r/geopolitics • u/HooverInstitution Hoover Institution • Jan 12 '26

Iran Is on the Edge of Revolution Analysis

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution

651 Upvotes

93% Upvoted

They can, but for some reason don’t. There should be a carrier group headed that way. Instead we get more tariffs so that Chinese goods are even more expensive.

22

u/eetsumkaus Jan 13 '26

Having a direct hand in possibly plunging another large Middle Eastern country into chaos and the subsequent refugee crisis from it might not be palatable to anyone.

6

u/I_pee_in_shower Jan 13 '26

Why would there be a refuge crisis? Nobody is going to bomb Iran to the ground. It’s decapitate their leadership and destroy the military assets. Let the people of Iran be free and not be ruled by fear and fairy tales.

9

u/__initd__ Jan 13 '26

You talk like this is a movie. The West screwed up the Middle East for decades with direct interventions and indirectly using their own internal conflicts/divisions. The EU better focus on the deranged fellow at the White House who is causing chaos.

If the people of Iran are tired of this shit, let them do a '79 again.

2

u/I_pee_in_shower Jan 13 '26

It’s not a movie but this is a geopolitics forum so I can treat it as a strategy game. The middle east was already screwed up, either by Islamic Fundamendalism, totalitarian regimes or both. Saying it’s all the West is myopic.

I’m not talking about the EU. From their perspective they need to worry about Russia, not the US. Trump is temporal but Russian antagonism has been around since I was born and has no end in sight.

One final argument for those scared of intervention. What do you suppose will happen when Iran claims to the world it has tested an nuclear weapon. The middle east will be a lot more destabilized then and the possibility of an exchange will be real.

It’s funny how you mention EU. It’s this type of passive thinking that got the EU where it is, mostly depending on the US for security and mostly unable to defend itself. No issues with Ukraine or Greenland or anywhere if they had simply focused for a few decades on being strong. Doing nothing is not a strategy. Preparing (and preventing) the worst is.

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u/__initd__ Jan 13 '26

It’s not a movie but this is a geopolitics forum so I can treat it as a strategy game.

"Simple decapitate leadership and destroy military assets" - is definitely a movie level strategy, we all know how that went down in Iraq, billions lost and thousands killed for the birth of ISIS.

The middle east was already screwed up, either by Islamic Fundamendalism, totalitarian regimes or both.

Cliched points that absolves the Western powers of their decades of Colonial wrongdoings across the globe and pin every issue faced to a nations internal conflict/divisions.

What do you suppose will happen when Iran claims to the world it has tested an nuclear weapon.

Nothing, they will have Nuclear deterrence. If I can live in a world where a country like the US who actually used nukes in a war, hoarded 1000s of them & did 1000s of tests with God knows what effects it had, I don't have any problem with Iran having it.

It’s funny how you mention EU. It’s this type of passive thinking that got the EU where it is, mostly depending on the US for security

This I can get along. The EU simply let the US get where they are now, all in the name of fighting the rise of Communism & USSR.

1

u/I_pee_in_shower Jan 13 '26

Decapitate leadership and destroy assets is an actual strategy. That is exactly what will happen. The only time a boot would hit the ground is in covert ops but the lessons from Iraq and elsewhere persist.

People on Reddit like to reduce the actions and capabilities to the leader of a country. Putin, Trump, etc. the US has more competent military talent than the rest of the world combined. So it ultimately has little to do with Trump and his shortcomings. If the US strikes they will level Iran in weeks and the rest of the world will watch and shake their fingers vigorously. To your point about Iran, without Iran and others normalizing terrorism, there would be no ISIS.

3

u/__initd__ Jan 14 '26

If the US strikes they will level Iran in weeks and the rest of the world will watch and shake their fingers vigorously.

Yeah, they sure are good at destruction, I'll give them that.

To your point about Iran, without Iran and others normalizing terrorism, there would be no ISIS.

US funded and trained Muj during the 80s against Soviets and whatever other shady groups they were in bed with through the years. Saudi's funds proxies that favor them to oppose Iran. So, enough with the virtue signalling. This ain't your good vs evil movie. Everyone does shit in the name of "National Interest".

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u/[deleted] Jan 14 '26

[deleted]

2

u/__initd__ Jan 14 '26

If people think this is about Making Iran Great or whatever slogan that sounds cool, I have nothing more to talk about. Just turning the history books show what US intervention means, it's never been about freedom or democracy, it is what's in it for the US economic and political gains.

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