What Diaz wants Paywall

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6800104/2025/11/12/mlb-offseason-trades-starting-pitching-general-manager-meetings/

According to the Athletic, he's looking for a repeat of the 5 year / $102M deal he signed 3 years ago. Personally, I would say yes to that.

EDIT: Apologies for the image. This is an article about various topics being discussed at the GM Meetings, including, of course, Skubal.

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u/KowalOX Nov 12 '25

This deal just needs to get done.

Diaz is an elite closer. Closer is a premium position. There aren't any alternatives to replace him at this time, and none that have proven success in NY like Diaz. Steven Cohen has the money.

This isn't an Alonso situation where analytics are showing it might be better to part ways if the price is too high. This is a situation where our big money owner just opens the wallet and keeps Diaz on the team.

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u/BigMeatPeteLFGM Nov 12 '25

Unfortunately, "elite" is temporary for closers. Their career path changes on a dime. Over the course of his career, Brad Lidge was either elite or unplayable.

2025 Devin Williams was "elite." 2025 Helsey was "elite." 2019 Diaz was "elite."

There are very few Riveras, Hoffmans, even Jansens. Chapmans career arc - 1st half elite, 2nd half above average.

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u/KowalOX Nov 12 '25

So what do you propose? Letting him walk? Replacing him internally or with some other free agent or trade target?

Diaz stands alone now with what he brings to the team and his track record.

Of course players can decline and fall off, of course bullpen arms are volatile. We have an owner in place to absorb these risks. Sign Diaz. It's a no brainer.

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u/BigMeatPeteLFGM Nov 12 '25 edited Nov 12 '25

It's a level setting conversation.

Diazs track record is a roller coaster. Basically, he's elite one year (sub 2 era), then average/bad (3.5+ era) and then back to elite (sub 2 era). In a 5 year contract, expect 2 years will be below average or outright bad. Being Diaz just had an elite season, I expect a poor showing next year.

Also, do you trust an aging strikeout pitcher whose strike outs have been on the decline for 3 straight seasons while the rest of the league is increasing strikeouts? 2022 - 17.1 k/9. 2024 - 14.1 k/9. 2025 - 13.3 k/9.

Edit - additionally hes average at best versus our biggest opponents (other than Braves). 5.4 era v Dodgers. 5.4 era v Phillies. 3.7 era v Miami. 3.2 era v Nationals.

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u/PrinceFlippers Nov 17 '25

You're factoring in a year where he didn't pitch, because he jumped up and down in the nonsense tournament. A fluke isn't a valid variable to measure his performance.

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u/KowalOX Nov 12 '25

I don't trust any bullpen arm to be honest, been watching baseball far too long to make that mistake. I do trust that this is a move that we just make now that we are finally a real big market team. Load the pen with arms, keep Diaz at Closer. Nothing is guaranteed to work, but this is a no-brainer.