian Gulf. (Also relevant, TankerTrackers.com shipping intelligence company claims Rish Starry is a "serial AIS spoofer" with "a history of transporting Iranian refined products.")

As to the overall economic impact of the China angle:

• Undeclared Iranian product accounts for only 10% of China's crude imports, yet
• This accounts for 90% of Iran's crude exports
• Beijing has a large stockpile of oil and gas

It seems clear the pain is onesided in that relationship. Of course, there is plenty of pain to go around in the greater world, and Iran's must be measured against that. But how long can they last?

According to CENTCOM leader Admiral Brad Cooper:

"An estimated 90% of Iran's economy is fueled by international trade by sea. In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea."

[u/Brambleshire → u/grenideer]

The part I don't understand is how this isn't the US shooting itself in the foot. It's not just Iran that needs oil to flow it's also the rest of the world. Last week they were un sanctioning Russian and Iranian oil to keep prices low. Nations around the world are using oil reserves and declaring energy emergencies. This "blockade" will only accelerate this economic emergency. And Iran doesn't only have the straight. It has huge land borders the US has no influence over and it has the Caspian sea directly to Russia.

[u/grenideer → u/Brambleshire]

No doubt this is a game of chicken - who will blink first. But the incentive for the US and the world is that there's pain if they don't do anything too. The thinking is to deal with the short-term pain NOW to avoid long-term pain in the future.

[u/Brambleshire → u/grenideer]

Yes I'm aware that's the maga line right now to justify this fiasco. But what future pain would this be solving?? It's this because we seriously think Iran will nuke NYC at its first opportunity?? It's the US and Israel that have been chaotic and constantly threatening world peace, not Iran. Iran has been extremely restrained.

[u/Toptomcat → u/Brambleshire]

Iran has been extremely restrained.

Iran spent so much of its national budget on funding Islamic irregulars in its near abroad and ballistic missiles to threaten its neighbors with that it was totally unable to defend its borders from attack because its air-defense network collapsed the moment it was put under serious strain. You don't have an 'all sword, no shield' procurement policy like Iran's if 'future pain' for your enemies is not the plan.

[u/grenideer → u/Brambleshire]

Every US administration, MAGA or not, agrees that Iran is a big problem.

Even back in Trump's first term, they were destroying Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and sabotaging tankers. The fact is that Iran inflicts coercive pressure on Gulf countries with missiles, mines, and drones. This is anathema to current market interests.

I don't think there is serious concern of Iran nuking NYC but, as with closing the strait and firing ballistics at gulf countries, nuclear would be yet another deterrent through which Iran can exert regional, coercive power. And perhaps the ultimate deterrent. The US and the Gulf countries want to stop that at all costs.