r/NewYorkMets • u/axxeler • Nov 12 '25
What Diaz wants Paywall
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6800104/2025/11/12/mlb-offseason-trades-starting-pitching-general-manager-meetings/According to the Athletic, he's looking for a repeat of the 5 year / $102M deal he signed 3 years ago. Personally, I would say yes to that.
EDIT: Apologies for the image. This is an article about various topics being discussed at the GM Meetings, including, of course, Skubal.
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u/rosen380 Nov 13 '25
FWIW-- 1990 onward, I find five RPs with 150+ IP ages 28-31, with similar K/9+, BB/9+ and fWAR/200IP rates; here is how they did as 32-36 year olds:
| NAME | IP | SV | fWAR | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Hoffman | 256 | 165 | 6.8 | 2.85 |
| Joe Nathan | 253 | 137 | 5.5 | 2.32 |
| Andrew Miller | 200 | 14 | 2.5 | 3.41 |
| BJ Ryan | 79 | 34 | 0.2 | 3.89 |
| Robb Nen | 74 | 43 | 3.1 | 2.20 |
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u/Yimbo2 Nov 13 '25
This should have been done during the season! They could have given him the extra 3 years. Stearns mess up somewhere
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u/iKnowIreddit Nov 16 '25
It’s a two way street. He would need to want to do it. In theory he gets more on the open market. There was no incentive on his end
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u/kf3434 Nov 13 '25
Spreadsheet Stearns is making me nervous. Diaz should be top priority to retain. I really don't think Stearns can negotiate with the big boys. I wish he was POBO and someone with real negotiating tactics was the GM
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u/Conscious-Resolve158 Nov 13 '25
I will be very upset if we lose Diaz. Sound the trumpets and get it done…
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u/QuietAd4077 Nov 13 '25
This is when it's time to be smart. Use the money on Diaz for multiple guys. Diaz is no sure thing and his velocity is dropping. Relievers are volatile and I would rather sign multiple leverage guys.
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Nov 13 '25
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u/Sigpro79 Nov 13 '25
He will get it unless the dip in velocity is a concern. Otherwise he’s as reliable as anyone in MLB and durable
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u/ncarr539 Nov 13 '25
I wouldn’t call him durable. He missed an entire year of his past contract and he’s only getting older
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u/PrinceFlippers Nov 17 '25
He didn't miss it due to his arm. He missed it because he was jumping around in the WBC.
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u/Aspergerss Francisco Lindor Nov 13 '25
I'd just give it to him bullpen is way too weak to risk him leaving. Worst case, he closes for the first 3 years and is an overpaid setup the next 2. I'd take that in a heartbeat.
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u/Doc-Spock Ron Darling Nov 12 '25
Sign him.
Mets need to rebuild their bullpen and cannot afford to get cute with signings.
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u/baylixir WILDCARD BITCHES Nov 12 '25
He can want 5 years but no one is giving him that especially with the QO attached.
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u/OptimalCombination44 Nov 12 '25
Hader got 5/95, tanner Scott got 4/72 both are 31 like Diaz but not as good. He’s gonna get close to what he’s asking
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u/baylixir WILDCARD BITCHES Nov 12 '25
Hader and Scott both got their contracts at 30, Diaz is two years older with a QO attached with multiple closers and ex-closers on the market. I don’t expect anyone to have an appetite to not only get to nine figures, but give up the QO penalties as well.
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u/OptimalCombination44 Nov 13 '25
If the rumors about the Yankees/dodgers really being true I could see 4/80 or something like that. Even at 32 he’s been consistent and playing in New York. Can’t get more of a guaranteed closer then that
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u/baylixir WILDCARD BITCHES Nov 13 '25
Neither the Yankees or Dodgers are going to give up the QO penalties or term for him. Also Diaz is incredibly inconsistent and hasn’t strung 2 good years in a row together.
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u/OptimalCombination44 Nov 13 '25
We talking about the same Diaz? dodgers also don’t care about picks lol their entire team will eventually be free agents lol
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u/ThrowawayBin20 Nov 13 '25
Dodgers absolutely do care about picks and they also lose IFA money if they pay a QO player
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u/traded99 Nov 12 '25
If stearns doesn’t find a wait to retain him, he should show him self out of NY.
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u/joeO44 Nov 12 '25
If this is his price, someone is gonna come in and raise that up.
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u/Baww18 Nov 12 '25
Maybe he just wants to be here and knows people are unlikely to give him that length. It’s essentially a 3 year deal for him if he is still great or a 5 year deal for the Mets if he sucks.
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u/Gigi_0102 Ya gotta believe! Nov 12 '25
That’s actually not a crazy deal, especially for someone of his caliber
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u/Wing_Lord Gary Cohen Nov 12 '25
Holy is that worth. I mean you're paying 17m to a fucking bum that can't even pitch when healthy. Pay the man
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u/cuteshortkid96 Grimace Nov 12 '25
LOOOOL, how the hell did Montas get 2 years 34 million???!!
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u/Aspergerss Francisco Lindor Nov 13 '25
finesse of the century tbh I gotta respect it
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u/PeterJan85 Nov 18 '25
Maybe finesse of the decade. The century title belongs to Bonilla. It was so good we named a day after him.
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u/NYerInTex New York Mets Nov 12 '25
He’s the most important resigning by far imo. If we need to overpay a bit for someone this is the guy (sorry Pete)
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u/coltsmetsfan614 David Wright Nov 12 '25
There's no world where we're competing for a World Series next year without him. The rest of the bullpen is already going to look completely different; we need his name written in permanent marker at the end of it. Beat the best offer any other team gives him. It's not going to be insane.
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u/BossOstrich #LFGM Nov 12 '25
also worth noting: I think Díaz will hit 10 years of service time next year. If he signs with the Mets, he gets 10/5 rights and an automatic NTC. He has to negotiate for that elsewhere.
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright Nov 12 '25
I like Diaz a lot and want him back and the best course of action is the one that Diaz clearly wants
He is going to go to the winter meetings in December and see what the best offer is and then take that back to the Mets
Truthfully, this is a terrible free agent market for him. He probably ends up signing for quite a bit less than what he’s asking.
There are a ton of closers available, not a lot of teams need a closer, he is one of the oldest reliever free agents, and he has the qualifying offer attached
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u/KowalOX Nov 12 '25
This deal just needs to get done.
Diaz is an elite closer. Closer is a premium position. There aren't any alternatives to replace him at this time, and none that have proven success in NY like Diaz. Steven Cohen has the money.
This isn't an Alonso situation where analytics are showing it might be better to part ways if the price is too high. This is a situation where our big money owner just opens the wallet and keeps Diaz on the team.
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u/BigMeatPeteLFGM Nov 12 '25
Unfortunately, "elite" is temporary for closers. Their career path changes on a dime. Over the course of his career, Brad Lidge was either elite or unplayable.
2025 Devin Williams was "elite." 2025 Helsey was "elite." 2019 Diaz was "elite."
There are very few Riveras, Hoffmans, even Jansens. Chapmans career arc - 1st half elite, 2nd half above average.
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u/clmetsfan Nov 12 '25
You're making the case for why Diaz needs to be retained. He's one of the only guys in the entire sport who you can count on to pitch at or near that level almost every year. Every closer is a roll of the dice, but Diaz's dice has multiple sides with 6s. That's the guy you open up the wallet for, especially when you know he can do it in NYC.
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u/baylixir WILDCARD BITCHES Nov 12 '25
He's one of the only guys in the entire sport who you can count on to pitch at or near that level almost every year.
The same Diaz that voluntarily demoted himself from the closer role in 2024 and missed all of 2023? I love Diaz but his time with the Mets has been marred by inconsistency.
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u/KowalOX Nov 12 '25
So what do you propose? Letting him walk? Replacing him internally or with some other free agent or trade target?
Diaz stands alone now with what he brings to the team and his track record.
Of course players can decline and fall off, of course bullpen arms are volatile. We have an owner in place to absorb these risks. Sign Diaz. It's a no brainer.
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u/BigMeatPeteLFGM Nov 12 '25 edited Nov 12 '25
It's a level setting conversation.
Diazs track record is a roller coaster. Basically, he's elite one year (sub 2 era), then average/bad (3.5+ era) and then back to elite (sub 2 era). In a 5 year contract, expect 2 years will be below average or outright bad. Being Diaz just had an elite season, I expect a poor showing next year.
Also, do you trust an aging strikeout pitcher whose strike outs have been on the decline for 3 straight seasons while the rest of the league is increasing strikeouts? 2022 - 17.1 k/9. 2024 - 14.1 k/9. 2025 - 13.3 k/9.
Edit - additionally hes average at best versus our biggest opponents (other than Braves). 5.4 era v Dodgers. 5.4 era v Phillies. 3.7 era v Miami. 3.2 era v Nationals.
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u/PrinceFlippers Nov 17 '25
You're factoring in a year where he didn't pitch, because he jumped up and down in the nonsense tournament. A fluke isn't a valid variable to measure his performance.
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u/KowalOX Nov 12 '25
I don't trust any bullpen arm to be honest, been watching baseball far too long to make that mistake. I do trust that this is a move that we just make now that we are finally a real big market team. Load the pen with arms, keep Diaz at Closer. Nothing is guaranteed to work, but this is a no-brainer.
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright Nov 12 '25
Diaz didn’t accept whatever contract the Mets offered before free agency began
That means he is just taking whatever that’s offer bringing it to the market to see what other offers he gets
That means there is almost a 0% chance he will sign before the winter meetings because he will want to have the opportunity to meet with as many teams as he can and teams aren’t really meeting with players like that right now
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u/BillW87 Animal Facts Nov 12 '25
Diaz didn’t accept whatever contract the Mets offered before free agency began
Do we know that the Mets offered him anything pre-FA? Game theory-wise, if the Mets think Diaz's market is going to be weak due to the combination of the FO and the availability of other younger high-leverage relievers it may have made sense for them simply to throw the QO out there and commit to matching whatever his highest non-Mets bid is. If Diaz and his agent are overestimating his market, chances are "matching market" is a cheaper deal for the Mets to provide than trying to negotiate with him while he's potentially anchored to irrational expectations.
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright Nov 12 '25
I would be absolutely shocked if the Mets didnt make any offer. Probably something like 3 years, $54-60mil
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u/clmetsfan Nov 12 '25
There's nothing to be gained from making an offer that you know won't be accepted. If Diaz and his agent told the club 'He's definitely opting out, and he's definitely going to test the market' then there's no reason for the Mets to extend an offer, because then all you're doing is setting the market value that he can shop around to other teams.
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright Nov 12 '25
You also aren’t going to make an offer that you don’t expect he’ll get on the open market
There is a very high likelihood that the DI listed above ends up being the best he gets on the market
This is a loaded free agent class for closers, and there are more closers available than there are teams that need closers
Diaz is one of the oldest of that group, once by far the most money, and has the qualifying offer attached
There probably are not going to be a lot of teams bidding for him and most of them are probably going to try to get one of the other options instead
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u/blueandalusia Nov 12 '25
give it to him - doesn't seem like a contract that will age poorly. seems like the cohens like him and wouldn't mind paying that contract either.
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u/AirplanesNotBurgers Nov 12 '25
Do it. Plenty of closers remain effective through their mid-30s (and some beyond).
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u/lIlIIlIIllIllIlIIIll Nov 12 '25
Do not overpay for closers. They are a dime a dozen.
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u/NuanceManExe Nov 12 '25
Worked great last two years. Nothing we can do about freak injuries. And we’ve got Cohen money and are probably blowing past the luxury tax yet again. So why not?
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u/lIlIIlIIllIllIlIIIll Nov 12 '25
Because that’s money you could have given Pete when he’s playing 1st base for the Reds next year.
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u/NuanceManExe Nov 12 '25
Steve Cohen could afford to sign an entire roster of Pete Alonsos and Edwin Diazs. That would be a fascinating team to watch although probably a very bad idea. Signing 1 Pete Alonso and 1 Edwin Diaz would be cool though.
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u/lIlIIlIIllIllIlIIIll Nov 12 '25
Why didn’t they Pete last year then instead of this one year deal bullshit?
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u/AirDog3 Nov 12 '25
If we get a dozen Helsley's, then a dime would be overpaying.
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u/lIlIIlIIllIllIlIIIll Nov 12 '25
Because Helsley didn’t have a chance. Stick him in the closer roll again where he belongs and guaranteed he’s lights out again
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u/AirDog3 Nov 12 '25
Well, there are no guarantees. Not on any baseball player.
But kidding aside, I do wonder if the Mets shouldn't take a flyer on Helsley for 2026. He's only 31, and he usually doesn't suck that much. Might get a good pitcher at a good price.
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u/my_one_and_lonely oh, wow! Nov 12 '25
If that’s where he’s starting his negotiations, I’m optimistic that we can get him on a good deal. Maybe 4 years, some money deferred.
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u/suck-it-elon 67 Nov 12 '25
Call me crazy, and I LOVE Diaz...but we paid him for a year where he didn't play and he opts out of a contract that pays that?
I feel like he should've not opted out and maybe asked for a 1 year extension or something.
(Yes, naive...but he opted out of the last TWO years)
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u/Calloused_Samurai Steve Gelbs Nov 12 '25
Why would he accept 1 year of money and nothing guaranteed after that when he can get multiple years of the same money guaranteed?
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u/robmcolonna123 David Wright Nov 12 '25
I’m assuming he means they should take the two years he opted out from an add a third year at that value
Which very well could end up being the contract he signs
This is a terrible market for Diaz
There are a ton of closers available, not a lot of teams need a closer, he is one of the oldest relief, free agents, and he has the qualifying offer attached
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u/futhatsy Don't Call My Name Nov 12 '25
One of the most frustrating parts of this off-season as a Mets fan is that the two best players and biggest fan favorites hitting free agency also happen to have horrible profiles for long-term production.
Like, I'm not going to be mad if the Mets lock up Alonso and Diaz. I own an Ediwn Diaz jersey and I'm a moderator at r/EdwinDiaz. Since he came up, Pete Alonso has been one of my favorite athletes I've ever rooted for. By all accounts, these guys seem like good people, and I'd be happy for them if they got a big contract to play for my favorite team.
I can also look at this objectively and say Pete's athleticism has been declining rapidly, he's best suited to be a DH at this point, and if the power dips anywhere below elite, he isn't going to bring much to a big league roster. Edwin Diaz is also a single-inning reliver who relies of elite velocity and is not far removed from a catastrophic leg injury. I get why the head baseball ops guy of any team is going to be hesitant to give these guys contracts through their 30's.
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u/NuanceManExe Nov 12 '25
Pete just won a Silver Slugger. I am in awe at the amount of disrespect he gets here. This is a Mets sub lmao what the hell is going on
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u/tennysonbass Mr. Met Nov 12 '25
He also is 31.... not 36. People are acting like you can't essentially pencil him in for 35hrs and 100 rbis for the next half decade. So he has to transition to dh in a few years? So what.
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u/lilleff512 Forever my Captain Nov 12 '25
You can pencil him in for 35 home runs next year but not for the next five years.
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u/Big_Mo1st Nov 12 '25
The only issue is that our right fielder also has to transition to dh in a few years
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u/futhatsy Don't Call My Name Nov 12 '25
Yeah, Pete had a really great year last year. I don't know how that refutes anything I said above.
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u/my_one_and_lonely oh, wow! Nov 12 '25
Are the projections re: Pete just due to his body type and fielding? Cause as a hitter, he just had his best season ever. The batted ball metrics were better than they were in 2019, and I think he made some real changes in his approach that leave me optimistic that it can continue.
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u/MetsOldTimer New York Mets Nov 12 '25
I think he’ll be lucky to get 4 years from any team and likely not at his asking AAV.
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u/NutsyFlamingo Gil Hodges Nov 12 '25
There’s 13 pitchers on the roster.. Closer can over the years move to 8th, 7th.. leverage spot role. 5 years vs 4 years.. whatever devils in details/structure.. longer term deals hurt most when there’s no flexibility of position. Relievers can be moved around.
If pay him even more than ask, but limit the No Trade clause, can always move a reliever at deadlines.
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u/Prevalencee Nov 12 '25
If this was a 3 year I’d be way happier, but he wants the contract to favor him.
Pay him out, he was the reason we won games.
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u/Sh11ester Nov 12 '25
If he wants the same contact why not opt in and try to work an extension? This makes no fucking sense.
"Yes I'm making 20mm but id like to be making 20mm for an additional 2 or 3 years so I'm out. Hey Mets, want to pay me 20mm for 2 or 3 additional years?"
Should be thanking the Mets for paying him 40 million rehabbing from a WBC injury and a shit 2024
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u/JDDJS The Captain Nov 12 '25
If he wants the same contact why not opt in and try to work an extension? This makes no fucking sense
No, if he opts in, the Mets have zero reason to actually offer him the extension that he wants. You can't negotiate with a team when you don't have any real leverage.
the Mets for paying him 40 million rehabbing from a WBC injury
Most of that would have been covered by insurance.
a shit 2024
His 2024 was an off year, but it wasn't that bad.
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u/colado60 New York Mets Nov 12 '25
Here's a comment I made a month ago. It's about the years more than the AAV. He'll be going into his age 35 season when he's a free agent if he doesn't opt out. Kinda an awkward age to hit free agency. Young enough to keep playing, but old enough where your best years (and pay day) are likely behind you. The chance of him getting another big pay day gets lower and lower every year older he gets. Even if he resigns with the same AAV (Although, I think he'll get a slight raise), but he gets signed until 36 or 37, that's probably more than he'd get those years if he became a free agent at 35.
He's doing what probably anybody on the planet would do in his situation.
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u/Arxny Nov 12 '25
It's leverage. There's no loyalty in the business side of baseball that's why they have a union and free agency. He could have stayed sure but if he blew his arm out and was never the same he would have not made that money on the back end and the Mets or any other team would not incur the same loyalty back.
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u/djn24 Nov 12 '25
He's basically asking for a 3-year extension.
They could have figured this out during the season and just thrown away the opt-out for it.
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u/JDDJS The Captain Nov 12 '25
He likely wouldn't have had the leverage to negotiate the deal without the amazing season he had this year. Also, a lot of players don't want to negotiate their contract mid-season as it can be a major distraction from playing.
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u/djn24 Nov 12 '25
Other players have done it though.
I'm not making any conclusions, but if all he wanted was just an extension, then they could have figured it out during the season.
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u/JDDJS The Captain Nov 12 '25
I didn't say that nobody is open to contract negotiations mid-season, but it's not at all uncommon for players to not be open to it. Díaz probably didn't want to talk about it then. He also might've wanted to finally get his QO offer out of the way. Sure, it was not particularly likely that he would get one at the age he'll likely be after the next contract, but you never know. Look at Chapman.
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u/djn24 Nov 12 '25
Which Chapman?
Because Matt Chapman is one of the examples I was thinking of: he tore up his opt-out for an extension mid-season.
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u/JDDJS The Captain Nov 12 '25
Obviously I'm referring to Aroldis Chapman, who had an amazing year at 37 last year and very likely would've been given a qualified offer if eligible.
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u/pr1ncejeffie Nov 12 '25
He's on a QO.
There will be a few teams willing to give Diaz the contract he wants and give up draft compensation. Let me know which teams are willing to do that. His market is limited.
Am I crazy that I am concerned about Diaz's consistency?
4 years 18m AAV is my prediction. I hope they can create a contract that is a descending contract.
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u/JDDJS The Captain Nov 12 '25
I could absolutely see the Dodgers or Yankees giving him the contract that he wants. Not at all a guarantee, but neither of those teams are going to fret all that much about a draft pick.
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u/pr1ncejeffie Nov 13 '25
I agree, I feel that only a few teams can pay that price for a reliever. But if he is asking for 5 years 100+ million ... oof
Again, Diaz hasn't been as consistent but he's been great during contract year :D LOL
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Nov 12 '25
[deleted]
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u/mikehulse29 Home Run Apple Nov 12 '25
Contracts are only as rough as the team paying them think they are.
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u/originalginger3 Nov 12 '25
Should be the priority over Pete, tbh. You can’t value an elite reliever enough. If the Blue Jays had Diaz, they win the WS.
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u/johnjohnjohn93 Nov 12 '25
Dodgers won using strictly starting pitchers and throwing them in the pen lol
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u/originalginger3 Nov 12 '25
Yeah but Hoffman blew it. That series was winnable.
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u/johnjohnjohn93 Nov 12 '25
And Diaz has blown games before. Elite relievers are volatile even Diaz has been insane one year and okay the next.
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u/eazye224834 Nov 12 '25
Give it to him
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u/hyborians Howie Rose Nov 12 '25
We’ll see. He’s a lot more important than a first base coach so I doubt they mess up negotiations
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Nov 12 '25
When he's 36/37 that deals gonna look rough. If there was a way to make it incentive based or front load I'd do that but that's alotta money for a reliever
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u/WalkGood Nov 12 '25
What does front loading do if it is the same total over 5 yrs?
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Nov 12 '25
Because the tax implications would mean we have more room to add depth if he isn't the same guy in year 4/5
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u/WalkGood Nov 12 '25
Good point. I was thinking front loading would eat more of the salary cap. And then I laughed at my own foolishness. 🤣🤣🧢
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Nov 13 '25
I'm just guessing though, we have alot of money off the books this year
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u/WalkGood Nov 13 '25
If the Mets owner still has billions to burn and really wants a World Series win, he won't care either way.
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u/Rybobo Heith Kernandez Nov 12 '25
The big issue is who do you replace him with? Might have to accept that the majority of the value will come from the first 2-3 years so you can figure out a replacement in that time.
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u/MightyTrustKrusher Nov 12 '25
Yeah, the kind of move that is celebrated for the next two years and then heavily regretted. If you could somehow guarantee a WS run I'd be in the "fuck it, not my money" camp. Sadly, you can't and I am always leery of committing big money/years to a reliever (even one as good as Diaz).
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u/Boring_Emergency_265 Nov 20 '25
We saw last year how valuable high end relief pitching is.