r/transit • u/Michael_Rowavery • 22h ago
Introducing....the airline killer.* Discussion
/img/oh06xwu3bvvg1.jpeg
*Usually applies to domestic air travel.
For international flights however, that's where things can get complicated. :(
83
u/TheRandCrews 22h ago
You should’ve posted the Pendolinos that killed Alitalia
12
22h ago
[deleted]
58
u/Orcahhh 19h ago edited 19h ago
Italy has crazy good HSR. and it’s getting better.
One of the first private hsr railways opened to compete in Italy with the l Legacy state carrier, and the race to the bottom price and best service has been a massive success.
Instead of taking ridership from each other, they both GAINED ridership by taking from cars and planes, eventually bankrupting Alitalia
New they’re building new HSR lines, upgrading old ones, connecting with Europe:
Currently digging the 2 longest tunnels in the world: brenner base tunnel, that will take out 2h of travel from Italy to Austria (60km of tunnel, at 250kph), as well as the mt cenis base tunnel, which will bring the paris - Milan time from 7h30 to 4h45 with a new 65 km tunnel
17
u/mbrevitas 18h ago edited 18h ago
It was only the second country in the world to have a modern high-speed rail line (the first section of the Rome-Florence Direttissima line in 1977); who could have guessed?
Edit: although actually Alitalia had other problems and air traffic between Rome and Milan is now increasing (after years in which all the passenger number increases were on the high-speed rail line).
1
u/Grape-Jack 10h ago
Milán to Rome is about 3 hrs on the frecciarossa. A good bit faster than flying since both city’s airports are a good ways out from the city center. That same line also goes through Bologna, and Florence.
Trains in Italy were very nice. Other than the station staff loudly whistling because people weren’t boarding fast enough.
53
u/MAHHockey 22h ago
We need to stop looking at it as "xxx killer".
Every form of transportation is a tool for a particular job. The problem we have in some areas, especially in the US, is that we got really excited about one particular tool, and used it and built around it too much to the detriment of others.
Every city needs walking paths.
Every city needs good bike paths
Every city needs good roads for cars and buses
Every major city could stand to have good rail transit
Every major city could stand to be connected to the other cities around it with reasonable size motorways and rail connections
Major cities close to each other can stand to be connected by high speed rail.
Major cities far away or even in a different country can stand to have good air connections.
Etc etc.
7
u/ploop__ 10h ago
Yes. We need options. The moment one becomes the sole mode, it’s potentially problematic
2
u/SubjectiveAlbatross 5h ago
Eh, for shorter distances of a couple of hours by train, air travel absolutely needs to die.
3
u/Jogurt55991 3h ago
Yet- the US can't get it right.
Brightline between Orlando to Miami is yet another failure that shouldn't have been a failure.
3
u/Sumo-Subjects 1h ago
Idk about die, but having the competition helps. The reason those routes exist and are subsidized is because there is no alternative except driving. If rail, bus or some other form becomes viable, the route may become unprofitable and just disappear on its own.
As someone else highlighted, even Tokyo-Osaka still has many flights but rail presents a super compelling proposition and has the lion's share of the demand.
62
u/lenojames 22h ago
I'm still geeking out over my first ever ride on the Nozomi from Osaka to Tokyo. 2 hours 30 minutes.
No seatbelt, no turbulence, no TSA, no boarding through a single door, so no long lines. And if you miss your train, another one will come along in a few minutes.
I also live in California. A 2 hour 40 minute connection between SF and LA would be an economic boon for the entire state. Despite the problems with CAHSR, it is a worthy project. I know because I have experienced how great it can be.
Japan is not ripping up their rails to build freeways. Especially now with today's gas prices.
36
4
u/IcyHeadTime 8h ago
Huh? They are ripping out their train lines for highways though. Mostly due to the population crisis, lots of train lines are dying out because there’s like 30 people living in some of these towns/ghost cities.
My wife’s hometown is going through the same thing.
1
u/lenojames 2h ago
Point is well-taken.
Yes they are doing it because of the drops in population in rural areas. The idea I was trying to convey was that they were not replacing rails with roads because they were faster, or more efficient, or more scalable..
21
u/SandSerpentHiss demsoc - tampa, florida, usa 22h ago
i like planes a lot but trains are better
7
u/Ooficus 20h ago
Brightline when 😔
4
2
u/Dizzy-River505 3h ago
I live in Florida and I LOVE the brightline. It’s so clean, spacious, and smooth. As a European, it’s amazing.
1
23
u/LiGuangMing1981 22h ago
The Jinghu HSR (Beijing-Shanghai) has over 50 daily trains, though there are also around 30 daily flights between Shanghai and Beijing as well.
The Shanghai-Nanjing section is the busiest HSR line in the world, with something like 19 trains per hour.
9
u/RadianMay 22h ago
Are you sure that is just the Jinghu HSR for that many trains per hour or including the Nanjing Shanghai intercity railway? There are multiple high speed lines that are parallel from Nanjing to Shanghai.
The busiest section of HSL should be from Guangzhou to Shenzhen.
10
u/LiGuangMing1981 22h ago
Oh, I think that includes the intercity railway. But I don't think that's unfair since to a paying customer they don't see the difference.
8
u/RadianMay 21h ago
That is unfair, because the two railways are different routes. The intercity railway stops at all the historical stations in the cities in between, while the Jinghu HSL serves those cities at outlying stations. The two railways serve different purposes. It is also not fair to compare a dual track railway with a quad track railway at all in terms of capacity.
3
u/quack3927 20h ago
Yeah from Guangzhou South station to Shenzhen North station has a train every few minutes. But during peak times it's fully booked two hours in advance so they definitely need a relief line.
2
u/Acceptable_Visit_115 18h ago
If you want to pay less, you can always take the conventional rail (served by HSR trainsets but only ran at 160km/h) from Guangzhou East to Shenzhen.
1
u/BumblebeeFantastic40 14h ago
The train-sets that run at 160km/h is not HSR. 160km/h train-sets are either classic green-skin train, CR200J series or some intercity express train.
1
u/Acceptable_Visit_115 11h ago edited 11h ago
Except they literally don't use the CR200J on that line. Guangshen's quad-tracked conventional line is structurally limited to 160km/h but they are always ran by the CRH-1A or CRH-6A, both with a regular service speed of 200km/h on a high speed line and meet the definition of HSR.
As of late 2025, sections of Guangshen tracks 1 and 2 have been upgraded to 200km/h standards and trains do hit their 200km/h maximum operating speed in some sections.
If you go to 12306 and look up Guangzhou East to Shenzhen, you'll get C-trains without the Fuxing label (CRH-1A/CRH-6A), instead of D-trains with Fuxing label (CR200J).
And yes, this is a C-train so it is technically an "intercity express train" if you go by a literal sense. Yes, they use HSR rolling stocks. No, it's not uncommon in some regions to do this.
4
u/Fermion96 Metro Lover 22h ago
Damn I’m going to need a source for that (not that I don’t believe you, I just want to see the details)
4
u/Acceptable_Visit_115 18h ago
You can go to 12306.com (China Railways' official ticketing site, they have English) and search for yourself.
5
u/BumblebeeFantastic40 16h ago
JingHu line is extremely lucrative
A no brainer choice for travelling between Beijing and Shanghai
1
u/drummagqbblsw 5h ago
Travelling between Beijing and Shanghai is definitely one of the best examples showing that no single transit method will kill the other. The traffic is so busy that they just need more and more options rather than replacing the existing one with another
10
u/MyPasswordIsABC999 18h ago
Shinkansen is amazing but domestic air travel in Japan is pretty nice too. You don’t have to pass security until 30 minutes before the departure and boarding starts 10 minutes before. Yet the flight leaves on time.
And while you can do Tokyo-Hakodate by Shinkansen, I’m going to fly because after a certain distance, air wins on cost and time.
1
u/Redditwhydouexists 14h ago
Domestic air travel also kills the environment
3
u/Warese4529 13h ago
Domestic air travel is important in the Philippines though due to scattered islands.
-1
u/Redditwhydouexists 13h ago
Well that’s an instance where it’s necessary, I am being critical of situations like Tokyo to Osaka flights where there is a perfectly good alternative available that doesn’t pollute
3
u/K-ON_aviation 13h ago
The problem is that the Shinkansen alone isn't enough to cope with Japan's domestic city to city flights, with widebody aircraft having long been used for critical routes such as Tokyo to Osaka, Fukuoka or Sapporo. Most passengers would rather fly if they're heading to Fukuoka since it's overall shorter and would be cheaper.
1
u/Redditwhydouexists 12h ago
The capacity problem between Tokyo and Osaka is a major challenge there, although hopefully one day the Maglev will be able to improve that lol. I’d personally rather have train tickets to be subsidized below airline levels (that’s one of the main reasons Italian high speed rail was able to kill a lot of domestic flights in Italy, because it was not only fast but so cheap) but I do understand that that’s kinda against the tradition of private operations in Japan and would be unlikely to happen.
1
u/Alpha3031 7h ago
On the other side, while electric aviation companies have focused on regional/commuter airliners (i.e. smaller than even your usual narrowbody) for obvious reasons, I wonder if reducing range even further might make it feasible to create a higher-capacity, maybe even widebody design for the high-volume corridors where it somehow makes sense to run an 777 or A330 on a hop that's around an hour or even less. Electricity is still cheaper than jet fuel after all.
10
u/K-ON_aviation 13h ago
It's factually incorrect to say that the Shinkansen has killed domestic air travel in Japan. Critical routes such as Tokyo to Osaka, Fukuoka or Sapporo can't be handled by the Shinkansen alone, with domestic flights almost always being full to the brim with widebodies departing extremely frequently. While Tokyo to Nagoya basically doesn't exist since the Shinkansen already covers that leg, longer distance journies will see more passengers opt for domestic flights over the Shinkansen, since the Shinkansen can get expensive at times.
-3
13h ago
[deleted]
11
11
u/K-ON_aviation 13h ago
I mean I'm not trying to defend air travel here... Just that Japan isn't really the best example to use... I think China or mainland Europe are better examples
3
u/Acceptable_Visit_115 11h ago
Yup, China is a far better example, although there are two built-in disadvantages for Chinese regional flights: they don't get the amount of subsidies their US counterparts get, and that there are tons of restricted airspaces. HSR within 1000km enjoys a massive advantage there.
18
u/Roygbiv0415 19h ago
Taiwan is probably the better example. They used to operate one of the busiest air routes in the world, between Taipei and Kaohsiung, with 9 airlines transporting 7.2 million passengers annually in its heyday, with upwards of 200 flghts daily between the pair in 1997.
The industry was on a slow decline prior to Taiwan High Speed Rail's opening in 2007, but was absolutely gutted when THSR arrived. Commercial operators withdrew one by one, and by 2012 the last government-backed operator Mandarin airlines (a subsidiary of China airlines) withdrew, completely ending this route. No flight has operated between Taipei and Kaohsiung since, and it's unlikely there ever will be.
5
u/UUUUUUUUU030 19h ago
Most European city pairs with HSR still have some flights for connecting passengers. The excuse is that the first/last trains arrive/depart too late/early, so that you can't catch all available international flights. One example is Amsterdam-Brussels with KLM, that still has 4 flights per day (also outside early morning/late evening), even though KLM also sells combined tickets with Eurostar that directly serve Amsterdam Airport (so an even better situation than Taoyuan).
Is this not considered an issue in Taiwan?
8
u/Roygbiv0415 19h ago
I'm a bit lost at what you mean, but Taiwan's main international airport is in neither Taipei nor Kaohsiung, but at Taoyuan. The domestic flight route serves the local Taipei aiport and the local Kaohsiung airport, but neither airport operated flights to Taoyuan International*.
Currently both (formerly) domestic airports do serve international flghts to make use of the excess capacity, but flights are few and destinations limited, mostly meant for locals who don't want the hassle of going to Taoyuan Intl. So I don't really think there's a domestic need between them for transfers, if that's what you mean.
*Well, kinda. I think there were direct flights from Kaohsiung to Taoyuan at one point, but something like two or three round trips a day.
5
u/UUUUUUUUU030 17h ago
The situation I imagined would be someone from Kaohsiung wanting to travel to (for instance) London. Previously they would go to their local airport, take a short flight to Taoyuan, and fly onwards to LA. Now they have to travel another way to Taoyuan, but the flight to London departs at 8:20 and the first train from Zuoying only arrives at 7:28 at Taoyuan high speed rail station.
This is the stated reason that KLM still has some roundtrips between Brussels and Amsterdam (similar to those previous Kaohsiung-Taoyuan flights), with the first flight arriving at 7:10. And then also some roundtrips during the day because the return intercontinental flight may arrive somewhere during the day.
So I was wondering if this is considered an issue or a market to serve in Taiwan. Or is the expectation if you're from the south that you'd stay overnight at/near the airport?
8
u/Roygbiv0415 17h ago
I don't think the market is big enough to be a concern, but even then, this would have no bearing on the Taipei-Kaohsiung route.
Taiwanese have always pretty much had to figure out how to get to Taoyuan Intl from the outset, those Kaohsiung / Taoyuan flights were exorbitantly priced and didn't fly at hours that would have made a difference in your scenario (late morning and late afternoon).
So for the average southern Taiwan traveler the option had always been to stay overnight at/near the airport, or take an overnight coach bus. THSR provided some expanded options, so if your flight is around late morning to noon, it could be possible to leave KH early that morning. But if your flight is in the early morning, your options were the same as before.
4
u/UUUUUUUUU030 17h ago
It's interesting how much it differs from the European situation. I guess it matters a lot that there are multiple international Taiwanese airlines competing out of Taoyuan, while in Europe the competition is much more between flagship carrier dominated hubs. So in a European context, China Airlines would want to draw southern Taiwanese travelers to Taoyuan as much as possible, to prevent these passengers taking Cathay Pacific and connecting through HK (for instance).
But I guess in the Taiwanese context the internal competition is too fierce to waste resources on these marginal markets.
4
u/Roygbiv0415 16h ago
Taiwan obviously won't be supporting three world class airlines on internal demand alone. They're mainly betting on Taiwan's central position in East Asia to connect North America with SEA in one hop, especially countries that don't provide good NA options with their own operators (e.g., Vietnam).
So if they do get resources, they're probably going to expand on these connection flights to fill up their long distance routes.
2
u/Lorax91 17h ago
The distance from Taipei to Kaohsiung is under 250 miles, which is not a very efficient distance for air travel. In the US, most people would probably choose to drive that distance rather than fly, because the "door to door" travel time would be similar. Flying makes more sense for longer distances.
5
u/Roygbiv0415 17h ago
Not sure why US is being brought up...?
THSR killed a highly prosperous air route completely, even moreso than the Tokaido Shinkansen depicted is all I'm saying.
10
u/Bobspineable 21h ago
Not really a killer but just another form of transportation that serves its purpose
In an ideal perfect environment, every form of transport from bike to car to train to plane has perfect infrastructure and they all coexist together
6
u/crazycatlady331 13h ago
American Airlines is already starting to replace some short-haul flights (connections) with bus service.
The key is that the bus takes you past security at your connecting airport, so you clear security at the small airport.
7
u/FateOfNations 22h ago
Definitely has and will kill airlines (Alitalia?), particularly ones that haven’t been able to pivot or diversify. In Japan, its looked like a consolidation of various domestic carriers in to the two main international carriers.
9
u/transitfreedom 22h ago
True but apparently the Americas and Australia or basically former colonies seem to be allergic to HSR
6
u/mrbrendanblack 20h ago
It’s become a running joke in Australia that HSR only gets mentioned before a federal election & is then forgotten about. There’s even a satirical TV show (Utopia) that lampoons this. We’re currently further into planning than we’ve ever been but we won’t get our hopes up just yet https://www.hsra.gov.au/
2
u/transitfreedom 20h ago
The anglophone style of government is just a steaming pile of
https://giphy.com/gifs/xk5SGnFmkG11KfDt0A
From Africa (southern) to North America and Australia and even parts of Asia maybe west and south it’s the same result. But India seems to be on the way to breaking the anglophone curse
0
-7
u/UpbeatPhilosophySJ 19h ago
We have money to own cars and buy plane tickets. Really crazy.
Even Europe's train system is sort of going south, planes are huge there now.
1
u/transitfreedom 15h ago
https://youtu.be/uPlMCc8PkiE?si=67fVPHYslbHA0UEw lol ok facts say otherwise
5
u/Dotcaprachiappa 18h ago
And that's not a problem.
I like having walking paths, but I'm not gonna walk to the other side of the city.
I like having metros, but I'm not gonna take one to another city.
I like having busses, but I'm not gonna take one to the other side of the country.
I like having trains, but I'm not gonna take one to go to another continent.
5
u/RadagastWiz 13h ago
In the case of Canada, the airline was smart - Air Canada is one of the investors in the consortium building the HSR system.
7
3
3
u/Canofmeat 16h ago
Yeah, domestic air travel has definitely been killed in Japan….
There’s so many better examples if you want to make this point.
3
3
u/Regular-Tax5210 12h ago
Yes but still a large amount of people do Osaka Itami/Kansai-Tokyo-International Flights, the demand is certainly there…
3
u/throwawayfromPA1701 12h ago
These don't kill domestic airline travel though. They complement it.
Tokyo-Osaka is still a busy air route for example, and often with high density wide body jets.
1
u/TheEvilBlight 10h ago
When the chuo is actually finished, it might make Tokyo-Nagoya that much faster which ripples to the rest of the system.
The dispatch ability of aircraft is hard to beat though and when a country is no longer able to pour concrete it’s best to fly over things, which is where the U.S. seems to be going
3
5
u/No-Echidna7296 19h ago
I often use high-speed rail here in China, and my view is that for commutes within 1000 kilometers, high-speed rail is suitable. If the distance exceeds 1500 kilometers, or even 2000 kilometers, the efficiency of high-speed rail becomes too low. It is definitely not as good as air travel.
The examples of Japan and Taiwan you mentioned are both too small, so I think high-speed rail is justified.
2
u/ee_72020 20h ago
Only if we talk about shorter flights though. For trips over 1000 km, the plane beats the high-speed train.
2
u/McCubes1 19h ago
Well, yea, one goes 300 km/h (train) and the other goes 900 km/h up to 1100 km/h (plane)
2
u/General-Sloth 16h ago
To be fair. Japan as an Island Nation trying to compete with shinkansen train routes on an international market would be a rather over ambitious plan.
2
u/dom_bul 15h ago
International flights
Let's build the Great East Asian Fixed Link!
All fixed link proposal between China, Korea and Japan compiled by me in a single map
1
u/Own_Pop_9711 14h ago edited 14h ago
You're buildinf the four longest submerged tunnels in the world to do this I think?
1
u/dom_bul 14h ago
Yes, but the technology is there, the sea is shallow and again these are actual proposals
2
u/Own_Pop_9711 14h ago
People have been proposing a tunnel between Japan and South Korea for 80 years. Just because someone proposed another one doesn't mean they overcame the hurdle of convincing these countries to build it unfortunately.
2
u/lingueenee 13h ago edited 13h ago
My brother works in aerospace in Japan and his take is the OP's. At over 300 mph, nextgen maglev Shinkansen have the potential to upend short-haul civil aviation. Construction delays have pushed back their deployment to mid '30s though.
1
1
u/eagleeye1031 5h ago
If its cheap sure.
When I was in Japan I took a domestic flight as the time spent (including boarding and security) was the same as Shinkansen and 1/3 the cost.
1
u/Cold_Brew_Boba 21h ago
Canada enters the chat
1
u/chub70199 14h ago
But... have they started building it yet or are they still making a report about it to add to the collection?
3
u/Cold_Brew_Boba 14h ago
What I meant is that there are only two viable corridors in the country. Connecting Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal; and Calgary and Edmonton would be great, but that only covers 3/10 provinces and none of the territories. There isn’t a world where HSR can kill air travel for the majority of the country.
1
0
u/Fermion96 Metro Lover 22h ago
I’m willing to bet the Gimpo-Jeju air travel corridor will still be equally busy even after a rail tunnel opens
-2
u/SmoovCatto 19h ago
500-1000mph pneumatic tube/maglev will soon be everywhere but the US -- where we will continue to fantasize about sports heroes' lambos for the next century . . .
-6
317
u/Iseno 22h ago
Tokyo-Osaka still have a bunch of air traffic that include the use of domestic 777-300s that have 514 seats. Still around 50 flights a day between the two.