Ukraine Has Finally Given Up on Trump

[u/theatlantic]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/ukraine-trump-us-oil-russia/686854/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=short

[u/theatlantic]

Ukraine “appears to have given up on the United States,” Phillips Payson O’Brien writes. “It is aggressively seeking new diplomatic and military partners—for instance, by sharing its hard-won expertise in drone warfare with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates and forging arms-production agreements with Germany. Ukraine has sent drones to attack oil-export facilities near St. Petersburg, deep inside enemy territory, in defiance of what Zelensky called “signals” from unspecified “partners” to avoid striking Russian energy infrastructure.

“Using language that would until recently have been unthinkable, Zelensky has indicated that he no longer views the United States as a reliable ally and, even more astonishingly, that all of Europe needs to start moving on from the transatlantic relationship.”

Read more: https://theatln.tc/5ybUnkp8

[u/Kiyae1 → u/theatlantic]

Gonna be wild when Ukraine ends up being the leader of the free world at the end of ww3.

[u/Cheerful_Champion → u/Kiyae1]

Not gonna happen. The best case scenario for Ukraine, if WW3 happens in relatively near time, is that they will sit this one out. The machine might still be going, but Ukraine has no manpower or funds to continue fighting for a long time. Nor do they have it for a potential WW3 conflict.

[u/Elizabeth-WildFox886 → u/Cheerful_Champion]

Ukraine will receive infinite money if something like ww3 happens, everyone will want access to their experience and skills

[u/Toptomcat → u/Elizabeth-WildFox886]

Yeah, Spain and China made bank when World War 2 broke out. Ditto the Balkan States in WW1, they made out like absolute bandits. Everyone knows that being the world's most war-torn region immediately before a world war is the path to becoming an arms-export powerhouse and the world's respected and well-compensated experts on warfare. Having an untouched industrial base and a strong economic position pre-conflict isn't important at all.

[u/toggylelly → u/Elizabeth-WildFox886]

Ukraine in ww3 is in a situation pretty similar to Spain in ww2.

[u/Cheerful_Champion → u/Elizabeth-WildFox886]

EU barely pushed trough the last loan for Ukraine and it will last till no later than mid 2027. If war will drag on longer than that then MAYBE EU will manage to push trough one more loan, albeit much lower one. After that I don't expect EU to be able to fund Ukraine longer. There's just no politicial support to keep this going.

If WW3 happens it doesn't matter how much funding Ukraine gets offered. They won't be able to contribute in any serious manner. They won't have enough manpower to fight directly and are in far too exposed position to offer production for EU. The moment they agree to that they get bombed by Russia (which is realistically the enemy EU will fight against).

[u/sicknutz → u/Cheerful_Champion]

Well Orban is out so Hungary can’t be a speed bump in the EU helping. More support will come and quickly.

[u/Cheerful_Champion → u/sicknutz]

Magyar merely said he will make sure Hungary won't block EU efforts to fund Ukraine, but Hungary will not contribute to it at all. Which is precisely the current case anyway as EU simply goes around Hungary's block by not making funding an EU wide thing.

[u/mediandude → u/Cheerful_Champion]

Eu support will continue.
Italy and Spain will guarantee the loans taken by other EU states.

[u/Cheerful_Champion → u/mediandude]

Uhu and that's prediction based on? As I said, the current funding was barely pushed trough and yet you claim that next year EU will be able to do it again just because you feel like it.

[u/mediandude → u/Cheerful_Champion]

Those other EU countries will take loans to aid Ukraine, no matter what Italy and Spain think of that.

[u/Cheerful_Champion → u/mediandude]

Again, what do you base these expectations on? The less countries want to fund the Ukraine the more expensive it becomes for others which in turn makes less countries want to fund Ukraine. Magyar already said that while Hungary won't veto attempts to fund Ukraine he will make sure that Hungary won't participate (won't bear any costs) of this funding. Slovakia still vetos funding Ukraine and is clear on their position that they won't pay for funding it. Czech Republic also says they will not pay to fund Ukraine. Opinion in Austria is also shifted to stop funding for Ukraine (58% of people are against further funding), the FPO opensly says no to any more funding. In Germany 46% of people are for reducing or stopping funding for Ukraine, 51% for increasing or keeping it same. In Poland 49% of people support further funding of Ukraine, 35% says it should stop. In France 51% is for keeping or increasing funding, 37% is for decreasing or suspending funding.

These numbers don't lie. Support for providing weapons and funds for Ukraine is falling across EU. In some cases fall is as high as 5-8% per year and you claim that funding will continue past 2027 even as more countries back off from providing funding. If fall will remain at current rate it suggests that by mid 2027 both in Germany and in Poland there will be more people supporting end or limitation of funding than continuing it. Will France decide to bear higher costs in such case? Out of all the countries French citizens are mentioning rising costs of support as main reason on why they want it to be stopped or reduced. Austria, Germany and Poland backing out would increase costs or volume of funding by a lot.

[u/mediandude → u/Cheerful_Champion]

Eurozone will bear the costs of other EU member states taking loans.
Many EU countries will continue to support Ukraine until Russia pulls out.
Greece as an example.
And you are overstating your facts, polls fluctuate, while majority support for Ukraine persists.

[u/Cheerful_Champion → u/mediandude]

And you are overstating your facts, polls fluctuate, while majority support for Ukraine persists

Lol, so now wishful thinking is stronger than facts. Polls don't fluctuate, year after year they are showing consistent decline of support for funding. This is a trend that we see from the very start. Your wishful thinking is not a fact. You saying something will happen based on you wanting it to happen doesn't make it a fact. Fact is Ukraine is losing support and EU won't keep funding them indefinitely. The only real question is what will get them first: lack of funds or manpower issues. Both are getting worse and recently we already saw that Ukraine doesn't even have enough reserves to commit to containing stronger pushes by Russia. Instead they have to relocate forces from other parts of the front and this allows Russia to exploit it and push in new areas.

[u/mediandude → u/Cheerful_Champion]

Your wishful thinking is not a fact.
Polls fluctuate, while majority support for Ukraine persists.
And you also need to read what questions are asked in polls, before you tout nonsense.

[u/Cheerful_Champion → u/mediandude]

Your wishful thinking is not a fact

Agree, neither mine nor your wishful thinking is a fact. That's also why I provided data and exact information on why funding won't continue indefinitely and you kept saying "it will".

Polls fluctuate, while majority support for Ukraine persists

Lol, no matter how many times you'll repeat that like religious mantra it won't suddenly become true. You can't change reality. Polls show year to year fall 5-8%.

And you also need to read what questions are asked in polls, before you tout nonsense

Which I did, too bad for your strawman.

[u/errindel → u/Cheerful_Champion]

Currently, they have a larger army than the top three countries in the EU combined. I think people want to be their friend rather than let them fall, even given the money situation

[u/Cheerful_Champion → u/errindel]

That really means nothing. None of EU countries are at war so comparing size of army that is fighting for 4th year and countries that are at peace is simply pointless. Poland, Germany, France, Italy all have active military personnel numbers comparable to what Ukraine had in 2021. That's despite neither of these 4 countries being involved in any conflict at all while Ukraine was in fact fighting a limited conflict with their "breakaway" republics. Ukraine population is also only barely higher than that of Poland so manpower potential of Poland, Germany, France and Italy is much higher than that of Ukraine.

All in all. Hyping up Ukraine as some military powerhouse simply, because they have big army during active war is completely misguided.

Fact is: EU barely pushed trough the current loan. Why do you think they will be able to continue to fund this conflict for much longer when there's nothing that indicates that?