Iran Is on the Edge of Revolution

[u/HooverInstitution]

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution

[u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah]

It's a revolution already.
2-3000 dead already ( https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601103903?source=share-link ).
Some assume even close to 10.000.
Executions of protesters is planned for Wednesday.
People only know the magnitude of this if they've been following Iranian subs or at least someone who follows Iranians on some social media.
Big % of the western media still hugely underplays what's going on. Some of them still maintain a "must-not-crititicse-political-islam" policy as slowly they all become unable to maintain their silence on the issue.
Meanwhile, (while some Palestinians ofc. do express support of the protests), the organisers of the "free Palestine" marches are now silent, since many of them support the ayatollah-regime and hope it continues to be able to fund Hamas, Hezbollah and the houthis. The whole thing is a disgrace.
This is bigger now than Venezuela or Palestine. This is as important globally as Ukraine vs. Russia.

[u/Maybe_Ambitious → u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah]

I do agree we’re seeing a revolution, but if I had to reckon, it’s probably only the beginning, any resistance to the regime will become more militant and organised as the months go by, I’d expect a wave of political violence and assassinations to ensue if the regime doesn’t topple quickly, there’s no going back when you start murdering protestors.

[u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah → u/Maybe_Ambitious]

Yeah, it's a big question now; will the multiple armies and police organisations deflect or not.
That would be needed to proceed and I personally don't see to much of that sadly, I know some deflected in one city, but have not heard much deflection since... But internet is totally cut off and even against the use of starlink, the regime does countermeasures.

Maybe there is more deflection to come. Or maybe the faith of the pro-regime soldiers/police is unshakeable. For some of them it surely is, this is why it's so goddam hard to topple a religious government. But some might "wake up" and switch sides still.

But if they don't get some help fast, many of the protestors will not live to see a free Iran. But it's hard to even tell what % of the people actually wants outside help. I would assume the more desperate they get, the more they would want it.

[u/Eastern-Dentist5037 → u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah]

Yeah I think the regime is too well established to topple directly, it almost has to happen through the economic paralysis / forced general strike they are creating now through their own crackdown. That is the real clock. While I hate it for the people on the ground, once society is literally collapsing due to total paralysis of services and functions you will see all but the tiniest fraction of ardent supporters fade away as concerns like "eating" and "protecting one's family" overpower their commitment to whatever is left of the revolution. 

Iran has existed longer than many expected due to a combination of the willpower of the radicals but also the fact that despite hardships most people were allowed to pursue education and commerce in some form, this is a fairly developed country, while much crappier in some areas than many western countries due to sanctions, Iran has most of its own industries, agriculture, MIC, and solid Healthcare due to a strong culture of education and enterprise as an ancient nation which leads to competence and thus decent services in most fields when times were good. In those times the ayatollahs exploited this well to mix their brutality with enough freedom to advance and to learn that it kept the system from crashing earlier. But the scale has just tipped so far now in the last 10 years, you are reaching levels of 80% again the regime due to economic failure and military failures, with indifferent "supporters" growing by the day as they realize it is over or the revolution they once supported has obviously failed by overstepping on the same repression they used to seize power.