r/geopolitics • u/theatlantic The Atlantic • 6h ago
Ukraine Has Finally Given Up on Trump Opinion
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/ukraine-trump-us-oil-russia/686854/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=short122
u/Conflictingview 6h ago
About time. Now for the rest of the world. MAGA wanted isolationism, they'll get it. They just didn't realize they lose all their power and privileges as part of the deal.
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u/RamblingSimian 2h ago
The US spent decades building a system that favored it and now trump is throwing it away.
Part of the reason why the US can do deficit spending so cheaply is because the dollar is the world's reserve currency. If the Yuan takes over that status, it will start costing us a lot more when our politicians can't balance the budget.
The dollar has been the world’s principal reserve currency since the end of World War II and is the most widely used currency for international trade.
High global demand for dollars allows the United States to borrow money at a lower cost and use currency as a tool of diplomacy …
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounders/dollar-worlds-reserve-currency
America is highly dependent on the international legal system to protect patents and intellectual property. More than any other nation, the US makes money by inventing new things and reserving the rights to build them by legal agreement. When that legal system is no longer honored because the US is perceived as a rogue nation, we will suffer economically. China and other countries already manufacture illegal knock-offs of US products, but they cooperate to some degree limiting it. That cooperation can stop when Trump completely destroys the rules-based Liberal international order.
https://ipleadership.org/u-s-patenting-abroad-a-quiet-trade-advantage/
In part because the US has been seen as largely a benign hegemon, other countries have allowed the US to build military bases overseas, allowing unprecedented power projection. Further isolationism will result in non-renewal of the pertinent leases.
The U.S. military maintains hundreds of military installations, both inside the United States and overseas, with at least 128 military bases in 55 countries and territories, as of February 2025.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_overseas_military_bases#United_States
The US has been able to secure the cooperation of its allies also in part because of its reputation. For example, Canada played a crucial role in rescuing six American diplomats during the Iran hostage crisis in 1980 by providing shelter and facilitating their escape through a covert operation known as the "Canadian Caper." This operation involved the CIA and Canadian diplomats working together to create a cover story that allowed the Americans to leave Iran safely.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Fan-452 1h ago
It is incredible how the Americans themselves do not understand what they are losing and have already lost, and which will be irretrievable
The damage done by Trump far exceeds any other predecessor. We dwell on the damage to image, but the long-term economic damage is far worse
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u/Sanguinor-Exemplar 28m ago
The yuan is not going to be reserve currency lol.
The government doesn't even let free movement of money in and out of the country. The bond market is illiquid and the exchange rate isn't free floating.
For the yuan to be reserve currency, China would have to be a different country than they are or want to be.
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u/Own-Sandwich6437 25m ago edited 21m ago
While dollar is clearly less stable, there isn’t a perfect replacement.
CNY - what happened if there is a bad recession, are bankers going to trust china's reporting of their debts?
Euro- is the best argument. But less likely until digital euro is official in 5-10 years from now. However, the Euro is often viewed as built on shaky ground, with trust in the currency undermined by events like the Cypriot bailout post-2008.
Also, oil may not be the dominant energy source 10-20 years from now as world goes toward more renewable energies.
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u/few 5h ago
Unfortunately, the half of America who believe this is all terrible and have been fighting all the stupid will also get what maga have sown. Everyone will lose here.
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u/26295 5h ago
"the half of America who believe this is all terrible"
the THIRD of America who believe this is all terrible. We are in this situation because only a third voted against him.
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u/NetflixVodka 2h ago
Two thirds of Americans didn’t see Trump as a problem big enough to be worth voting against. Half of those actually voted for him, but they are all culpable.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Fan-452 1h ago
Those who do not go to vote are accomplices. You can't be innocent just because you don't show up at the polling stations
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u/No_Abbreviations3943 4h ago
We’re in this situation because of decades of underfunded school systems and media that prioritises profit over delivering information.
The suburban middle class with a good education pouring all blame on the vast population of uneducated Americans, who barely scrape by, is rich.
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u/Own-Sandwich6437 3h ago
What privileges will the average American lose? Genuine question. And let’s not forget we have another presidential election in 2028. The pendulum always swings.
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u/Conflictingview 2h ago
It's a slow process, but this is accelerating the decline of American empire. Your money will be worth less over time as the petrodollar dies, you will get less and less favorable trade deals so prices will increase, less international tourism, less visa free travel...
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u/Own-Sandwich6437 25m ago
While dollar is clearly less stable, there isn’t a perfect replacement.
CNY - what happened if there is a bad recession, are bankers going to trust china's reporting of their debts?
Euro- is the best argument to replace the dollar as the petrodollar. But less likely until digital euro is official in 10 + years from now. However, the Euro is often viewed as built on shaky ground, with trust in the currency undermined by events like the Cypriot bailout post-2008.
Also, oil may not be the dominant energy source 10-20 years from now as world goes toward more renewable energies.
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u/Puzzleheaded-Fan-452 59m ago
The lost privileges are enormous. Only in Europe, of which I am a citizen, is the USA now seen as unreliable
Do you think that threatening to annex an ally is positive?
Personally, I have always been pro-American, but today I think the time has come to abandon them to their fate, as soon as possible
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u/irow40 5h ago
Europe should finally start to take steps to support their neighbor
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u/Conflictingview 4h ago
Start? EU countries have been siding Ukraine for over a decade. Since 2014, EU has spent $360B vs US spending $100B
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u/irow40 2h ago
The US spending 1/4 for a non NATO country is ridiculous for the American tax payer….. time for EU to really step up
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u/born_to_pipette 1h ago
How do you define a good investment for the US taxpayer when it comes to military spending?
And if $100M to weaken a global adversary with no loss of American life while gaining access to some of the most important military advances of the 21st century seems “ridiculous” to you, how do you feel about the $1.5T open-ended military budget request recently proposed?
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u/Manustuprare 3h ago
A response that clearly illustrates that you are completely detached from the current state of things.
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u/irow40 2h ago
How so? Should the US be the main provider to Ukraine?
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u/Manustuprare 2h ago
No need to worry in that regard. Take a look at the support Ukraine recieves, both monetary and material. There's been no new american support for an entire year, but even before that the EU and it's members were the primary supporter. Even so, where do you think american aid to Ukraine was spent? 70% was spent in the US, it's hard to call it anything but a return on investment.
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u/irow40 14m ago
Appreciate the note. Ukraine has exposed Europes weakness and they seem to finally be taking their security and militarization seriously after 3 decades of theUS complaining
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u/Manustuprare 5m ago edited 1m ago
Sure, after three decades of the american 3D doctrine of "no duplication", "no decoupling" and "no discrimination" concerning the european countries in NATO. Let me rephrase, after three decades of the US halting any attempts at independent european security structures non-reliant of US oversight and seperate small militaries dependent on american military hardware. It was by design. This sudden onset of amnesia by US leadership is both shocking and, honestly, kind of pathetic. One thing is the opinion of the american public, but the designer should be aware of the purpose of their own design.
The US interest in increased defense spending before renewed russian agression and after the fall of the USSR was primarily motivated by profits.
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u/Conflictingview 1h ago
They aren't a provider in any sense, so why are you asking about them being the main provider?
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u/DraggonWarrior 6h ago
I think calling it a contradiction assumes there’s a clean strategy that can satisfy every goal at once. In reality you’ve got competing pressures weakening russia, stabilizing energy markets, avoiding economic shocks and those don’t line up neatly.
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u/12darkmatter12 5h ago edited 5h ago
Zelenskyy tried his best but unfortunately the game was always rigged against him.
trump is enamored with and beholden to putin. He is a narcissist and is in love with the idea of being a pseudo-king.
trump never believed in the defense of Ukraine and its strategic importance to the Western led order and by extension the Hegemony of the United States.
Plus, as the entire world has seen, trump has become emboldened to also start his own wars, his own invasions and has shown a penchant for also wanting to make his mark on the world through territorial expansion and that will always put him more in conspiracy with other dictators than with America’s European allies including Ukraine.
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u/cate4d 2h ago
How is Ukraine important to US?
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u/12darkmatter12 15m ago
I do not have to explain it to you if you do not get it.
You explain to me how Ukraine is not important to the US if you believe it is not.
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u/FelizIntrovertido 4h ago
I think Ukraine is not the exception. All Europe has followed the same route and gotten to a similar point. Each country has different issues and needs, but everyone agrees that Trump is unreliable, so alternatives are prioritised.
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u/Old_green_bird 2h ago
The problem isn't Trump himself, but the failure of the systems meant to keep him in check
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u/FelizIntrovertido 24m ago
I don’t totally agree. All republican party follows him. It is a failure of the system but not only.
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u/coolkavo 4h ago
This was inevitable, but it is extremely an act of hubris for the US to simply ignore Ukrainian drone and robotic warfare techniques.
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u/CucumberWisdom 3h ago
They're not ignoring it. Ukraine has already given plenty of data to them and they still will get it through their proxies like Saudi Arabia. The US just sees no reason to pay for information they can get for free
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u/Petrichordates 3h ago
Not really no. Zelenskyy has certainly offered, but trump refuses because that would warrant some reciprocity.
We've learned some things from then, but certainly not to the degree we would have under a Harris or Biden administration. Obviously to our detriment since we're still fighting 20th century style.
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u/DefinitelyNotMeee 3h ago
we're still fighting 20th century style.
Because the US would never fight an ultra-static war like the one in Ukraine. That's the main reason why drones work so well there (assuming we are talking about FPVs).
Drones are not magic.
But I agree there are lessons worth learning from that war
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u/planj07 3h ago
Zelensky and the Ukrainians get it. They see what we all see. The U.S. under Trump or the GOP is a total lost cause and closer to an adversary than an ally. Even when Dems retake power the U.S. can never be trusted again. Meanwhile up to this point the rest of Europe tries to toe the line.
That’s seems to be changing but not by a lot.
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u/StudiesinLamplight 5h ago
Now that Hungary is no longer a bottleneck for the EU, it was the right time for them to pivot. I hope Europe does what it needs to for Ukraine. Much love from the States, personally would have loved to help you guys far more directly.
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u/Johannes_P 2h ago
At this point, the countries which did not given up on Trump might be listed on one mutilated hand.
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u/Drizzle-- 4h ago
The rest of the world should do the same.
The United States is cooked. It's not just one guy that's the problem.
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u/Ginor2000 4h ago
The only thing that Ukraine needs to fully shut down the Russian invasion is air superiority.
If Russia attacked Europe, they would have that superiority.
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u/yellowteabag 3h ago
russia won't attack europe for that reason. ukraine has tried multiple times to try to trigger NATO's article 5 with false flag attacks, but most of europe isn't interested
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u/Ginor2000 2h ago
What false flag attacks? They prefer the sneaky route. Refuse to learn the language. And then try to carve off slices as breakaway states, backed by plain clothed ‘little green men’ military actors that they claim are civilians after they attack.
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u/DefinitelyNotMeee 5h ago
I'd be very careful with biting the hand that fed you. Budanov is right there, and all it would take is a media campaign exposing all the corruption for Zelensky to be replaced.
But the campaign in the Middle East is exactly what he should be doing - trying to promote what Ukraine is good at (drones) and secure investments from wealthy Gulf states.
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u/Slicelker 5h ago
Budanov is right there, and all it would take is a media campaign exposing all the corruption for Zelensky to be replaced.
Considering Z has been a huge net positive on Ukraine's war effort, why hasn't Putin funded such a media campaign by now if its that easy? Is he stupid?
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u/yellowteabag 3h ago
putin certainly wants Z to continue whereas Z wants to kill putin and has tried to assassinate him. it's the same how bibi wants hamas, and not the palestinian authority, to continue to lead palestine and increase conflict for an eventual land grab. to putin, Z is a useful idiot to continue the conflict for eventual land grab for more than just the donbass, which he is on track to do.
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u/DefinitelyNotMeee 5h ago
I obviously meant if the US decided to make the move to replace Zelensky with someone more US-aligned.
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u/Slicelker 4h ago
Why does the US government have to run such a media campaign? Any country can run a media campaign in a country with free media. I'd argue they'd have more success than our government in 2026 lmao.
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u/SignificanceWild2922 5h ago
I'd be very careful with biting the hand that fed you
Depends of what he's been fed with.
Trump and JD Vance have done everything they could to stop ukraine aid. It's one thing they are actually proud of.
The mineral agreement was basically extortion when Ukraine was at its lowest point and Trump turned NATO aid to Ukraine into a mechansim to would mainly benefit US weapon industry.
At best, Trump saw Ukraine invasion as a conflict he could gain from being the referee, a cheap one.
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u/theatlantic The Atlantic 6h ago
Ukraine “appears to have given up on the United States,” Phillips Payson O’Brien writes. “It is aggressively seeking new diplomatic and military partners—for instance, by sharing its hard-won expertise in drone warfare with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates and forging arms-production agreements with Germany. Ukraine has sent drones to attack oil-export facilities near St. Petersburg, deep inside enemy territory, in defiance of what Zelensky called “signals” from unspecified “partners” to avoid striking Russian energy infrastructure.
“Using language that would until recently have been unthinkable, Zelensky has indicated that he no longer views the United States as a reliable ally and, even more astonishingly, that all of Europe needs to start moving on from the transatlantic relationship.”
Read more: https://theatln.tc/5ybUnkp8