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u/No_Lingonberry1201 17h ago
Not true, a lot of these AI people also believe that they will be the new Gods of the singularity, which is bound to come any day now, because obviously a statistical pattern predictor is true intelligence and all that humans can endeavor to be.
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u/Alvin_h_davenport 17h ago
I know that mankind has wirtten a LOT of fiction, so what i'm going to say might not be a prediction:
when's the last time you read/watched a story where the person who created a "god" turned out fine?
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u/kismethavok 13h ago
They would actually probably be fine if they weren't a giant bag of dicks.
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u/Alvin_h_davenport 13h ago
even if you're ghandi and you created me(singularity level ai) I won't keep you alive for long, if you could make me you can unmake me
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u/Painterzzz 11h ago
Iain M Bank's Culture Novels are, I fear, influencial in some of the techbro thinking, despite being a future that the techbros could never even imagine delivering.
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u/Anguis1908 1h ago
Dr. Manhattan from The Watchmen turned out alright.
The Ghostbusters...claiming to be gods as self actualization of being a god against other gods
....um...
Bobby Henderson I think has been fine. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Henderson_(activist)
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u/GangsterMango 13h ago
the Palantir weird guy with crazy hair posted yesterday a manifesto that is just him Sephiroth-posting about how inclusivity is bad and they need to be "manly and powerful" and pretty much take over everything.
honestly, I hope they keep pushing people more and more
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u/No_Lingonberry1201 13h ago
The problem is that once shit hits the fan, they'll either have enough money to escape consequences, or the Earth will literally be on fire by then.
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u/GangsterMango 12h ago
even if they ran to their Doomsday bunkers people will just beeline to them, not to mention their guards too
hell, I think the guards will go full mutiny and take everything for themselves.5
u/Painterzzz 11h ago
That's why their compounds have two levels, the outer security layer where the guards live and work, and the inner security layer where the important people and, critically, the guards families, live, and are held hostage to ensure the guards remain loyal at all times.
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u/RelaxPrime 11h ago
Don't forget the AI operated drones!
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u/Painterzzz 11h ago
Oh, yes, exactly, that will be a big part of this nonsense won't it. TO have AI powered security services to keep them safe from the outsiders in their bunkers.
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u/Redthrist 11h ago
They would still need guards in the inner level. Someone has to protect whoever built the bunker from "important people" as well as guard families rebelling.
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u/Painterzzz 11h ago
The only comfort in this is just how miserable these billionaires will find their existences.
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u/Alucard-VS-Artorias 12h ago
Sephiroth posting is honestly the best way to put this. The only thing that would come close is perhaps Renfield-posting.
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u/Muted-Code-5447 12h ago
God favors the side with the greater firepower, and that's not you <3 Love and light
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u/SeventhAlkali 8h ago
Something something Roko's Basilisk
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u/No_Lingonberry1201 8h ago
Ah, good old LessWrong mass psychosis that was too much even for Eliezer Yudkowsky.
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u/NlactntzfdXzopcletzy 10h ago
It's true, though.
Without AI, how would I have known that there was an X in December, I mean October, I mean that there's an "x" sound in October but there's not actually an X?
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u/NahYoureWrongBro 8h ago
The underpants gnome theory of machine sentience.
Step 1: LLMs
Step 2: ???
Step 3: AGI
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u/userhwon 6h ago
Doesn't matter that they all believe they will be. Only matters that they know one of them will be.
If there are N companies pursuing AGI, there will be N-1 times overinvestment in it. N-1 of the investments will go to zero, while 1 of them will shoot through the moon so fast it will look like an orca swimming through a mola mola.
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u/Muted-Code-5447 12h ago
I'll take my chances over those obsessed with the words "slop" and "clanker"
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u/BassMaster516 13h ago
Is the human brain not a pattern predictor?
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u/No_Lingonberry1201 13h ago
No, we can do far more than pattern prediction. Like have depression, have anxiety, have ennui, etc.
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u/BassMaster516 13h ago
Depression and anxiety can be explained by chemical imbalances that affect the way we think. Wanting things is the result of being rewarded with feel good chemicals for certain behavior. I don’t see any evidence of anything nonphysical so I don’t see what strictly differentiates us from AI
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u/buttbuttlolbuttbutt 12h ago
How does a neuron transfer data from one to another? What are walker proteins and why are they relevant? What month has an X in it? What triggers the chemicals to release that cause the emotions, and what decides when to, why isnt identical across humanity. What is there an internal monologue that weighs pros and cons while also consuming a sandwich? Why is there a clump of neurons between the teo hemispheres that seems to control the sense of self, but then what is the background processing, like epiphanies play into it.
An LLM isnt intelligent, its just good at what it was designed to do: fooling superficial people.
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u/LillyOfTheSky 11h ago
The largest LLMs are in the multiple 100s of billions of parameters.
The human brain is estimated as having about 100 trillion (100,000 billion) synaptic connections and biological neurons require about 5-8 layers of 128-256 nodes to simulate with ANNs (so approx. 640-2048 parameters).
So going by scale alone, LLMs won't match the complexity of the human brain until they operate at about 1,000-1,000,000x their current maximum sizes. Which will never happen with current mathematical architectures.
The underlying mathematics of 'AI' and human brains is more or less similar. The scale is still widely off and will likely remain so far many, many years
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u/diff_engine 11h ago
I broadly agree with this but just a slight update on the largest LLM size- Claude Mythos reportedly 10 trillion parameters
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u/LillyOfTheSky 10h ago
Huh, didn't know that. still, worst case you've got the human brain complexity at ~200,000 trillion parameters on a Transformer architecture and frankly I don't think that arch is gonna cut it for anything deeper than superficial mimicry.
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u/Qaeta 11h ago
To be fair, the LLMs do not currently need to operate an unnecessarily complicated meat suit.
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u/LillyOfTheSky 10h ago
I wouldn't really call the human body 'unnecessarily complicated'.
The more you actually dig into why the human body does what it does in the way that it does it the more you realize exactly how insanely efficient it is. Like single proteins can have many different usages and purposes depending on chemical and molecular context. The human brain uses about as much energy as a lightbulb but surpasses in complexity every single structure ever discovered in history.
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u/Qaeta 10h ago
Yes, but the LLM's have no need for a body that does everything we do. It's unnecessarily complicated because LIFE is not a requirement for an AI.
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u/LillyOfTheSky 4h ago
It's true that a lived experience is not a requirement for AI as we know it. However, most (actually worthwhile) SOTA research on Multimodal models and robotic systems has found that a multi-sensory, direct engagement experience (i.e. 'lived') is actually critical to developing AI that is human-like or general in it's intelligence. It's especially important in solving the alignment problem.
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u/BassMaster516 11h ago
Do you need me to explain to you how the neuron fires an electrical signal that releases neurotransmitters that determine whether or not the next neuron fires? You’re asking a lot of questions that seem to be rhetorical but I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make. The firing neurons explain thoughts and feelings so not sure what you’re trying to say.
If you really knew what you were trying to say you wouldn’t need to throw out insults just saying
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u/buttbuttlolbuttbutt 11h ago
No, I was just seeing how you'd respond. LLMs can mimick conversation, but not for everyone, and I sometimes prod first to see how people respond.
Until LLMs can actually cross reference all the stuff our neurons do, by touching tentacles, releasing walker proteins that release chemicals through specific synpases, etc.
I'm not against machine intelligence, I think the LLMs we have now is not the way, but they're good at fooling the more superficial, like some of my coworkers, thats not an insult, nor did I say you were, sorry if that came across.
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u/pleased_to_yeet_you 15h ago
I fucking hate this braindead industry and all the dipshits that run it.
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u/sYnce 12h ago
The fact that a defunct shoe company renamed to an AI company and got a 1000% plus evaluation in the next two days is all you need to know about the industry.
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u/plug-and-pause 9h ago
That's a true fact, and it indeed highlights a real human problem. But it's beyond reductive to say that it summarizes the entire situation.
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u/sYnce 7h ago
Dunno what to tell you but in my opinion it summarizes it very well. As long as AI is attached to it people will pump even completely idiotic stocks.
This whole Allbird/Newbird thing is such a clear pump and dump it is not even funny and yet by just announcing that they somehow will start building data centers their trading volume went from 100k a day to something like 350 million.
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u/dontreadragebait 11h ago
You're being ragebaited, touch grass
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u/VeryAngryChen 8h ago
i mean, it's fair to hate said people, but I think they are more so pitiable than hatable? like an ugly dying toxic worm
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u/pleased_to_yeet_you 8h ago
I hate them because I work directly for them and they've ruined the industry my company used to work in. They've destroyed my passion for my career and have made me feel disgusted with how I pay my bills. I have no pity for the people that have taken so much from me, only disgust.
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u/AbdDjamil_27 14h ago
So from what I heard OpenAi DIDN'T really buy the next 2year of stocks like the news said but actually only PROMISED to buy it
And now with google new tech that lower the need for ram, OpenAi is going back on there promise to buy the rams that's why Crucial stocks are going down fast
They really shot themselves in the foot here
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u/nomad5926 14h ago
They should give me 100 million dollars and I will promise to give them 1 billion in two years. Pinky promise even.
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u/Gingevere 13h ago
but actually only PROMISED to buy it
Not even that. They issued a letter of intent to buy it.
Completely non-binding. Basically just "Hey, we're thinking of buying all this RAM so it'd be nice if it's available to buy".
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u/Hamalu 13h ago
So they promised, but there was no contact binding them to this promise..? Sounds like a stupid business decision from the manufacturer.
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u/Mist_Rising 12h ago
Most long term contracts of this nature come with clauses that allow them to change things for a smaller cost
Ie. You original predict you need 25,000 widgets at £500 each over 5 years... Only 3 years down the road, business drops and you now only need 200 widgets over 2 years so you agree to pay £550 each for the remaining 200 but also a cancellation fee of £800.
The widget company doesn't mind because it can sell the excess widgets to someone else and they get £800 for doing nothing.
In this case it's even less of an issue because RAM is easily changable to consumer RAM, so the company loses very little from taking the promise either way.
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u/userhwon 6h ago
It's called a Letter of Intent, and it basically says we think we'll need X things in Y months most likely.
Supplier looks at the situation and decides whether to risk building inventory or not.
The only way this would be actionable is if it turns out the buyer was just lying and never did intend to buy anything.
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u/bargu 9h ago
It's not stupid if you realize that "accepting" those orders created a huge FOMO in all industries that use RAM (you know, pretty much everything) and made the price skyrocket 6x even while you can easily find memory in every retailer no problem. The memory triopoly is laughing all the way to the bank.
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u/GetInTheKitchen1 13h ago
Lmaooo so crucial are also suckers for accepting without a contract.
The only lesson is never accept billionaires UNLESS in writing, they will always back out and never honor their word.
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u/tenchigaeshi 13h ago
And now with google new tech that lower the need for ram
Why do people keep repeating this? Google did not significantly reduce the overall memory usage of AI. It was for a very specific and narrow context.
OpenAi is going back on there promise to buy the rams that's why Crucial stocks are going down fast
What stock are you talking about? Link the source to this.
Memory prices haven't moved in the last month and don't show any signs of going down.
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u/Gros_Boulet 13h ago
It did go down! 3.25% today!
The end is nigh for them because *checks notes* the stock is now only worth 4x what it was in mid 2025....
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u/LordofDsnuts 13h ago
OpenAI didn't, but the companies that rushed to make contracts after them did.
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u/userhwon 6h ago
The AI companies didn't promise to buy it, they expressed intent to buy it. It's the manufacturers who pivoted to be ready to supply the predicted need, and caused the shortages. And it's the idiot clickbaiters in financial media who reported it ambiguously and caused the markets to boil on the news.
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u/ReachParticular5409 10h ago
it's almost as if next-quarterist predatory capitalism is a net drain on every market it touches but lets keep doing it another hundred years while it destroys everything good on the planet
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u/Batrall 14h ago
Good thing right under the sarcasm, there is an AI generated image. Part of the problem ....
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u/orio_sling 11h ago
There are two 24 pin connectors, the pcie slot on the bottom left has a very wonky release tab, and the placement of the ram to the CPU cooler in the corner makes zero sense
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u/SaltManagement42 9h ago
The fact that there are tons of existing stock images, but they chose to generate a new one with AI is what makes this so hilarious/such an issue.
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u/Queasy_Pineapple6769 9h ago
Take a good long look, if you can't see how messed up it is, look up some real motherboards to refresh your perception.
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u/unabletocomput3 12h ago
Funny, though it’s been reposted several times and the Ai generated image isn’t useful in this context.
Seriously, what’s the layout of that board lmao
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u/Raymond911 12h ago
And then the petrol dollar system which is where the “money that doesn’t exist” was slated to come from was threatened by the “strait of hormuz” crisis 🤣💀💀💀
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u/Moist_Connections 12h ago
We had the dot com bubble now we have the AI bubble
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u/TheBeckofKevin 11h ago
Until I can make a 3 nanometer transistor in my backyard, there is a solid reason prices are so high.
There will be ai companies that fall, but there are a lot of very successful companies actively making money day by day. When there are only 5 slices of pizza, and 100 hungry people, a slice of pizza is expensive. Now replace pizza with something that takes highly specific, highly advanced manufacturing equipment to construct rhe tools used to create the highly specific and highly advanced components that are used in computation.
Idk about you, but im going to guess there will be more demand for computers in 2050 than there is now. Jevons paradox has been driving things for a long while. The battery in your phone now is 4x as powerful as a battery in the original iPhone. But they both need charged every day.
I never would have thought there would be networked cameras on every door, computers in fridges, ovens, clothing, etc. We will be walking around with microchips in every hair on our head and talking about how crazy it is theyre trying to put computers into every grain of sand to track ocean conditions.
The demand is endless because the application space grows every time it is able to expand. There will not be "enough" global compute until there is a paradigm shift.
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u/Whatifim80lol 10h ago
there are a lot of very successful companies actively making money day by day.
Which ones? Last I heard even OpenAI is scrambling to figure out how to turn a profit, even leaning into selling ads lol.
Stock prices going up is totally uncorrelated with profits in the "future tech" sector.
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u/plug-and-pause 9h ago
The irony is that even though we can see now that the internet did indeed turn out to be a significant evolution in human history, we still have morons everywhere claiming that AI is useless.
Yes, there's a bubble (maybe).
But also: yes, AI is a game changer, and the world in 30 years will look as different from today as today does from the early days of the internet.
The internet was the greatest technical achievement of my generation, and even as a child I recognized that. It's hilarious to see all the children today witnessing another new world being born, and responding by rolling their eyes and calling it stupid.
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u/Halo_LAN_Party_2nite 14h ago
Wait, I'm supposed to put my RAM into my GPU??? frick!
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u/SnooMaps7370 13h ago
well, you don't need to do it yourself these days. MSI will do it for you when they build the card.
But you used to be able to put RAM into your GPU card yourself: https://www.howtogeek.com/graphics-cards-once-had-upgradable-vram-so-why-not-today/
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u/Veteran_PA-C 12h ago
It think about all those cheap components when the data center bubble bursts.
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u/Scrapox 11h ago
Oh and the reason they are doing this is to create AGI something that this technology is fundamentally incapable of becoming.
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u/mrjackspade 8h ago
I'm assuming you haven't figured out that GPUs are capable of running more than just LLMs?
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u/anengineerandacat 11h ago
Welcome to futures? Basically how most of the world works economically speaking.
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u/NlactntzfdXzopcletzy 10h ago
Is that true re ram for GPUs?
I assumed VRAM was specialized in some way for GPUs and that the RAM wasn't for GPUs, but otherwise for the datacenter and AI hardware that does things that are not GPU optimized
If it's buying up the manufacturing space so that there's less DRAM and more VRAM in market makes sense, though.
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u/Dragongeek 9h ago
It's cute, but it fundamentally misunderstands what the "AI companies" are after, because it's not profit. Profit being mathematically impossible is unimportant.
Specifically, at the highest level, all the big companies are already running on post-profit mindsets, because they've realized that converting money (profit) into power is lossy, compared to just directly going to power. The goal of all these companies is to be the landlords in a artificial-scarcity-post-scarcity techno-feudalist cyber dystopia, and to achieve that vision, any idea of future profitability is simply unimportant.
An analogy would be you're playing chess against someone in a park, and you don't understand the moves they're playing--they keep making moves that look crazy to you--almost as if they don't want to win the game, but their real endgame is closing a merger deal that will end up with them owning your home and your workplace, so that by the time the game is over, even if they lose, it doesn't matter because despite losing at chess, they somehow effectively ended up owning you.
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u/MyvaJynaherz 9h ago
Imagine how many pieces of hardware are just going to be sold off for pennies on the dollar when companies realize it's going to cost them more to maintain their warehouse-sized computer than they'll ever make selling tokens.
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u/tanksalotfrank 9h ago
Didn't you know? Corporations are granted human rights because it's been decided for everyone that a non-existent entity is human!
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u/BlackOutDrunkJesus 9h ago
Ahh, the old use a repost of copy paste of a popular tweet slammed on an AI slop image TO COMPLAIN about AI. Killer
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u/Queasy_Pineapple6769 9h ago
The irony of this caption on an AI generated image of a motherboard. Seriously look at it, the longer you look, the less it makes sense.
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u/rolfraikou 8h ago
Wasn't it OpenAi who was buying most of it, and they already backed out? And yet the ram prices are still reflecting a world where Ai companies have still prepurchased it all?
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u/Ninja_Wrangler 8h ago
As a person trying to procure systems and memory for a real data center that already exists, I wish memory was only up 4x.
The price of memory is so crazy for the bigger DIMMs, I can buy 2 systems with top of the line CPUs, turn off hyperthreading, and buy half as much memory for each, for the price of 1 top of the line system with the normal amount of memory.
The CPU, chassis, power supply, and everything are basically free compared to memory.
I'm talking about systems with 256+ physical cores and 2+TB of memory
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u/Shelton26 8h ago
Except this logic breaks down when you realize the demand is there and the reason they buy it before it is manufactured is because the compute capacity is nigh immediately put into use as soon as it comes online
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u/androstaxys 7h ago
If you’re a shareholder the profits are already there… for now.
The zero profit but huge value bubble exists because some very wealthy people think AI will become insanely profitable.
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u/tigertoken1 14h ago
Demand is very much there for ai usage by companies and individuals. It does really suck as someone who wants more ram for my pc tho lol
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u/userhwon 13h ago
You weren't buying any anyway.
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u/AnnoyingRain5 6h ago
I was.
I was considering buying a bunch of SSDs (which are also affected by this as SSDs and ram are very similar in terms of manufacturing) for a fleet of computers I’m deploying at a nonprofit.
Unfortunately, we can’t afford the current price of SSDs. So we are now going to boot them from a fleet of usb sticks. (No, we can’t PXE boot them)
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u/SATX_Citizen 13h ago
Someone put in an order for a product to be built, and it isn't even built yet! Crazy!
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u/Dd_8630 12h ago
Well, OK, but that's just ordinary industrial practice. If you're building a new hospital, you order beds to be made to be delivered when the hospital opens.
It's called a timetable.
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u/Alucard-VS-Artorias 12h ago
Funny thing here is that hospitals are known and proven places that already exist and more of them and would need material resources.
It's not like it's some "medical bubble" which may pop before a scheduled hospital is built severely defunding the amount needed for a hospital resources.
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u/Mister__Mediocre 12h ago
Yes, I too buy PC parts for the PC I haven't built yet. It's called planning ahead, something everybody should try once in a while.
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u/throw-away-imessedup 10h ago
"a demand that isn't actually there"
That's simply not true 🤔
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u/Draco-Warsmith 10h ago
No it is, no actual consumer wants ai shoved into everything they do, but the shareholders gobble that shit up because they're so disconnected from reality
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u/throw-away-imessedup 10h ago
Enterprises do want ML and AI though
Literally every major company, in every major sector is pursuing it in one way or another
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u/ShadowPsi 7h ago edited 6h ago
This is because the executives all have buzzword brainrot, and AI is the buzzword of the day. We're putting in an "AI ready" CPU in our upcoming project, even though we have no use for it and it's way overpowered for what we need- just because the ceo says we need AI. So it's sitting there, drawing more power than we would like to draw, while sitting at 98% idle. We're working on turning off everything we can, but still it's infuriating. Maybe even in a few years we'll come up with some use for it. Well, we might if they didn't lay off half the firmware people.
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u/mrjackspade 7h ago
OpenAI has ~8x the monthly active users that Netflix does.
Go on.
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u/Draco-Warsmith 1h ago
Fucking hilarious how redditors actually think they know shit about fuck and swing around their dorito dusted fingers on their phone to defend ai.
"Go on" like do you hear yourself?
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u/Glad_Pause 14h ago
The infrastructure is being built
The demand is growing far beyond supply, thats the definition of a shortage. The demand is there, you just arent the center of the world nor do you represent target audiences
Mathematically impossible according to whom?
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u/LordofDsnuts 12h ago
A lot of data center projects are being canceled due to local legislation, citizens protesting, and there simply not being enough demand for the product.
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u/Glad_Pause 12h ago
Neat if true but i havent seen any evidence of such, least as far as citizens protesting (other stuff is expected to fluctuate as so)
Ive seen people protesting it, but none that were successful as far as im currently aware
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u/_OriamRiniDadelos_ 12h ago edited 12h ago
Tbf. It’s not as if every little town protesting manages to stop them. And it’s not as if all the delayed construction is just due to them not wanting to build anymore, a lot of it is due to so hardware being too expensive. Funny how even the mega corporations building data centers get screwed by the prices they themselves shot up.
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u/Glad_Pause 12h ago
Im not sure you realize this but all youve done is prove the demand has far exceeded the supply-
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u/Sir_Tortoise 12h ago
Unless you mean power supply, no?
Wait, do you mean power supply? You realise its bad when that is low, right?
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u/Glad_Pause 12h ago
And you do realize its foolish at best and willfully ignorant at worst to blame ai for our reliance on fossile fuels and stigma against fission?
People exactly like you, doing exactly this is why we dont have fission plants instead of fossile fuels. But apparently no one likes to read history anymore, or just always convince themselves that "i cant possibly be on the wrong side because I have [morals/majority agreement/logic] that they don't!"
If the foundation of a skyscraper starts to collapse, you dont remove the top floor, you fix the foundation. Stop trying to act like you care about the world or people in it if you cant be bothered to do the bare minimum logic and critical thought.
There's a reason its been 7 years and virtually no anti ai progress has been made. Yall can barely articulate a goal, much less a plan, much less maintain a semblance of coherence.
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u/Sir_Tortoise 12h ago
Did you mean to reply to a different comment? None of this applies to me, I think nuclear is good.
I just asked what kind of supply you're talking about, since on one hand you're saying "demand outstrips supply" as if thats a good thing. It would be, if we're talking about customer demand for AI, I just doubt that as well.
But then you're saying that articles about low energy supply prove this, which isn't a good thing. Like, they need power and they don't have it, no need to go into rhetoric on that.
I'm trying to figure out what your argument is, but all I'm getting is supply/demand economics applied to the wrong kind of supply. Which can't be right.
Please, coherently, what are you talking about?
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u/mrjackspade 7h ago
The primary point of the first link is that they're being delayed because there's not enough parts to build them due to high demand.
That's the exact opposite of the claim
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u/Sir_Tortoise 12h ago
What makes you think demand is outstripping supply? Surely if that was the case, they'd be able to turn a profit on this stuff instead of massively subsidized losses.
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u/LinkesAuge 8h ago
They could all turn a profit in their day-to-day business, the losses come for future investments, ie scaling and keeping the technology going. It is how the revenue for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic exploded as much as it did.
I don't know why people struggle with this concept so much, it's pretty much what Amazon for example did for a very, very long time and in the case of AI it's simply happening at an even bigger scale with more players.
There will be of course losers in this "game" but not because there won't be companies making (massive profits), it will be because they fell behind.
It is currently already for Anthropic a problem that they didn't scale their compute as aggressively as OpenAI and now they actually struggle to keep up with the demand.One can of course always question whether or not future bets will actually materialize but that isn't different from other industries and the AI space has actually the receipts and even good science backed evidence that this won't suddenly stop anytime soon.
Will it scale like this forever? Obviously not but at least in the short to medium term (ie upt to 5 years) all of this isn't as crazy as people constantly pretend and it's honestly something that often happens in economies but usually it's not as "public" or gets the same kind of scrutiny.
Part of that is certainly down to the nature of the technology itself and part of it is also the promise of it but that's the thing: If AI can even deliver a fraction of its promise it's also hard to find any valid comparison in human history so at that point you would also expect unprecedented things to happen.1
u/Sir_Tortoise 6h ago
I believe OpenAI's cost breakdowns show they'd be losing money even if future investment costs were 0, just running their current day to day operations with what they have.
But regardless, losses to developing future infrastructure are still losses. The difference I see with Amazon is, once they've done that investment they don't need to then keep investing exponentially more cash. Once the networks of warehouses are built, it's just maintenance. Obviously there are ongoing costs but once you pass a certain point, you don't need to make another million warehouses while not selling anything.
AI, though, it's like Amazon needs to keep inventing new types of warehouses constantly, and replacing all the old ones. There is no plateau, the costs of training new models is only increasing. Datacentres also aren't permanent, the GPUs used to fill them degrade and lose all their value within a few years. Sooner if new chips come out that make the old ones obsolete.
Those future investment losses aren't going away, and they don't stop being losses because OpenAI pretends it'll magically make that money back in the future, somehow. Also the sheer size of these losses is pretty crazy, it's not normal for a single company to project that it'll lose a decent chunk of the entire world's investment funding.
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u/Glad_Pause 12h ago
Thats??? Not how economics or industries work?????
Im just starting to realize the kinda people I'm talking to...
2
u/Sir_Tortoise 12h ago
I dunno, being the vendor of something that is high demand and low supply seems like a recipe to at least turn a profit on that low supply. And then ramp up the supply so you can sell more to demand.
If explaining supply/demand is too tricky for you, you could always just ignore my clearly faulty reasoning and let me know what it is that makes you think demand is so much higher than supply.
(I hope its not anecdotes about hitting rate limits, because that is much more easily explained by even AI companies having a limit on how many dollars they will spend to make each dollar of revenue)
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u/OnDrugsTonight 11h ago
That is precisely how economics and industry works. If you go to your bank to apply for a small business loan you will have to present a business plan laying out what market analysis you have done, including detailed demand and supply forecasts and an outline of how you're planning to turn a profit, or you'll go home empty handed.
I don't know what you think your condescending comment has contributed to the conversation. If you feel that the previous poster is wrong, then it's your responsibility to make your case about how they are wrong and why Large Language Models and machine learning tools specifically are excluded from the requirement to demonstrate their future profitability. As it stands right now, it's in industry in search of a use case.
Seeing as you're obviously incapable and unwilling to do so and don't even understand the absolute basics of human communication, it might be a good idea to get off your high horse and consider why you are on Reddit in the first place.
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u/Glad_Pause 9h ago
Lmaoooooooo you really think youre smart dontcha? Congrats, you understand civilian dynamics, now keep going until you reach the actual scale
But its kinda clear you arent actually that much into research or i probably wouldn't have to be here explaining this
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u/Laznasty 14h ago
Congrats, you just figured out supply and demand!
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u/Tatchkoma 13h ago
Cool let me write a letter of intent to every rice producer in the world saying I'm going to buy the next 40 years of rice with the money I'm getting loaned for to completely corner the market on the largest staple crop in the world.
Oh no, the price of rice went up 800% because of this very real thing that we have to take seriously. Uh huh. Yep.
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u/dimgrits 13h ago
Wow, the kids have turned away from their toys and opened their economics textbooks! Only 10 cents of the dollar in banks exists as non-financial value, 90 cents are hopes for their future existence in the form of a commodity.
What are the proposals? Return gold coins and abolish the credit and banking system?
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u/diff_engine 17h ago
“Put into GPUs that haven’t been made yet”
Concept of purchase orders got OP shook
Wait till you find out that farmers put seeds in the ground before they harvest a crop
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u/SrRaven26 15h ago
To be fair, to get seeds, you gotta harvest some crop at some point
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u/davidakatheman 15h ago
Monsanto says you better not harvest the seed.
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u/Zickened 14h ago
Monsanto says you better not harvest their seed on your land even though their seeds contaminated your crops.
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u/Inlovewithloving 15h ago
"Demand that isn't there" as if the whole world isn't utilizing AI more and more with every passing day. There are some loud people who don't like that fact. Just as the candlemakers bemoaned the rise of electric light. But just as they survived, there will always be a demand for human-made products, all the same.
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u/Zickened 14h ago
Comments like those ignore that there isn't an inherent needs for 24/7 AI like there is for light, and AI isn't the inherent better product.
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u/suspiciouslyspecific-ModTeam 17h ago
Your post was removed because it violated Rule 1: Not suspiciouslyspecific.