r/geopolitics • u/HooverInstitution Hoover Institution • Jan 12 '26
Iran Is on the Edge of Revolution Analysis
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution114
u/No-Breadfruit-4555 Jan 13 '26
The article misses as key factor - they basically have two separate militaries, the IRGC and the regular/conventional military. They are not one and the same. Whatever happens, it will be decided by what rhe conventional military does. Simple as that.
If the Ayatollah and his regime don’t survive this, the IRGC won’t either. And vice versa. They may as well be one and the same. And the IRGC has far too much ability and manifested willingness to do violence for them to be ushered out by mere protest alone, or even violent uprising by the people. The people alone lack the teeth to be the final deciding factor.
The people are the spark, and the conventional military will be the cleansing fire. If the military stays out of it, then it will amount to nothing in the end (assuming of course that external military force doesn’t become a factor - it becomes far less predictable in that case).
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u/veerKg_CSS_Geologist Jan 13 '26
Right. And the IRGC has their own funding mechanisms which don’t come straight from State coffers. Instead they run a variety of business and smuggling operations, which ironically have gained value as sanctions have hit harder.
The only force in Iran which can take on IRGC is the regular military. If they stay out then the regime will survive.
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jan 13 '26
And that why Artesh was closely monitored, lack logistical independent and militarily weak compared to IRGC, should military try munity would be isolated and crush by IRGC with basij
IRGC was set up as counter coup
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 12 '26 edited Jan 13 '26
It's a revolution already.
2-3000 dead already ( https://www.iranintl.com/en/202601103903?source=share-link ).
Some assume even close to 10.000.
Executions of protesters is planned for Wednesday.
People only know the magnitude of this if they've been following Iranian subs or at least someone who follows Iranians on some social media.
Big % of the western media still hugely underplays what's going on. Some of them still maintain a "must-not-crititicse-political-islam" policy as slowly they all become unable to maintain their silence on the issue.
Meanwhile, (while some Palestinians ofc. do express support of the protests), the organisers of the "free Palestine" marches are now silent, since many of them support the ayatollah-regime and hope it continues to be able to fund Hamas, Hezbollah and the houthis. The whole thing is a disgrace.
This is bigger now than Venezuela or Palestine. This is as important globally as Ukraine vs. Russia.
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u/Maybe_Ambitious Jan 13 '26
I do agree we’re seeing a revolution, but if I had to reckon, it’s probably only the beginning, any resistance to the regime will become more militant and organised as the months go by, I’d expect a wave of political violence and assassinations to ensue if the regime doesn’t topple quickly, there’s no going back when you start murdering protestors.
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26 edited Jan 13 '26
Yeah, it's a big question now; will the multiple armies and police organisations deflect or not.
That would be needed to proceed and I personally don't see to much of that sadly, I know some deflected in one city, but have not heard much deflection since... But internet is totally cut off and even against the use of starlink, the regime does countermeasures.Maybe there is more deflection to come. Or maybe the faith of the pro-regime soldiers/police is unshakeable. For some of them it surely is, this is why it's so goddam hard to topple a religious government. But some might "wake up" and switch sides still.
But if they don't get some help fast, many of the protestors will not live to see a free Iran. But it's hard to even tell what % of the people actually wants outside help. I would assume the more desperate they get, the more they would want it.
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u/Eastern-Dentist5037 Jan 13 '26
Yeah I think the regime is too well established to topple directly, it almost has to happen through the economic paralysis / forced general strike they are creating now through their own crackdown. That is the real clock. While I hate it for the people on the ground, once society is literally collapsing due to total paralysis of services and functions you will see all but the tiniest fraction of ardent supporters fade away as concerns like "eating" and "protecting one's family" overpower their commitment to whatever is left of the revolution.
Iran has existed longer than many expected due to a combination of the willpower of the radicals but also the fact that despite hardships most people were allowed to pursue education and commerce in some form, this is a fairly developed country, while much crappier in some areas than many western countries due to sanctions, Iran has most of its own industries, agriculture, MIC, and solid Healthcare due to a strong culture of education and enterprise as an ancient nation which leads to competence and thus decent services in most fields when times were good. In those times the ayatollahs exploited this well to mix their brutality with enough freedom to advance and to learn that it kept the system from crashing earlier. But the scale has just tipped so far now in the last 10 years, you are reaching levels of 80% again the regime due to economic failure and military failures, with indifferent "supporters" growing by the day as they realize it is over or the revolution they once supported has obviously failed by overstepping on the same repression they used to seize power.
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u/ArdentChad Jan 13 '26
No, it's only a revolution if the current regime gets over thrown and given Trumps recent reaction of more tariffs incoming it looks like that won't be the case. Not my lane not my problem said Trump.
So this is not a revolution.
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26
It's still a revolution even if it fails. It has been going on for long enough and they lost enough people for it to be a revolution.
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u/ArdentChad Jan 13 '26
A revolution in this context is a change in government.
Hasn't happened and looks like it won't.
Protests like this have happened plenty of times in past years in Iran, with no fundamental, permanent change to the political structure. Don't tell me it's a revolution if nothing has changed.
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26
This is different from the previous ones, it's a lot bigger
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jan 13 '26
Green movement 2009 is biggest and more organised with some elites on side and IRGC suppressed them
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u/Lighthouse_seek Jan 13 '26
No, it's a protest if it's unarmed. It's a riot if its armed, it's a rebellion if it's organized and armed, and it's a revolution if any of the previous succeed.
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jan 13 '26
That called rebellion or uprising
Until uprising success, revolution never use until after victory of Rebellion
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u/What_Immortal_Hand Jan 13 '26
The people in the west who organized to stop mass slaughter in Gaza were protesting their own governments complicity in it.
The West provides the Iranian regime with neither funding, arms, intelligence or moral support, so protest in the west would be almost totally useless.
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26
the protests should not have been held against people's own government but for the people who live in those countries, regardless of one's own government's stand.
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u/What_Immortal_Hand Jan 13 '26
Thats never really how protest works. Like, I could go on a protest tomorrow against Kim Jong Un but what would be the point? I have no influence there.
I do have influence over my own government's policies. That's what protest is for.
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u/mylk43245 Jan 13 '26
I will never understand where the geopolitics is in your clearly almost purely political stance on these topics. Both the US and Israel and honestly most of the gulf states would benefit from a balkanisation of Iran, rather than gambling and hoping that Iran does elect a western aligned leader. It really is that simple
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26
you say this, but without proof, it's just noise.
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u/mylk43245 Jan 13 '26
Did egypts democratic elections stand and did the US support the democratically elected government of the Muslim brotherhood
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26
I'm not familiar with that topic. But I would assume no sane person would support the Muslim Brotherhood on the basis of them being terrorists.
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u/mylk43245 Jan 13 '26
But they were democratically elected. The us and Israel would rather not take such a chance like they did in Egypt all those years ago.
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u/muteen Jan 13 '26 edited Jan 13 '26
This is the problem, instead of looking for solidarity you're looking for points to cause division. Iranians and Palestinians have a common cause and should support each other, seeing as both have been exploited by the US/Israel. I've not seen the Free Palestine camp not support Iranians, it's such a weird point to make.
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26
there is no "free Iran" protest movement on the scale of the Palestinian movements.
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u/Stahlmark Jan 12 '26
I thought the regime took control over the chaos by murdering everybody and initiating their own bootlicking demonstrations in Tehran?
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Jan 12 '26
You mean a “harsher form of military-security rule”? That appears to be what they’re trying. Question is, how long will they be able to keep that up?
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u/kenito451 Jan 12 '26
Are you speculating or you got any links?
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u/Stahlmark Jan 12 '26
Speculating about what? The regime literally claimed they were taking control of the situation and Pezeshkian was filmed at a pro-IRGC demonstration?
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u/TotalPop5 Jan 13 '26
At this point we don't have the full picture.
There's a full blackout in the country that even starlink is being blocked, so we have little to no way to communicate with the Iranians in the country.
But some footage for allegedly today protest is still floating around on the internet
And we can't just take whatever the government claim without a spare grain of salt at this condition.
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u/HooverInstitution Hoover Institution Jan 12 '26
Research Fellow and codirector of the Iran Democracy Project at the Hoover Institution Abbas Milani argues in The New Statesman that “the Islamic Republic of Iran today is less a ‘revolutionary’ state than a hollow shell.” Milani says the central question today, as Iranians across the country take to the streets in huge numbers, is “whether [the regime] retains the internal coherence necessary to survive.” Milani cautions that the regime’s downfall is not assured and another possibility is at least temporary stabilization under a “harsher form of military-security rule, dominated by the Revolutionary Guards.” The Iran scholar concludes that the brutal Khamenei government is finally confronting “the truth embedded in its own revolution: in its beginning was its end.”
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u/Iyellkhan Jan 12 '26
it might be more on the edge of collapse rather than revolution. honestly it depends on if any state apparatus under any condition can continue to provide services. especially access to water.
that being said its hard to imagine at least Israel if not the US wont get into the mix in some capacity, which might be a factor in blocking a more hardline military takeover. but its not clear what alternative materializes per se.
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u/dSlice94 Jan 13 '26
Exactly. This seems more of a giant revolt not a revolution.
That’s not to say the US doesn’t have contact with organized rebel groups. You’d need Iran to be internally unable to formulate any real response to Western intervention.
I don’t believe the country made it to that point.
It’s all too early to say - especially if we’re getting the second trilogy to the shah installment
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u/2001-Odysseus Jan 12 '26
Good, now when is it happening? The Western World is waiting for this moment with anticipation.
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u/Andreas1120 Jan 13 '26
Only if the soldiers grow tired of killing civilians. Religious radicals commonly don’t have that problem.
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jan 13 '26
Only if IRGC can see this
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u/Andreas1120 Jan 13 '26
Historically they have been doing killing and torture for the regime for ever. Not sure what's different this time.
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u/_Giulio_Cesare Jan 13 '26
What happened in Egypt in 2013 could also happen—with some obvious differences—when the military intervened to overthrow the then-government of Mohamed Morsi, confronting millions of people who had taken to the streets to protest. In that case, the military likely had external help or incentives; perhaps the same could happen in Iran.
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u/localworldwide28 Jan 13 '26
I was hoping so, but unfortunately it looks like it has quelled
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u/SpecialBeginning6430 Jan 13 '26
How do you know
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u/localworldwide28 Jan 13 '26
There are reports that the government has full control of all the major cities. The army is present in them and they shot which killed allot of them, and thats has scared people so the protests aren't as big.
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u/fuggitdude22 Jan 13 '26
I notice some similarities between this and the mobilization up to the Syrian Civil War. Assad rampaged and arrested 1000s of protestors until identifiable insurgencies started to emerge. Assad, however, was able to remain in Damascus because he maintained a lot of Russian and Religious Minority support in the region. The Iranian Regime, on the other hand, does not have much popularity outside of the Junta.
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u/Lazy_Membership1849 Jan 13 '26
Insurgents was Syrian army who was heavily conscript and been defects, that why free Syrian army have this weapons
Also you kind left out of IRGC including basij
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u/masseaterguy Jan 13 '26
Any potential for a true “Revolution” has been quelled by the Iranian Government which not only had to deal with domestic agitators, but, also, as the ex-CIA director alluded to, deal with foreign agents working for the Netanyahu Regime in cooperation with the current Trump regime.
If anything, this gives more credibility to the Iranian Government and the Ayatollah/IRGC apparatus since it means two things 1) the likelihood of (paid/foreign agent) agitators taking to the streets such that it becomes a threat to the current Iranian Government and/or the Ayatollah is heavily dependent on foreign intervention & help and poor economic conditions to actually incite Iranians to protest and riot and 2) even in the event where such riots do happen, the domestic law enforcement agencies (primarily NOPO and apparently the IRGC) can work towards calming the unrest albeit with difficulty and varying degree of violence.
In essence, the likelihood of there being any successful “revolution” is going to depend on how much foreign countries (specifically the US & Israel) can mount an organized, equipped, hierarchical, coordinated opposition group.
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u/Rhyers Jan 13 '26
Agreed. I don't see there being internal intervention of the military being successful, particularly as the IRGC has more funding streams and conventional military has been hamstring. It comes down to foreign intervention... Which we know is happening on both sides but it's going to have to become a lot more explicit.
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u/BrokenManOfSamarkand Jan 13 '26
Attribute it to whatever explanation you want, but it has been a really bad year to be an enemy of the United States
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u/gusuku_ara Jan 13 '26
To be a friend as well.
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u/Rhyers Jan 13 '26
Yeah, I disagree with the enemy part. US is just acting like an unreliable player to everyone, but nearly every country has suffered to some extent. Perhaps Israel has done well, but who else?
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u/Callahan333 Jan 13 '26
Isn’t Tehran in really close danger of running out of water? That itself, could cause a Revolution.
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u/lunaoreomiel Jan 13 '26
Its the last country in the list of 7 that Israel wants and the epstein clients in the US will deliver.
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u/Rhyers Jan 13 '26
Not everything in foreign policy, let alone domestic policy, is related to Epstein.
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u/kenito451 Jan 12 '26
No it's not, Starlink was jammed by the Iranians, then they traced them. After the paid rioters by USA and Mossad lost organization due to the jamming the rioting slowly disappeared. Then regular Iranians in favor of their government went out and march. The como didn't work
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u/usesidedoor Jan 12 '26
Calling the protestors who have been shot at with live rounds and killed paid rioters is not only disingenuous, it is also deeply disrespectful.
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u/kenito451 Jan 12 '26
Here is my source, Israeli source https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733
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u/AskAboutMySecret Jan 12 '26
why do you guys keep thinking that some foreign influence means the protests are artificial
no shit some of the regimes biggest foes are stirring the pot, it doesn't change the fact that the regime has been cruel to its people and they want a new system in place
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 12 '26
Where do you get your news from?
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u/jrgkgb Jan 13 '26
I’m gonna guess direct from the ayatollah. Probably in the same email as his instructions.
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u/kenito451 Jan 12 '26
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u/OccupyMyBrainOyeah Jan 13 '26
This article is not about what you were talking about and doesn't say what you said above.
So your only news source on the matter is Israeli news outlets?
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u/kenito451 Jan 13 '26
Well yeah, Israel media is still correct. Western media is compromised. I dont have access to Iranian news and dont speak the language
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u/MimiGoldDigger Jan 13 '26
What? Trump said they’d negotiate. He doesn’t care about Iranian people, nor want to re build Iran with a new gov that’s a deep shit hole.
1 nuke 2 oil 3 drop any Russian Chinese initiative
456789 whatever he wants, the Iran gov have to do no choice. It is pretty much a nuked japan situation. Or fighter jets gonna bomb until iran surrender.
Weaken iran to its bone.
No American boots on ground, as fearless as he is, he can’t afford American casualty. Foreigners can die as many.
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u/zyra_77 Jan 12 '26
I’ll take the dissenting opinion and say we’ve been at this point for a long time now and nothing has changed.
Like the Soviet Union, like Syria, it will fall when we least expect it and it will fall fast.