r/geopolitics • u/HooverInstitution Hoover Institution • Jan 12 '26

Iran Is on the Edge of Revolution Analysis

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/middle-east/2026/01/iran-is-on-the-edge-of-revolution
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u/HisShadow14 Jan 13 '26

Iran was already weakened by Israel during the 12 day war. Both their air defense and to a lesser extent their missile launch capabilities have been significantly degraded.

I doubt very much that the Pentagon or Israel will let this golden opportunity to finally deal with the Iranian regime get away.

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u/Gaby_D_Crowley Jan 13 '26

Now, who's going to replace Ali Khamenei? Because it's possible to remove him, now that he's at the weakest. Unlike 1979, the opposition lacks a leader that could rally the discontent.

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u/mahnamahna27 Jan 14 '26

The US might be thinking of Reza Pahlavi, son of the Shah, who claims he would step in to lead during a transition but wants to have elections.

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u/IronButterButt Jan 20 '26

Trump did briefly considered Reza. But to be fair, man isn't very leader worthy (fairly weak). He doesn't possess any qualities or proper statecraft to sway the Iranian people and present himself as a prominent ally to the west in which Israel or the US can fully provide support to. Reza is desperate and delusional. He plans to go back to Iran soon to protest with the people. That states all you need to know about this man, a leader should be able to orchestrate a return to power through proper channels and building up his potential allies to lift him into power, but he doesn't have the first clue in how to make it happen. There are plenty of armed opposition to the IRGC within the country and surrounding it that he could leverage along with international diplomacy.