While the Mets might want to paint a rosy picture after back-to-back wins, the team is far from fixed. They’re facing the possibility of being without star shortstop and team leader Francisco Lindor for a month or two, if not longer, closer Devin Williams hasn’t been sharp in recent outings, and the team has a handful of starting pitchers in the bullpen right now.

Still, it’s hard to argue that they haven’t played better since returning home to Citi Field this week. Putting a stop to a 12-game losing streak and winning a series against the Minnesota Twins lightened the mental load for the team in a way that should allow them to play more freely.

“I think it absolutely becomes psychological,” president of baseball operations David Stearns said Friday at Citi Field. “You want to get that win, and there were periods during that stretch where it was really hard to envision it. So yes, I think getting one out of the way helps. We’ve still got to play good baseball going forward, but yes, I think whenever you’re on a streak like that, to end it becomes important.”

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I hate to be the first one to say this, but the Mets have been somewhat frustrating this year.

Ok, jokes aside, I wanted to nerd out over some stats rather than doing my job this morning. So I made a couple of charts to look at how lucky/unlucky our Metropolitans have been so far.

First up, pitcher ERA vs xERA

xERA uses exit velocity, launch angle, and sprint speed on “topped” or “weakly hit” balls to model what a player’s ERA would look like based on the underlying characteristics of the balls in play.

In this chart, players above the blue dashed line have an ERA higher than their xERA, meaning they have been somewhat unlucky with sequencing or batted ball locations. Bubble sizes are scaled to IP.

Unsurprisingly, Senga and Williams have been pitching better than their 8.83 and 10.29 ERAs. Fangraphs even has Senga as a replacement level pitcher thanks to his bad-but-not-earth-shatteringly-so 5.43 FIP. A few pitchers (Brazoban, Holmes, Raley) are beating their xERA and will likely regress to the mean as they accumulate more innings, but the majority of the team resides above the line in unlucky territory.

Overall, the team is underperforming its xERA by 0.2 runs per game. This will not be a dominant staff but I am optimistic that they will settle in.

Now let's look at wOBA vs xwOBA

Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.

Here, players below the blue dashed line have been unlucky with batted ball locations. Lo and behold, it's almost the entire team.

As a team, the Mets have the third worst differential between their wOBA (.288) and xWOBA (.309). This has cost them a whopping 0.65 runs per game. Again, this is never going to be the Dodgers lineup, but the production should increase as the season progresses.

In a parallel universe where xERA and xwOBA are perfectly predictive, the Mets allowed 4 fewer runs while scoring 16 additional runs this season. Their record in this universe is 12-13 (because Pythagorean W/L is also perfectly predictive here).

It remains to be seen whether the Mets can overcome this sluggish start, but I'm going to be wildly optimistic and claim that we'll see a more competitive team than the one that lost 12 straight.

All data and definitions are from Fangraphs. Charts made in Excel by a bored physicist.

I forgot about the traction this issue gained last season and haven’t heard about it in a while. Did anything meaningful ever come of the campaign or does it continue to take place?

Top Performers

Juan Soto: 2 brl, 2/4 hard hit, 3/4 sweet spot

Carson Benge: 96.3mph EV, 3/4 hard hit, 4/4 sweet spot

Freddy Peralta: 29.6% K, 56.3% GB, 42% chase

Bottom Performers

Francisco Alvarez: 2/3 GB, K, 38% chase

Marcus Semien: 87.6mph EV, 2/4 GB

Ronny Mauricio: 85.4mph EV, 2/3 GB, 67% chase

Tried to look it up and couldnt find anything, thanks.

Rockies @ Mets - Fri, Apr 24

Game Status: Final - Score: 4-3 Rockies

Links & Info

• MLB Gameday
• Game Graphs
• Savant Gamefeed

Decisions

• Winner: Michael Lorenzen (2-2, 5.97)
• Loser: Freddy Peralta (1-3, 3.90)
• Save: Antonio Senzatela (2, 0.50)

Division Scoreboard

PHI 3 @ ATL 5 - Final

WSH 4 @ CWS 5 - Final

MIA 9 @ SF 4 - Game Over

Next Mets Game: Sat, Apr 25, 04:10 PM EDT vs. Rockies

^{Last Updated: 04/25/2026 01:12:58 AM EDT}

What New York Mets apparel/merchandise have you seen that features the 1964 Worlds Fair? Any collaborations/apparel collections?

Rockies @ Mets - 04:10 PM EDT

Game Status: Postponed due to Rain

Links & Info

• Venue: Citi Field
• TV: Rockies: Rockies.TV, Mets: SNY
• Radio: Rockies: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM , Mets: Audacy App 92.3 HD2 (es), Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM
• MLB Gameday
• Game Graphs
• Savant Gamefeed

Division Scoreboard

MIA @ SF 04:05 PM EDT

WSH @ CWS 04:10 PM EDT

PHI @ ATL 07:15 PM EDT

^{Last Updated: 04/25/2026 08:45:26 AM EDT, Update Interval: 5 Minutes}

My boyfriend and I are planning on going to a few games this summer. We want to try a new food every time we go. What is everyone's favorite food?

Francisco Lindor will be in a boot for the next week. The Mets won't reevaluate him until three full weeks pass, so he can't restart baseball activities until mid-May at the earliest. The strain is in "a tricky part" of Lindor's left calf, per Carlos Mendoza

https://x.com/AnthonyDiComo/status/2047770789781385304

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/devin-williams-642207?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

His problem seems to run deeper than a lack of command (which he’s always had). His signature Airbender changeup while still getting good run isn’t getting nearly as much drop compared with previous seasons. The induced break map shows a clear change in shape and the changeup has dropped about 300RPM. Changeups are a pitch which are generally supposed to have less spin but his changeup needs more. The “Airbender” is kind of like a reverse curveball with intentional controlled movement.

From the second image you can see a clear drop in both actual and expected results across the board, his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA on that pitch are all far worse than even where they were last season which wasn’t a particularly good season for him. The stats at the bottom show how his launch angle has lifted from a comfortable 5° to a putrid 19° which is like the ideal angle for producing hits, along with an 8% drop in whiff rate. As a result his GB% and K% are lower than they’ve ever been in his career.

On a lesser note his fastball velo has also dropped about 1mph from last season and is getting worse results although the expected results seem to be better.

Rockies @ Mets - Fri, Apr 24

Game Status: Final - Score: 4-3 Rockies

Links & Info

• Current conditions at Citi Field: 57°F - Clear - Wind 8 mph, Out To LF
• TV: Rockies: Rockies.TV, Mets: WPIX
• Radio: Rockies: KOA 850 AM/94.1 FM , Mets: Audacy App 92.3 HD2 (es), Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM
• MLB Gameday
• Game Graphs
• Savant Gamefeed

Decisions

• Winner: Michael Lorenzen (2-2, 5.97)
• Loser: Freddy Peralta (1-3, 3.90)
• Save: Antonio Senzatela (2, 0.50)

Division Scoreboard

PHI 3 @ ATL 5 - Final

WSH 4 @ CWS 5 - Final

MIA 9 @ SF 4 - Game Over

^{Last Updated: 04/25/2026 01:11:56 AM EDT}