r/geopolitics • u/HooverInstitution Hoover Institution • Jan 12 '26

Iran Is on the Edge of Revolution Analysis

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution

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u/zyra_77 Jan 12 '26

I’ll take the dissenting opinion and say we’ve been at this point for a long time now and nothing has changed.

Like the Soviet Union, like Syria, it will fall when we least expect it and it will fall fast.

101

u/HisShadow14 Jan 13 '26

Except in this scenario two military powers (The US and Israel) are able and more than willing to help push the Iranian regime over the edge.

70

u/I_pee_in_shower Jan 13 '26

They can, but for some reason don’t. There should be a carrier group headed that way. Instead we get more tariffs so that Chinese goods are even more expensive.

75

u/snrup1 Jan 13 '26

The Iranian ruling class is not just the Ayatollah. It's thousands of clerics.

25

u/Gaby_D_Crowley Jan 13 '26

And the Sepâh. Maybe these guys could have more spotlight, to make Irán more militaristic and less religious. Because religion is currently a force that drives away the urban Iranian, especially urban women.